Archive for Rankings

Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher (Part I) Episode w/ Alex Chamberlain

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February 25, 2022

The Starting Pitcher (Part I) Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Alex Chamberlain

Alex’s pitch tool

  • Comparing players with similar pitches
  • Finding undervalued players

Strategy Section

  • Pitchers most likely to throw 200 innings in 2022
  • Starting pitcher strategy
    • General – Auction vs. Snake Draft
    • Riskiness in the elite starting pitchers this season
    • Two 1As vs. an ace strategy for 2022
  • Effect of the Universal DH
    • Pick the AL pitcher over the NL pitcher?
    • Draft a pitcher in a particular division?
  • Undervalued prospects & sleeper pitchers

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Michael Simione’s Second Base Rankings

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February 25, 2022
Michael Simione’s Second Base Rankings
Rank Player Team Position(s) ADP Notes
1 Trea Turner LAD 2B, SS 1.25 The clear number one in my opinion, is very consistent and will give you all five categories. Expect a ton of runs from Turner sitting on top of that Dodgers lineup all season.
2 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 17.63 At age 25 Albies put up 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He could definitely go 30/20 again next season.
3 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 32.5 Merrifield is the king of PAs. In the past three seasons, no one has walked up to the plate more than Merrifield. The power might be dwindling but the speed still holds true.
4 Marcus Semien TEX 2B, SS 41.25 After a monster season, Semien moves to a pitcher’s ballpark and into a lineup that is nowhere near the one in Toronto. He should still be good, just as good.
5 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B, SS 78.75 Those who have read my work know I am a huge Jorge Polanco and Jonathan India fan. Both can be grabbed in the middle rounds and both provide you with some pop and some speed. I really think these two should be targeted.
6 Jonathan India CIN 2B 83.63 Those who have read my work know I am a huge Jorge Polanco and Jonathan India fan. Both can be grabbed in the middle rounds and both provide you with some pop and some speed. I really think these two should be targeted.
7 Javier Baez DET 2B, SS 60.38 The highest EV/FB amongst second baseman belongs to Mr. Baez over here. Sure his plate discipline is horrendous but he keeps producing.
8 Brandon Lowe TB 2B 79.5 He produced exactly how we thought he would by giving you 39 home runs. Yet his ADP has dropped compared to last season.
9 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 85.25 The speed is virtually gone for Altuve but he still gives you four categories with a high floor average.
10 Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 2B, SS 69.38 There is a lot of Jazz love out there and I totally get it. I just think there could be a low floor there with his low contact rates.
11 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B, OF 87.5 If he could just stay healthy I fully believe Marte can be a top-five second baseman. He had a 139 wRC+ last season and a .385 wOBA, both fantastic numbers. Please stay healthy.
12 Tommy Edman STL 2B, OF 77.13 Edman provides you with a lot of speed and a decent average with double-digit home runs. He’s a great pick if you are thirsty for steals early on.
13 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 119.75 After the season we found out that LeMahieu played the entire season injured. A bounceback is likely.
14 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 149.63 I am a big Luis Urias fan and I think his breakout could continue. In the second half, he hit for a 123 wRC+, .850 OPS, and .217 ISO
15 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 133.25 Chris Taylor was a nice surprise last season as he finished 2021 with 20 home runs, 92 rubs, and 13 stolen bases. You can expect more of the same in 2022.
