On this holiday weekend, the Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at three players in varying degrees of breaking out for their respective organizations — including one young outfielder from Washington’s system that you don’t want to sleep on if you’re participating in a dynasty league.

Dawel Lugo | SS | Diamondbacks
Value: Inching Upward
ETA: 2018

It’s easy to dismiss Lugo’s solid start to the year given that he’s playing in a very good hitter’s league — and it might partially explain the increase in power — but he’s made some clear adjustments. The young shortstop’s walk rate is up a tad (to near 5% — good for him), the strikeout rate is down to just 13% and his batting average of .289 appears sustainable off of a .305 BABIP. That’s good because it remains to be seen how real the power increase is and Lugo doesn’t run so his offensive value will be very reliant on his batting average. He’ll likely move to third base down the road so consistent power will be important but he’s not going to push Jake Lamb off the hot corner and Brandon Drury is probably a better player too.

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Today we take a look at two outfielders who are following opposite tracks on the value scale for their respective organizations. We also revisit the Dodgers’ disgustingly deep pool of prospects with an under-sized right-hander under the microscope.

Brandon Nimmo | OF | Mets
ETA: Now
Value: Steady

Michael Conforto — the club’s first round pick from 2014 — has been demoted to the minors and replaced with another former first rounder. Nimmo (2011) was promoted to The Show over the weekend — and in his sixth pro season and after a solid showing in triple-A. The 23-year-old outfielder has produced a .409 on-base percentage and banged out 82 hits in 63 games. Getting on base is Nimmo’s game. He lacks consistent home-run pop and he doesn’t really run well despite having decent speed. As a result, he’s more of a future big league fourth (or platoon) outfielder than a true everyday guy — unless he suddenly pulls a Kevin Pillar and starts running through walls to catch fly balls.

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This week I wanted to take a look at the three top 1B prospects in AAA. I am not suggesting that these players will definitely get called up this season, but these are players I wanted to look at further either because of performance or because of opportunity. The player may not have a direct path right now, but could be moved creating that necessary path. The player may not be called up this season, but may provide value in those deep keeper leagues where minor leaguers hold value and could be an asset next season. Note that this article was written Thursday morning, so some of the stats may be off by a day.
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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re taking a look at three young hitters who are seeing their prospect values surge as we enter the second half of the minor league season (Where has the time gone?).

Ian Happ | OF/2B | Cubs
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

Predominantly an outfielder in college, the Cubs have moved Happ to second base in an attempt to get the most out of his value and help him fit on the Cubs. The jury remains out on the move, though, and his bat — much like Kyle Schwarber and the C vs OF debate — is more developed than the defensive skills. In fact, the young second baseman received a promotion to double-A just two days ago after hitting .296/.410/.475 in 69 high-A games. Happ, 21, can do a little bit of everything as a switch-hitter with speed, patience, pop and a solid eye at the plate. He reminds me of a young — less versatile — Ben Zobrist.

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We’ve spent much of the stock watches over the past few weeks looking at players on the upswing. Today, we’ll look at a player on the downswing, as well as a couple of prospects that might be getting overvalued in your fantasy leagues.

Orlando Arcia | SS | Brewers
Value: Steady
ETA: 2017

When the season began, it seemed to be a forgone conclusion that Arcia would be playing shortstop for the rebuilding Brewers by mid season but then placeholder Jonathan Villar went and started to realize his potential. As a result, that likely pushes Arcia’s debut back to either late 2016 or 2017. The Brewers could eventually rotate both Villar and Arcia through second base and shortstop, along with Scooter Gennett also seeing time at second base, unless a trade eventually frees up some playing time. Arcia is a much better real-life baseball player than fantasy contributor due to his best tool being his defence — followed by his hit tool and then his base-running abilities.

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With the 2016 amateur draft now in the rearview mirror and a new wave of talented headed for the minor league later this month as the short-season leagues get going, let’s take a look at some of the talented holdovers from previous drafts.

Austin Meadows | OF | Pirates
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

The Pittsburgh Pirates currently have one of the best four-man outfields in the Majors and they’ll soon have to make room for Meadows. The young outfielder’s season got off to a slow start thanks to an injury but he’s looked sharp in his 41 games. He’s really doing a little bit of everything – at the plate (.962 OPS), in the field (handling center field) and on the base paths (8-for-11 in steals, 8 triples). Meadows, 21, doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster (and protected from the Rule 5 draft) until after the 2017 season so, while he’s likely to be promoted to triple-A during the summer, he’s likely not going to see The Show until next year – unless an unexpected and prolonged injury occurs to one of the veterans.

