Archive for Prospects

Quick Looks: Kyle Hendricks, Luke Weaver, and Alex Reyes

Saturday’s Cardinals-Cubs game made for some good pitcher watching with three young pitchers taking the mound. Let me start with Hendricks.

A couple of years back, I did a Quick Look at Hendricks and here were my thoughts:

I just have not seen enough of him to convince me he can keep up the results. I would not be surprised one bit if his ERA from now to season’s end was near 4.00 (which is where his ERA estimators are hanging out).

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a rising pitcher from the National League and a couple of shortstops on different ends of the development spectrum.

Mitch Keller | RHP | Pirates
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Keller, 20, reminds me a little bit of Jameson Taillon — as a pitcher with some giddy-up on his fastball that has above-average control at an early stage of the development curve. The 2014 second-round pick is still working to polish his command but he could eventually possess three average or better offerings, including a fastball that currently touches the mid-90s. He’s not flashy but Keller has 112 strikeouts in 107.1 innings and does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park. He also has a strong frame that suggests he could develop into an innings-eater in the middle of the Pirates rotation. The club has some depth in the big league rotation so Keller can move at his own pace and won’t be rushed in this system.

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Cardinals Pitcher Call-Ups: Reyes and Weaver

The Cardinals called up Alex Reyes and he made his first major league appearance for the Cardinals bullpen last light. Reyes is a talent pitcher and here is some comparable pitchers with similar grades to his 2016 Baseball America prospect grade.

The list is dominated by hard throwers with good curve balls which describes Reyes.

Moving onto his Triple-A production this year, the 21-year-old has been a strikeout machine with 12.8 K/9, but he has some issues with walks (4.4 BB/9). Last night he averaged 99 mph with his fastball and was 98 mph in the Arizona Fall League last year. Besides the fastball, he has an above average curve ball. He is a talented pitcher and should be a top 20 pitcher for years to come if his change up is serviceable.

But to put it simply, all the talent doesn’t really matter this season. Reyes will not be useful in most leagues since he will be relegated to the bullpen and is currently not in line for Saves. In redraft leagues, let others fight over him. In keeper leagues, understand his value is limited this season. Now, if I was a non-contender in a keeper league, I would look to see if one of the contenders has Reyes and would try to pick him up for a piece which could help them win a championship.

Luke Weaver is the pitcher owners should be targeting this season instead of Reyes. To start with, here are some comparables for Weaver using MLB.com’s 2016 grades.

The list of pitchers doesn’t bring a ton of excitement to Weaver’s debut on Saturday. The key when looking at these grades is if he can get his curve or slider to be his third league-average pitch. Weaver has been extremely productive in Double-A posting a 1.40 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but a pitcher can dominate the minors with just two pitches. If viewing his start on Saturday, watch to see how his curve and slider work. If he can’t get them going, he may struggle the second or third time through the order.

As for fantasy, I think he is worth a stash in all leagues to see how he performs. I think he could be in the Cardinals’ rotation until the season end because he has only thrown 83 innings this year after throwing 124 IP last year so workload may not be an issue.

Dylan Bundy: Quick Look

I have been intrigued on how Dylan Bundy looks since moving to the Orioles rotation in mid-July. With his injuries and starting the season in the bullpen, I wanted to get an idea of what to expect from him as a starter. For the game, I picked his last start on August 7. Here are my thoughts:

• His fastball was at 92-97 mph with sink at the lower velocities. He had good command of this pitch and seemed to constantly hit is spots with it. This will help him get ahead of hitters who are looking for a pitch in the middle of the plate. His fastball seems to have a couple different movements and I would not be surprised if he has a four-seam fastball and a slower two-seamer.
• His split-change was at 85-87 mph also with plus late sink. This pitch was the best pitch he threw.
• His final pitch is a classic 12-6 curve at 77-80 mph which he used as a chase pitch for called strikes.
• As with any pitcher, when he hung the curve or change, they got crushed.
• If he throws like he did during this game next year, he is going to be a strikeout machine.

For next season, I like the possible production from him and he could be a top-20 to 40 pitcher …. if he stays healthy which is a huge if. I think he will be more valuable in shallow leagues where the replacement level is higher. In deeper leagues, he may end up a wasted pick if he goes back on the DL again for the season. Right now I would put a 140 IP, 9 K/9, and a 3.50 ERA on him for a 2017 projection.

T.J. House: Back in the majors

Going into last season, I had a huge crush on T.J. House after he put up some great numbers at the end of 2014. I bragged him up over the offseason and picked him up where ever I could. Right out of the gate of the 2015 season, House stunk it up and ended up the DL with an injury.

The biggest key I took away from my House love affair, for non-prospect who break out, any kink in their armor will probably make them unplayable. In House’s case, his velocity lost 2 mph from the previous season. There was no way he could keep up his 2014 production with a batting-practice fastball.

His return to the majors is only to the Indians bullpen and his fastball, which he should throw harder from the bullpen, only sits at 90 mph. He is unplayable in all leagues right now, but I will always remember the bond we shared that one offseason.

Introduction

I plan for this new series, Mixing Fantasy and Reality, to examine in detail how real happenings in baseball affect fantasy valuations. I had several projects I have worked on like xBABIP values and velocity differences in which I plan on including. The MASH Report took up quite a bit of my time compiling and tracking all the injuries and I didn’t have time for other outlets. Today marks a new beginning where I have an opportunity to make additional information available. This series will run on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday

I am not going to completely ignore injuries. If a major injury happens or I think one will happen, I will include the information. Additionally, every Thursday I will write a detailed article exclusively on a few in-depth injury topics like my HURT and PAIN reports.