16 Ty France SEA 1B, 2B 151 France took some impressive strides last season. His MaxEV and EV/FB both increased by several points. He also had a 147 wRC+ in the second half while also cutting his strikeout rate by three points.
17 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 122.13 His multi-eligibility makes him an attractive option for your UT, CI, or MI position. While he doesn’t provide a ton of counting stats in one specific category he does help contribute in all five of them.
18 Enrique Hernandez BOS 2B, OF 221 I love me some Enrique Hernandez because he leads off (his manager loves him), will give you 80 runs, and should give you over 20 home runs.
19 Ryan McMahon COL 2B, 3B 164.13 McMahon should have 20 home run power once again and finds himself in the middle of that Rockies lineup. The problem is the Coors effect and he’s tough to start on the road.
20 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B, SS 175.88 Rodgers looks to fill in the two-hole and should see plenty of PAs. A solid average floor with some power potential.
21 Kolten Wong MLW 2B 176.5 Wong won’t give you a lot of one category but gives you a little bit of everything. 15 home runs and 15 steals is possible and since he looks to be in the leadoff spot he should help you get a bunch of runs.
22 Jonathan Schoop DET 1B, 2B 203 Schoop provides plenty of value since he is an accumulator who will see plenty of plate appearances on a Detroit Tigers team.
23 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B 165.38 Still a big injury mystery and without an update, we have to leave him here.
24 Eduardo Escobar NYM 2B, 3B 201.13 The Mets are a bit crowded but I think he will find plenty of playing time. I don’t think we see 28 home runs again but 25 is certainly possible.
25 Jean Segura PHI 2B 178 Segura is kind of like Kolten Wong where he doesn’t excel in one area but helps a little in all five categories.
26 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, SS, OF 224.88 Rojas is a popular name for draft and holds due to his playing time path and his multi-eligibility. He is a decent late speed option otherwise.
27 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, SS 234.25 With the DH coming we will no doubt see more of Gavin Lux. It’s now or never.
28 Andres Gimenez CLE 2B, SS 236.63 After an impressive campaign with the Mets Gimenez had a disappointing in 2021 with the Guardians. He does have an intriguing skill set though.
29 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF 304.75 McNeil just looked lost last season. The potential is there, between 2019 and 2020 he had a WRC+ of 141 with an OBP of .384.
30 Abraham Toro SEA 2B, 3B 254 15 home runs and five stolen bases seem plausible here.
31 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 257.13 Hampson will give you 10/10 production but the average will drag you down.
32 Cesar Hernandez WAS 2B 311.5 Sold out for power last season but lost average because of it. He is interesting as he is hitting in front of Soto and Bell which could lead to a ton of runs.
33 Nick Madrigal CHC 2B 286 If you are in need of average and steals this late in the draft, Madrigal is your guy.
34 Luis Arraez MIN 2B, 3B, OF 307.13 Think Madrigal but without the speed.
35 Adam Frazier SEA 2B 334.5 Frazier had that spectacular first half to only cool off big time in the second half. He is in a crowded situation but should still see plenty of PAs.
36 David Fletcher LAA 2B, SS 337.38 Average, speed and PAs make Fletcher a decent bench bat to have.
37 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 376.63 The Giants like to platoon him but he should still see a bunch of plate appearances.
38 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 SD 2B, 3B, SS 349.38 Kim will once again battle to see PA’s but the 10/10 potential makes him a decent bench bat.
39 Nick Solak TEX 2B 366.13 The foot-tapping you hear is me waiting for Solak to reach his potential.
40 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B 374.25 Hoerner is a solid player who will hit for average with speed, health continues to be the issue.

Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 Catcher Rankings

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February 21, 2022

More than any other position, how I approach drafting catchers will depend on my current roster construction as much as the actual player. Sometimes the “best” player available (according to my values) just won’t be a viable option given the state of my team stats prior.

With that in mind, here are my top-40 catchers for 2022. If you’re just joining us, you can find the first base ranks here and third base here. Read the rest of this entry »


Michael Simione’s First Base Rankings

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February 14, 2022
Michael Simione’s First Base Rankings
Rank Player Team Position(s) ADP Notes
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 6.61 Produced the season we all knew he could. Can’t help but be curious as to what his numbers will look like outside of Buffalo.
2 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 22.66 Mr. Consistency will produce in every category except for steals. The high average and high power output make him the clear #2.
3 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 58.84 Goldschmidt provides value because of the stolen bases. There is virtually no speed at this position and Goldy gives you an advantage there.
4 Matt Olson OAK 1B 51.2 Olson finally seems to be reaching his potential hitting for a high average with a ton of power. If the Athletics trade him and he moves on to a competitive team he could easily put up over 100 RBIs once again.
5 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 66.45 Last season Alonso improved his O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, SwStr%, and K%. Alonso hit .262 and it could rise even higher next season.
6 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 89.41 Sits in a great lineup with a ton of RBI opportunity. If his average continues to dip he might not be worth his draft price.
7 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 117.23 After the season we found out that LeMahieu played the entire season injured. A bounceback is likely.
8 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 113.41 The fence being moved out will hurt his power production but he still gives you a decent average as well as a little bit of speed.
9 Joey Votto CIN 1B 150.86 Votto had a massive second half hitting 25 home runs with a 1.057 OPS and 165 wRC+.
10 C.J. Cron COL 1B 130.23 Provides you with a solid average and plenty of power. Playing in Coors will continue to help Cron making him a lock for power.
11 Josh Bell WAS 1B 132.14 Josh Bell, like Votto, had a big second half. He had a 136 wRC+, .229 ISO, and .379 wOBA.
12 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 145.73 Hoskins season was cut short due to an injury but he continues to show his power upside finishing the season with a 17.0 Barrel%.
13 Ty France SEA 1B, 2B 148.25 France took some impressive strides last season. His MaxEV and EV/FB both increased by several points. He also had a 147 wRC+ in the second half while also cutting his strikeout rate by three points.
14 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 125.41 His multi-eligibility makes him an attractive option for your UT, CI, or MI position. While he doesn’t provide a ton of counting stats in one specific category he does help contribute in all five of them.
15 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 125.14 Walsh is another cheap power option for first base, there are so many late-round options it’s no wonder everyone is suggesting you wait on the position in drafts.
16 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 180.91 Rizzo is the boring old guy who provides you with a solid base floor.
17 Tyler Stephenson CIN C, 1B 156.02 Stephenson shouldn’t be drafted at this position but the first base option does help in draft and hold leagues.
18 Brandon Belt SF 1B 220.82 Belt has a ton of power and now that they changed the park it is finally starting to come through. Health is the issue with Belt but having him as your CI or UT makes the risk worth the reward.
19 Trey Mancini BAL 1B 193.32 The fall off on the power towards the second half of the season seemed like fatigue to me. I think we see some more power but moving back the fence isn’t going to help.
20 Jonathan Schoop DET 1B, 2B 205.86 Schoop provides plenty of value since he is an accumulater who will see plenty of plate apperances on a Detroit Tigers team.
21 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B 173.05 Still a big injury mystery and without an update, we have to leave him here.
22 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 205.8 Another boring old guy that helped out a ton of teams last season. If you need average he is your guy.
23 Frank Schwindel CHC 1B 229.93 Schwindel impressed big time last season but with it being a small sample it’s hard to tell who he really is. Should get a ton of playing time though.
24 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 263.66 There is a ton of power here, it’s just a matter of Sano improving his contact skills. I think he can hit .230 next season which makes him a viable option for fantasy teams.
25 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 279.84 Aguilar has some serious power and he attributed 93 RBI’s in 510 PAs. He is kind of being overlooked this season.
26 Rowdy Tellez MLW 1B 299.18 Tellez should see a lot more playing time this year and he could easily end up with over 20 home runs and a .250 average.
27 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 307.32 The Giants love to platoon making Wade a tough buy. He should give you 15 home runs and at least five steals, the upside makes him appealing.
28 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B, OF 186.05 Projections like Kiriloff and if he can put up 18 home runs, four steals, and a 2.70 average like they are calling for, that makes him a really solid bench piece.
29 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 226.45 Dalbec’s poor plate discipline and high strikeout rate could continue to hold him back.
30 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 1B 229.82 Yes, he stole a ton of bases but it all came in a short stretch and is an extreme outlier compared to the rest of his career and minor league track record.
31 Luke Voit NYY 1B 269.91 The injuries continue to pile up making him a very risky pick.
32 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 259.3 The biggest named prospect coming into this season (who has yet to see MLB pitching). He will likely be called up early but we don’t know what kind of early struggles he can see.
33 Yoshi Tsutsugo PIT 1B, OF 308.59 Yoshi should see a lot of PA’s in Pittsburgh and maybe we start to see some of his power in 2022.
34 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 325.27 Hosmer’s low launch angle continues to hinder him and unless you are in a draft and hold he really isn’t rosterable.
35 Yandy Diaz TB 1B, 3B 346.73 Diaz will continue to do what he does, hit the ball hard without giving you home runs.
36 Keston Hiura MLW 1B 407.89 Hiura has had fantasy baseball managers moaning in agony for years now. He apparently is working on limiting his leg kick, so there is that at least.
37 Carlos Santana KC 1B 421.14 Carlos Santana had a miserable 2021 campaign. He does get a ton of PA’s and walks though making him a cheap option that could potentially help you.
38 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 456.07 Miggy will continue to see at-bats and should provide a little power with a decent average.
39 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B, OF 357.14 A boring player who won’t give you anything but plate apperances.
40 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 369.45 The Giants like to platoon him but he should still see a bunch of plate apperances.
41 Darin Ruf 러프 SF 1B, OF 423.39 Ruf is one of the best platoon bats in the bigs. A terrific matchup play in daily leagues.
42 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 388.36 Walker was once a hot commodity for fantasy baseball but he has proven that the bouncy ball in 2019 padded his stats.
43 Bobby Bradley CLE 1B 412.75 Think Joey Gallo but a lot less power.
44 Jurickson Profar SD 1B, OF 455.91 As of right now, Profar will be a starter for the Padres but they will likely add a bat or two after the lockout.
45 Juan Yepez STL 1B 465.48 Yepez could certainly get the call this season it’s just a matter of when. He provides good power and could help you late in the season.

