Scanning Minor League Leaderboards for Potential September Impact

We’re on the cusp of September call-ups when rosters expand to 40 guys and a bevy of relative unknowns flood the league. Given the influx of players, it’s hard for even the most alluring of these call-ups to be guaranteed a substantial amount of playing time, but a fast start can help get their name penciled in more regularly as we hit the homestretch of the 2015 season (by the way, how are we almost in September?). It’s been a banner year for rookies coming up and making an impact which actually makes call-up season a little tougher in terms of identifying guys who could really help.

Everyone is still hoping to see Corey Seager, but the playing time issues that have been present in LA all year haven’t exactly cleared up with the emergence of Enrique Hernandez and the addition of Chase Utley into the mix. Plus, at this point Seager is stashed so he’s likely not even be available to you even if we thought he had a bead on significant time. Instead of perusing the top prospect lists, I went through the leaderboards of the upper minor leagues (Triple- and Double-A) looking for guys who could be primed to give us that boost in the standings in the season’s final month.

Some of these guys are in fact top prospects themselves, but others are off-the-radar prospects or journeyman-types who we might not expect a lot from generally speaking, but the opportunity could be there for them to parlay their big minor league season into some major league success. I’m looking specifically for power and speed assets here with the former coming today and the latter coming later this week.

POTENTIAL POWER ASSETS

Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) – 30 HRs in Triple-A split between PCL (Sacramento) & IL (Louisville)

Duvall was moved to Cincy in the Mike Leake deal. He’s always had power with a .504 SLG in 2674 minor league PA with this being his second 30-HR season and he was just three short of that mark last year in 394 PA (.599). The best of his work has come in aggressively favorable hitting environments – the Cal and Pacific Coast Leagues – but the ISO has been there in every season but his first when he managed just a .125 in 217 PA at Low-A. Since then he hasn’t fallen below .229 save these recent 88 PA with Cincy’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville (.187).

Why Pick Him Up? – The 26-year old Duvall finds himself in a prime spot for some playing time after the trade to Cincinnati. They recently traded Marlon Byrd, leaving Jay Bruce as the only guaranteed outfielder in the lineup every day. The likes of Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jason Bourgeois, Skip Schumaker, and Brennan Boesch are currently filling in the leftfielder spot for the Reds, a spot that has generated the second-worst wRC+ in the league at 65.

Steven Moya (OF, DET) – 18 HRs in Triple-A Toledo and 3 HRs in a small High-A Lakeland sample to open the year

Moya’s size screams power: 6’7, 260. But he carries the same downside usually associated with these power threats who aren’t quite elite-level prospects: he has a ton of swing-and-miss in his game. Unlike a lot of power threats, Moya isn’t able to cancel out some of the swing-and-miss with a more patient approach. He has just a 5% BB rate against a 30% K rate in 2450 minor league PA and he’s been at those exact same figures in 477 PA at Triple-A this year.

All of these prospects obviously have a wart or three which is why they aren’t sitting in the top 20 of MLB prospect lists or being seen as the next big thing for their organizations, but Moya might be the best overall prospect among this group. Moya made Kiley’s top 200 in the back 58 and MLB.com slotted him 100th on their spring list this year so there are some expectations for the 23-year old.

Why Pick Him Up? – The trade of Yoenis Cespedes has left a hole in LF and Tyler Collins hasn’t exactly grabbed hold of the spot with a .689 OPS in 115 PA. Moya didn’t get the first shot given his youth and the fact that he hasn’t been ripping up Triple-A (.697 OPS), but the power has still been there, especially against righties with a .198 ISO. He should be one of the first call-ups for Detroit in September and he should get a shot at being the strong side platoon in left with Collins. With that time, he could pop five-six homers in September.

Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) – 13 HRs in Double-A Pensacola

OK, I lied. Winker is actually the best pure prospect on this list. In fact, he’s a better overall prospect than he is a power threat, but I wanted him on this list because even though he’s only reached Double-A, things actually set up nicely for him to get some playing time if they call him up. Kiley had him 39th, MLB said 26th, BP said 44th, and BA said 47th. Winker was expected to at least make Triple-A at some point this year, but he sputtered a bit through April and May with just a .656 OPS and two homers.

He’s been much better since then, especially in August as he has nearly doubled his home run total with 6 and an impressive 1.070 OPS. As I mentioned with Duvall, the playing time isn’t the question in Cincy. Unfortunately neither Duvall nor Winker plays center so these two specifically are vying for the one spot in left field.

Why Pick Him Up? – I mentioned that he’s picked it up of late with a huge August, but he’s actually been solid since that ugly May with a .300/.396/.492 line and 11 of his 13 HRs in 293 PA. The 2012 first-rounder is a top-level prospect who has a great approach (13% BB, 16% K this year) and could produce upon arrival. If home runs are your glaring need, he might not be the best speculative call-up for you, but he could definitely be more of a do-everything contributor for the season’s final month.

Adam Walker (OF, MIN) – 28 HRs in Double-A Chattanooga

Walker is a third-round college pick from 2012 who has been a severe power threat his entire way up the ladder with ISO figures of .246, .248, .190, and this year’s .260 in 505 PA. Kiley had him 13th in the Twins prospect rankings earlier this year (or rather late last year as they were one of his first teams written up) noting the raw power while noting that his arm could hang in right, but rest of his defense is likely left field-worthy at best. The biggest question from that profile was if he could make enough contact and the answer is still “no”. Walker has a 35% strikeout rate, his highest yet, and the accompanying .245 AVG is unsurprisingly his lowest yet.

Why Pick Him Up? – Whereas I’d speculate on Duvall, Moya, and Winker ahead of September 1st, Walker is a wait-and-see as a Double-A product without a clear route to playing time. But if he’s called up and handed some PA, you can get cheap power. It may come with a .230 AVG, but we’ve seen these severe swing-and-miss guys hold up for a little while and deliver before the strikeout rate catches up to them and in Walker’s case the season might just run out before that could happen. He’s a deep league speculation, but if you’re desperate for power, keep his name filed away.

A.J. Reed (1B, HOU) – 30 HRs split between High-A Lancaster (23) and Double-A Corpus Christi (7)

Reed was a second-rounder last year after an incredible two-way career at the University of Kentucky. Not only did he drop a 2.09 ERA in 112 innings for the Wildcats, but he added 13 bombs and an .897 OPS in 251 PA, too. He hasn’t pitched a pro, but when you have a .324/.416/.579 line including 42 HRs in 846 PA, there’s no real need to pitch.

Kiley mentioned that it is a fallback plan if hitting doesn’t work out, but so far, so good. Reed’s big explosion did happen in the Cal League which is very hitter-friendly, but that only inflated his 65-grade raw power whereas many others “find” their power in the Cal League only to lose it once they leave (shoutout to Gary Brown?).

Why Pick Him Up? – Reed’s .292 ISO in the Cal League is his best as a pro, but he hasn’t been below .210 at any of his four stops. Carter no longer has a firm lock on the first base playing time with a paltry 84 wRC+ in 400 PA this year. The Astros have shown plenty of willingness to promote guys from Double-A and they just might be ready to pass over Jon Singleton in Triple-A and cut into Carter’s playing time with Reed (who is a lefty and could at least be the strong side of a platoon).

By the way, Singleton is a legitimate candidate to give a power boost in September if he in fact does get the opportunity, but I highlighted Reed because he’s much lesser known plus we have some idea of what Singleton is already. Singleton is also a lefty and could hold the favorable end of the platoon with Carter, too, but he’s not much different than Carter with 14 HRs and a 36% K rate in his 415 MLB PA over the last two seasons. Reed hasn’t had the same kind of strikeout rates as a minor league at 20% in 846 PA, but he also has just 176 PA in the high minors and I’d expect at least a 25% rate as a major leaguer if the 22-year old is called up.