As for future articles, the format will likely be two to four main areas of discussion and maybe some interesting tidbit not found elsewhere. I am not sure if I will have a set topic rotation or if I will just follow the news. For a few articles, I will need to set some ground work to reference in future articles, so don’t expect all the articles to be full of background information like the first few. I hope you enjoy the change and let me know if you have any suggestions.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at two pitchers with very different approaches (and profiles) on the mound and a former top prospect that fell from grace only to suddenly become relevant again.

Jack Flaherty | RHP | Cardinals
ETA: 2018
Value: Steady

The Cardinals organization tends to make noise with hard-throwing pitchers like Alex Reyes, Junior Fernandez and Sandy Alcantara so Flaherty often gets overlooked. The right-hander, though, has a chance to have four average or better offerings and, perhaps, three plus offerings when all is said and done. Right now, the 34th overall pick of the 2014 draft has average velocity on his heater but his 6-4, 2015 pound frame suggests there could be more miles to come. His changeup already flashes plus and the slider is on its way. His control is respectable but I’d like to see him command the ball down in the zone more to generate a higher rate of ground-ball outs. Flaherty, 20, has a solid chance to develop into a No. 4 starter but further improvements on his pitches could push him even higher.

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Let’s talk hard-throwing pitchers today at the Prospect Stock Watch since they’re all the rage in baseball right now.

Michael Kopech | RHP | Red Sox
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Selected 33rd overall in the 2014 draft out of high school, Kopech’s early pro career was marked with makeup concerns, a suspension for a banned substance, and injury (a broken hand suffered in a fight with a teammate). When he’s on the mound, though, the right-hander can be downright nasty. His fastball has reportedly hit 105 mph as a starter and it sits 95-98 mph. He also throws a low-90s slider and changeup but both need work to become more consistent. Kopech, 20, has been pitching well in high-A ball. In six starts he has 42 strikeouts in 28.1 innings and has yet to allow a home run. Boston has a very healthy minor league system but is a little light on upper-level impact arms so Kopech’s continued development (and improved maturity) is important.

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Earlier this season I introduced the Prospect Scorecard as a way of better comparing and identifying the best fit prospect value for your specific fantasy league.  Today I’ll get a head start on my own 2017 prospect rankings by using the Scorecard methodology to rank the current top 50 prospects for Ottoneu. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu specifically, the 4 x 4 and FGPTS prospect rankings can serve as a good proxy for most OPS or wOBA-centric fantasy leagues, and the traditional 5 x 5 prospect rankings should cover a large portion of the rest.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we review a prospect recovering his value after a spate of injuries, an almost-traded middle infielder and an underrated catcher.

Anthony Alford | OF | Blue Jays
ETA: 2017
Value: Recovering

Alford’s 2016 season has been a nightmare — but he might be finally turning things around. An ultra-athletic but raw athlete (due to his time spent splitting focus between pro ball and college football), the outfielder showed a lot of improvement in ’15 when he agreed to give up the gridiron. Alford played just one game this season before suffering a knee injury that knocked him out for almost a month. He returned only to suffer a concussion in a collision, which put him on the shelf for another couple of weeks. It took another few weeks for him to look good in the batter’s box upon his return but he then hit in 13 of 15 games between July 9-27 and was much more selective at the plate. The injuries have pushed Alford’s ETA back but he should still see time in Toronto in the latter half of 2017.

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Today’s prospect stock watch focuses on a name that’s been mentioned in trade talks, a prospect with a skill set that generates polarizing views, and a sleeper prospect that you’ve probably never heard of — but should get to know.

Tanner Scott | LHP | Orioles
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

Scott’s name has been bandied about throughout the July as the Orioles continue to look for ways to improve their club. And it’s understandable why clubs would be intrigued. The southpaw can hit triple-digits with his heater — a rare feat for a left-handed pitcher. However, the reliever — and 2014 6th round draft pick — faces a significant challenge to improve his control. He’s walked 47 batters in 50.2 innings this year between single-A and double-A. Relievers can often survive plus control but Scott will need to develop at least average control if he’s going to develop into a high-leverage reliever. As we’ve seen with players like the Yankees’ Andrew Miller, it can take quite some time for this to happen.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a Yankees sleeper prospect, a struggling top draft pick and a reliever stuck in triple-A who could probably be a set-up man for a big league club right now.

Luis Torrens | C | Yankees
ETA: 2019
Value: Slowly rising

If you want a deep sleeper to invest in, or just to keep an eye on, Torrens is your man. He’d very likely already be in high-A ball at the age of 20 if it weren’t for injury issues over the past two years. Back now and healthy after labrum surgery in 2015, the young catcher hit very well in 12 short-season games to earn a quick promotion to low-A ball. He shows a solid understanding of pitchers and a good eye at the plate, which has allowed him to post a 9-8 BB-K rate so far this year. He’s still learning to drive the ball consistently but he could have at least average power and a better-than-average hit tool for a catcher. If he can avoid the DL, look for Torrens (with the far superior defensive skills) — not Gary Sanchez — to be the Yankees’ catcher of the future.

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