Chad Young’s Ottoneu SP Ranks

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February 14, 2022
The good news is, I am making sure that all of my rankings are up in time for cut deadline day! The bad news is that, in order to meet this deadline, I had to sacrifice my notes column for the pitcher rankings. If it helps, you can imagine that I wrote something witty, insightful or in rare cases both, as you look at each row below.

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Chad Young’s Ottoneu RP Ranks

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February 14, 2022

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Chad Young’s Ottoneu OF Rankings

by
February 11, 2022

Outfield is a lot deeper than I expected when I started building this list. Especially when you factor in all the platoon bats. However, I think filling up 810 games across the five OF positions will be more challenging than people think. A lot of players on this list are good for 100 games or less, even before accounting for injuries, underperformance, etc.

 

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The Fragility of Projected Prices

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February 11, 2022

Over the past few weeks, I have been posting Ottoneu positional rankings, with dollar tiers instead of specific values. I took this approach last year, as well. It represents an evolution from where I was a few years back, when I regularly posted dollar values.

I have a growing discomfort with the idea that I can or should try to predict a player’s precise value. I don’t believe I was ever naive enough to think a value I put on a player was exact and not subject to error. I did, however, think the error bars could be managed – a $10 player might not be exactly $10 but he’s probably not $6 or $7 and he’s probably not $13 or $14. Over time, I have come to believe those ranges are wider. How much wider? Well, a lot.

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Michael Simione’s Catcher Rankings

