Valuing the Young Guys: Buxton, Seager, Gallo and More

Byron Buxton is back and that’s fantastic. Sure he struggled in his first major-league stint, a measly 11-game sample beset by strikeouts and not much else, but judging him based on such a small spell is not a good idea. He should be added right away in all formats. It seems like unnecessary advice until you consider he’s owned in 32 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 25 percent of ESPN leagues.

ZiPS is less than enthused about Buxton’s potential this year, projecting he’ll steal four bases and hit .246. Steamer projects six steals and a .244 average. Those projections aren’t why you’re adding him. You’re adding him for his potential to do much bigger things. He has seven homers and 22 steals in 72 minor-league games this season, meaning his impact in steals alone could rival anyone in baseball with Billy Hamilton on the disabled list. While his power is still developing he may chip in some help there too.

His batting average could be a different story. He’s missed plenty of development time in the minor leagues due to injuries. That could be why the double-digit walk rate he displayed through 2013 never popped up again in higher levels (or it could just be that higher levels are more difficult). Also, while he was good, he wasn’t dominating in the minors, so the projections aren’t off-base guessing he may struggle to hit for much of an average this season. I’m on the optimistic side, looking for an average around .250 with 10 steals, 20 runs and a few of home runs. Oh and of course, the potential for much more exciting things.

Buxton’s up and an obvious grab. Here’s a primer on the most interesting hitting prospects who may be up soon.

Corey Seager (SS) – Prospectors have been predicting Seager’s call-up since April when Jimmy Rollins got off to a slow start. Rollins delayed those plans by turning back into an above average hitter in July and August. The Dodgers’ infield depth also hurts things, though Alberto Callaspo was recently DFA’d, leaving the team without a clear-cut backup option at third base where Justin Turner gets fairly frequent days off. Alex Guerrero has received some playing time there and Chase Utley could theoretically work there as well, but Seager (who’s been playing third base at Triple-A recently) seems like the best option.

Seager brings plus power and his reduced strikeouts should limit the floor on his batting average, assuming he can continue the trend in the majors. Aside from a backup’s worth of at-bats at third base, Seager could also spell Rollins at shortstop. There’s also a chance Utley totally flops or gets hurt, Turner moves to second, and Seager starts at third.

Hector Olivera (3B/1B) – Olivera faces no such struggles to find playing time and should start for the Braves as early as next week. As for what he’s capable of, Kiley McDaniel said Olivera “could be an All-Star but comes with some age/injury risks.” Those sound like the types of risks fantasy owners should be jumping on in late August. Grab Olivera now if you need some power/average/counting stats help at the corners. Because the players below provide stats in more specific categories, Olivera is the last player on the list I’d recommend adding as soon as he’s called up.

Joey Gallo (3B/OF) – Even if Gallo doesn’t start consistently in September, he’s an excellent spot starter for fantasy teams because he’ll provide power like no one else you can add right now. ZiPS projects six home runs in 104 plate appearances and he’s the only player projected to hit more than five home runs with fewer than 120 plate appearances. Yes, the average will sting. He has the highest swinging strike rate and lowest contact rate on pitches in the zone in baseball this season. The stories about his strikeouts were all true. So were the ones about his power. He hit five home runs in his 14 games in the majors in June, showing what kind of impact he can provide in a short period.

Jose Peraza (SS – Yahoo!/2B – ESPN) – While he plays a different position, a lot of the comments about the Dodgers’ infield from the Seager section fit here too. Basically, it’s crowded. If Peraza can find a spot, he brings interesting speed to the middle infield.

Dalton Pompey (OF) – Pompey flopped in his brief time with the Blue Jays this season and now playing time might be an issue when he comes back up. In the big picture, he should develop some power. For this season he’s probably only a speed play. Like Gallo, he’s worth adding once he’s up if you have the roster space to plug in a player who’s not starting full time and his mostly one-category production is what you need.

Aaron Judge (OF) – With the Yankees’ currently full and healthy outfield, plus Judge’s slow start at Triple-A, a call-up doesn’t appear imminent. If things change and the Yankees decide to take a look at Judge in September, he’s an interesting addition for fantasy teams. This season, he’s like a watered down Gallo in that he won’t strike out quite as much or hit for as much power.