Javier Baez has been getting quite a bit of acclaim since returning to the Cubs with his reduced strikeout rate. In 2014, Baez had a 42% strikeout rate (K%) in the majors and 2015 value of 22% K% looks to be a huge improvement. Don’t get too excited about this small sample of data as his swing strike rate (SwStr%) points to a strikeout rate which will likely increase quickly.

Historically, a hitter’s strikeout rate correlates almost identically to their swinging strike rate. The reason to use SwStr% instead of K%  is because it stabilizes a bit faster. I took all hitters since 2002 who had at least 200 plate appearances in a season and found the linear correlation between their strikeout rate and swinging strike rate. The R-squared between the two values was .947 with the equation working out to:

K% = 2.25 * SwStr%

With this little bit of information, here is a look at Baez’s stats in the majors the past two seasons.

Season: SwStr%, Predicted K%, Actual K%
2014: 19.2%, 43.2%, 41.5%
2015: 18.5%, 41.6%, 22.2%

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Reviews:
Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves

The Graduate: Blake Swihart, C: A swath of injuries to the big league club’s catching depth led to the earlier-than-expected arrival of Swihart in The Show. He looked overwhelmed in the early going but, after missing some time due to injury, the young catcher found his footing and showed why scouts were so high on him. He’s been a stabilizing force behind the plate as he’s become more confident and improved his game calling. He’s also been much better at the plate with improved patience and more contact. The next thing the switch-hitting catcher needs to do is to get stronger from the right side of the plate. Look for Swihart, 23, to be behind the dish for Boston for years to come.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Reviews:
Baltimore Orioles

The Graduate: Mike Foltynewicz, RHP: Acquired from the Astros in the Evan Gattis deal, Foltynewicz has a chance to be a real steal for the Braves. The right-hander was probably in the Majors before he was ready and he struggled mightily with his command. However, his overpowering fastball gives him a chance to survive even without his best stuff — most specifically command and control. He has a strong frame that should allow him to provide 200+ innings and could be an excellent No. 3 starter for Atlanta. Some see him as the future closer for the Braves but I remain hopeful that he’ll stick in the starting rotation once he solves his command issues and keeps the ball in the park more consistently.

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We’re on the cusp of September call-ups when rosters expand to 40 guys and a bevy of relative unknowns flood the league. Given the influx of players, it’s hard for even the most alluring of these call-ups to be guaranteed a substantial amount of playing time, but a fast start can help get their name penciled in more regularly as we hit the homestretch of the 2015 season (by the way, how are we almost in September?). It’s been a banner year for rookies coming up and making an impact which actually makes call-up season a little tougher in terms of identifying guys who could really help.

Everyone is still hoping to see Corey Seager, but the playing time issues that have been present in LA all year haven’t exactly cleared up with the emergence of Enrique Hernandez and the addition of Chase Utley into the mix. Plus, at this point Seager is stashed so he’s likely not even be available to you even if we thought he had a bead on significant time. Instead of perusing the top prospect lists, I went through the leaderboards of the upper minor leagues (Triple- and Double-A) looking for guys who could be primed to give us that boost in the standings in the season’s final month.

Some of these guys are in fact top prospects themselves, but others are off-the-radar prospects or journeyman-types who we might not expect a lot from generally speaking, but the opportunity could be there for them to parlay their big minor league season into some major league success. I’m looking specifically for power and speed assets here with the former coming today and the latter coming later this week.

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It’s hard to believe the minor league regular season is less than two weeks away from winding down. The playoffs will be here before you know it, which means reviews of the 2015 season are just around the corner!

Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates: With Jameson Taillon on the sideline now for two full years (Tommy John surgery, hernia operation), Glasnow is the undisputed top pitching prospect in the system. Just 22, he opened the year in Double-A but has made his last five starts at the Triple-A level where his ERA sits below 1.00 and his strikeout rate is above 26%. Kiley rates Glasnow’s fastball as a present 65 grade (on the 20-80 scale) with a future grade of 70, while his curveball has 60 potential. With a changeup that also grades as better-than-average, this Pirates prospect has a big-time ceiling and might fit in nicely behind ace Gerrit Cole. He should be ready for The Show by mid-2016 at the latest and he should help shore up a rotation that isn’t overly deep especially with the potential loss of the perennially-retiring A.J. Burnett. [Value Up]

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Byron Buxton is back and that’s fantastic. Sure he struggled in his first major-league stint, a measly 11-game sample beset by strikeouts and not much else, but judging him based on such a small spell is not a good idea. He should be added right away in all formats. It seems like unnecessary advice until you consider he’s owned in 32 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 25 percent of ESPN leagues.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch, we’re looking at some players that could enter The Show in 2016 or 2017 and develop into impact performers.

Matt Chapman, 3B, Athletics: Oakland has focused on drafting college hitters in the upper rounds of the draft in recent years and Chapman was the club’s first pick in 2014. In just his first full pro season, the third baseman has shown outstanding pop in the potent California League with a .587 OPS in 77 games (helped by 23 home runs); considering home run potential was a question mark for him entering pro ball this season has to be very encouraging for the A’s. With offseason trade acquisition Brett Lawrie producing modest results at the hot corner (and even spending some time at second base recently), the club may be eager to help erase memories of the Josh Donaldson trade — and Chapman could very well help do that. He might need another full season in the minors but this slugger — and above-average hitter — could make a real impact in Oakland once he’s ready for The Show. [Value Up]

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Seeing as my usual Monday beat is second base, I decided to write a piece on minor-league second sackers who could make a fantasy impact down the stretch. As it turns out, that was an entirely fruitless endeavor. There just aren’t any players at the position that I’m excited about for the remainder of 2015, who aren’t already at least on the major-league club.

However, during my 90 minutes or so of dead-end research, I noticed Danny Worth’s shockingly productive stat line. In case you forgot, Worth is that guy the Tigers would always call up for some reason in each of the last five seasons, despite the fact that he owns a career .230/.293/.295 slash in 292 major-league plate appearances.

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As this year’s MLB draft picks have signed their contracts and entered the ottoneu player universe, owners have been auctioning them off like crazy. Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, and Brendan Rodgers in particular, have been flying off the shelves, and often at rather high prices.

Those three are all owned in more than a quarter of leagues with prices ranging as high as $15. So far, I have placed only one bid across all my leagues – $5 on Swanson in the original ottoneu league – mostly because I am not sure these players are worth the risk. But everyone else seems to think they are. So am I missing something? Or are you?

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A month before the season started, I introduced a model that predicts a Minor League hitter’s chances of Major League success based on his statistics during his most recent AAA stint. I will use that same model now to update the list of the National League’s top MLB-ready outfield prospects, the key term here being MLB-ready, not prospect — the goal is to identify players who scouts may not love but stats do.

The model looks at how a hitter once performed in AAA and compares it to his known career outcome, ultimately calculating probabilities that a certain career outcome will occur. These probabilities can then be applied to current Minor League players in order to project their currently unknown career outcomes. I discuss the model’s nitty-gritty, as well as its similarities with and potential shortcomings to Chris Mitchell’s KATOH, in the link provided in this post’s first sentence. Both models share the same goal and their methodologies are almost identical, so their results can be considered comparable; mine simply takes a more subjective approach, as I will explain shortly. This is not a turf war.

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