Francisco Mejia | C | Indians
ETA: 2019 (If he stays behind the plate) | 2018 (If he changes positions)
Value: Increasing

It’s been an ugly year for Indians backstops. First-stringer Yan Gomes is off to a terrible start at the plate (.561 OPS) and back-up Chris Gimenez has been equally bad (.553 OPS). The club also lost talented defensive whiz Roberto Perez to a potentially-season-ending injury after he appeared in just four games in 2016. Mejia himself is coming off of a disappointing first full season in the minors from 2015. Still, he’s just 20 and is enjoying himself the second time through the Midwest League. He’s hitting .338 through 50 games and has done a nice job of keeping his strikeouts under control at 15.5%. Mejia is also showing some gap pop and signs that he could eventually produce more over-the-fence pop. He has the necessary skills to remain behind the plate but there are questions over his desire to excel at the position.

Spencer Kieboom | C | Nationals
ETA: 2017
Value: Steady (but underrated)

Kieboom doesn’t possess the same upside that the two players above him do but solid all-around catchers are hard to find. The Nationals’ No. 1 catcher Wilson Ramos is enjoying a breakout season but he is also being buoyed by a .350 BABIP (high for a slow-footed catcher). Kieboom – whose brother Carter was the club’s first round draft pick in 2016 – isn’t flashy but he has a solid defensive reputation that should earn him playing time, he gets on base at a solid clip and he can also step into the odd extra base hit. He’s also a smart player with good instincts so he should only get better. Considering the lack of impact depth at the position in the organization, he should eventually pair nicely with Ramos or eventually replace him.

With the 2016 amateur draft zooming up quickly — at the beginning of next week — we’ve been looking at the current values of some of the top 2015 draft picks. Today, we’ll look at the first three college arms selected from last year.

Dillon Tate | RHP | Rangers
ETA: late 2017
Value: Steady

Despite being brought along cautiously with an assignment to low-A ball in ’16, Tate has struggled. The first college arm selected in last year’s draft has a 7.23 ERA through his first seven appearances of the year. He’s struggled with his command, which has led to 32 hits in 23.2 innings. His control has been OK, though, and he has just eight walks. His 28 strikeouts also suggest that he’s bound to break out of the funk. The Rangers system has all kinds of offensive talent throughout but the pitching ranks are fairly thin so the club is no doubt eager to see Tate get his feet under him sooner rather than later. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter if he develops properly.

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I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch.  In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).

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We continue to count down to the 2016 amateur draft in early June by focusing on 2015 draft picks. Today, we’re looking at three of the top catchers selected last year. And it’s not really that pretty…

Austin Allen | Padres | C
ETA: 2018
Value: Rising

The other two catchers on this list were selected in the first round of the 2015 draft. Allen, though, lasted until the fourth round due to concerns over his ability to stick behind the plate. Those concerns are still there but there are fewer and fewer surrounding his bat. With that said, he’s come back down to earth a bit with the bat after an unreal start to the year in April. He’s hitting just .238 in May but his triple-slash line is still .349/.428/.460 in 36 games. Despite the recent downturn, the BB-K rate of 15-21 is solid and quality left-handed hitting catchers are always in demand. The Padres have some catching depth in the upper minors and at the big league level so Allen will have some time to polish his skills.

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We’re back with another edition of the Prospect Stock Watch. Today — in honor of the upcoming 2016 amateur draft — we’re catching up with three highly-coveted shortstops from the 2015 draft.

Dansby Swanson | Braves | SS
ETA: late 2016
Value: Rising steadily

Arizona nabbed Swanson with the first overall pick in the 2015 draft but flipped him later that winter to Atlanta in the ill-fated Shelby Miller deal (Or is it too early to judge the deal this harshly?). The change in address hasn’t hindered the young shortstop at all. After opening 2016 in high-A ball, he recently moved up to double-A and he’s producing a triple-slash of .299/.382/.474 in 24 games. Swanson, 22, likely won’t be a power-hitter but he has the pop in his bat to hit 30-40 doubles and eight to 10 homers, with enough speed to add another base or two to 20-30 hits via the steal. Veteran shortstop Erick Aybar is having a down-right-terrible season at the big league level so don’t be shocked to see Swanson in some big league action before the year is out. Another talented shortstop, Ozzie Albies, is also in the system and playing at triple-A but he’s been overmatched at that level as a 19 year old.

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