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February 8, 2022
Michael Simione’s Catcher Rankings
Rank Player Team Position ADP Notes
1 Salvador Perez KC C 41.08 PA’s are king and Salvador Perez can bring plenty of those.
2 Will Smith LAD C 66.44 High floor and has the possibility to become the number one catcher.
3 J.T. Realmuto PHI C 52.86 Bit of a down year from injury, the stolen bases make him a valuable asset.
4 Willson Contreras CHC C 123.44 Sacrificing average for power. Brings some speed. Realmuto without the average.
5 Yasmani Grandal CWS C 109.28 The second half surgence shows the ceiling of Grandal and it’s really high.
6 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 96.69 The Varsho love has catapulted him into being drafted as the catcher number four. For me, I need a larger sample of production.
7 Tyler Stephenson CIN C, 1B 155.08 Fantastic at making contact and should put plenty of balls into play. Should see plenty of PA’s in Cincy.
8 Keibert Ruiz WAS C 157.42 Will be the featured catcher in Washington. Should be above average in BA with some pop.
9 Mitch Garver MIN C 202.75 Injuries have held him back and PA is slightly a concern. His 131 wRC+ in 243 PA’s last season is impressive.
10 Christian Vazquez BOS C 229.42 Can get you some steals with a decent average but has virtually no power. The season long 77 wRC+ is just horrible.
11 Alejandro Kirk TOR C 238.92 A ton of potential w/ great plate discipline but PA’s are a big concern.
12 Sean Murphy OAK C 242.69 Seems to be more power to unlock here and while the batting average is low he did have a decent in-zone contact rate.
13 Adley Rutschman BAL C 192.69 I know everyone loves him but I just can’t buy in until we know he is 100% starting up in the bigs.
14 Travis d’Arnaud ATL C 226.61 Has solid contact skills and a solid EV/FB but he just cannot stay on the field.
15 Elias Diaz COL C 256.25 Plays in Coors and shows power potential with a high Max EV and decent Barrel%.
16 Gary Sanchez NYY C 271.92 Insane power but it comes with a lowly average at least he should see a good amount of playing time.
17 Mike Zunino TB C 276.25 Insane power but it comes with a lowly average and not a lot of playing time.
18 Max Stassi LAA C 300.14 The high strikeout rate is worrisome but the high Barrel% shows we can see 16-18 home runs.
19 Omar Narvaez MLW C 276.36 Just solid all around and will do a little bit of everything for you.
20 Carson Kelly ARZ C 290.89 Varsho will be used in the field and maybe even DH leaving playing time for Kelly who had a solid EV/FB last season.
21 Yadier Molina STL C 294.92 Molina’s best years are behind him but he still makes solid contact and will chip in some steals.
22 Jacob Stallings MIA C 345.47 Stallings is good at what he does – making contact.
23 Danny Jansen TOR C 303.36 Jansen had a 1.165 OPS and 204 wRC+ in the second half. Small sample but still.
24 Eric Haase DET C, OF 322.78 Haase could play in the OF at times giving him plenty of playing opportunities. As long as he performs as good as last season he is a great option.
25 Joey Bart SF C 308.17 With Posey retiring Bart should get the starting gig.
26 James McCann NYM C 319.11 McCann will be the starter and will put up just mediocre numbers as always.
27 Austin Nola SD C 331.61 Decent power, decent average, but he just cannot stay healthy.
28 Yan Gomes CHC C 355.19 If Willson Contreras is traded his stock should rise as he provides a decent average with decent power.
29 Luis Torrens SEA C 378.61 A catcher with decent playing time and some pop at this point in the draft makes him a good late-round target.
30 Jorge Alfaro SD C, OF 392.53 A good option if you are in need of some speed.
31 Tucker Barnhart DET C 372.22 Will see playing time but won’t provide much.
32 Jonah Heim TEX C 416.25 A bit of a sleeper as he could provide you with double-digit home runs.
33 MJ Melendez KC C 383.14 After ripping up the minors a lot of people are hoping he gets the call.
34 Francisco Mejia TB C 396.36 Will split time with Zunino.
35 Ryan Jeffers MIN C 445.08 Bit of a disappointment last season. Should see some PA’s but he is mainly a good backup to have if you took Garver.
36 Manny Pina ATL C 528.81 Decent underlying numbers w/ a .250 ISO and 10.5 Barrel%. Could see playing time with the injury prone d’Arnaud ahead of him.
37 Tom Murphy SEA C 485.97 It starts getting really ugly here but Murphy can give you some pop.
38 Cal Raleigh SEA C 544.17 He impressed in AAA and if he does so again he could get another shot.
39 Pedro Severino MLW C 469.53 Maybe going to a new team can help Severino?
40 Roberto Perez PIT C 509.78 Known more for his defense than offense.
41 Martin Maldonado HOU C 535.78 Plate apperances but not much more than that here.
42 Victor Caratini SD C 553.5 Not much to discuss here.
43 Jose Trevino TEX C 554.75 Not much to discuss here.
44 Luis Campusano SD C 557.03 Not much to discuss here.
45 Austin Hedges CLE C 573.89 Not much to discuss here.
46 Dom Nunez COL C 585.83 Not much to discuss here.
47 Kyle Higashioka NYY C 585.94 Not much to discuss here.
48 Kevin Plawecki BOS C 587.97 Not much to discuss here.
49 Curt Casali SF C 617.39 Not much to discuss here.
50 Gabriel Moreno TOR C 457.31 Not much to discuss here.

Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 3B Rankings

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February 7, 2022

Hello, there, I’m Dante and I’ll be your guide through this third base of fantasy value. If you missed out on first base and want to read why I’m including my projections with these rankings, please turn to page 182. But to continue your adventure down this path, just keep straight ahead.

Without further ado, here are my top-29 3B for 2022. Why just 29? Because that’s how many third basemen qualify in my values, you silly goose. Read the rest of this entry »


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