Archive for Prospects

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a third baseman that could help Boston during their race for a playoff spot, an emerging pitching stud for the Astros and an underrated arm for the Reds.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox: The Boston Red Sox appear to be on a collision course with the 2017 playoffs but the team’s biggest gap is likely at third base — especially after Pablo Sandoval was recently cut (not to mention the ill-fated Travis Shaw trade). Devers, a 20-year-old prospect, could be the answer for the Sox. He’s advanced for his age and was recently promoted to triple-A from double-A where he was hitting .300 with a .944 OPS. He’s not easily overwhelmed and seems to handle pressure well; his triple-A debut saw him go 4-for-4 with a homer. He has 19 home runs on the season but makes a solid amount of contact with just 55 strikeouts in 78 games (17.2% K-rate). Devers has the raw power to be a 30-homer guy in his prime. He’ll have to keep an eye on his conditioning to remain at the hot corner but he has a strong arm and should stick at the position for a while. He could eventually challenge Mookie Betts for the most talented home-grown player on the Red Sox.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at three of the lesser-known prospects to appear yesterday in the MLB Futures Game in Miami.

Jaime Barria, RHP, Angels: It’s becoming easier and easier to find intriguing prospects in the Angels system to write about — after years of mediocrity. This 20-year-old Panamanian pitcher isn’t the most physical but he commands three pitches that should grade out as average or better. He’s struck out 83 batters so far this season with just 16 walks in 95.2 innings of work. His sturdy frame could allow him to develop into an innings-eating, back-of-the-rotation arm with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

After beginning the year in high-A ball, Barria has now made five starts in double-A and, if he continues to succeed at the level, he could open 2018 in triple-A with an eye towards a mid-2018 big league debut. The system doesn’t have many near-MLB-ready impact arms and the big league rotation is fragile (both due to health issues and impending free agencies) so players like Barria could be key to the organization’s successes in the near future.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at a Blue Jays’ Futures Game representative, an early 2017 Rule 5 candidate out of the Dodgers and an underrated Minnesota Twins infielder.

Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays: A 2016 second round draft pick, Bichette barely made some publications’ Top 10 prospect lists for the Jays but, six months later, he’s jumped onto everyone’s Top 100 overall prospect lists. The teenaged shortstop is hitting more than .380 and has flirted with .400 much of the first half of the year. He’s going to the Futures Game this weekend and will move up to high-A ball (with 18-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) at the beginning of next week. Bichette has the ability to make uncanny consistent hard contact and leads the Midwest League with 32 doubles (only one other player – five years older – has more than 23). There are doubts over his ability to stick at shortstop but he’s a smart player that seems to pride himself at proving people wrong — so don’t underestimate him. However, even if he does move, he should have lots of arm and power for third base or right field.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a second base prospect enjoying the home-run (juiced ball) revolution, an outfielder who has rebelled against the home-run (juiced ball) revolution, and a pitcher who perhaps has the makings to be the next Chris Devenski.

Scott Kingery, 2B, Phillies: Kingrery is an interesting prospect. He hit eight home runs between being drafted in 2015 (in the second round) and the end of 2016. So far in 2017, through 75 games, he has 21 homers. It’s likely the combination of three things: an adjustment in his swing/approach at the plate, the juiced ball, and the Phillies’ double-A park which inflates home run production. That final point may carry less weight given that Kingrey has launched three of his home runs since being promoted to triple-A six games ago.

Second base incumbent Cesar Hernandez has been a solid player over the past year and a half based mostly on his defence but he’s also starting to get expensive (He’s making $2.6 million this year). Philadelphia, in the midst of a rebuilding phase, could look to trade the veteran to a contender this summer, or possibly this winter, and open up a spot for Kingery — who already has a 20-20 (HR-SB) season as July kicks into full swing. Even if the power output slips, he has the ability to hit for a solid average, get on base consistently and steal some bases — which makes for a very good second baseman who can also play defence competently.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at a breakout Orioles outfielder, more prospect thievery for the Astros, and a wild arm capable of hitting 100 mph.

Austin Hays, OF, Orioles: Selected 91st overall in 2016, Hays has already reached double-A. The well-rounded outfielder has done nothing but hit as a pro despite an inconsistent amateur record. He owns a career .336 average and .945 OPS. And he’s added power to his resume in 2017 with 18 bombs in just 72 games.

Hays has been putting balls over the fence despite a well-controlled swing that helped him strike out just 43 times so far this year (13%) – a very low number for someone closing in on 20 homers. Just 21, his biggest need at this point is to work on getting on base more consistently without having to rely so heavily on his batting average. His walk rate sits at just 4%. Although he’s not a big stolen base guy, Hays should have enough speed to stick in center field for the foreseeable future. He’s been a real steal for the Orioles and someone you’re going to start hearing a lot more about in the near future.

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This week’s prospect stock watch takes a look at an under-the-radar prospect in the Blue Jays system, a shortstop-turned-first baseman showing outstanding pop (and lots of swings and misses), and a long forgotten ($2.5 million) arm now making good in the bullpen.

Edward Olivares, OF, Blue Jays: It’s time to start talking about Olivares – who has been greatly overshadowed by teammates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, two of the top prospects in the game. The lesser known prospect appeared in just 15 games in 2016 due to injury and has made up for lost time in ’17. He’s slugged 11 home runs (fourth in the league) with 14 doubles and eight triples. Olivares, 21, has also successfully stolen 14 bases in 19 tries and is well on his way to a 20-20 season in his first full year. The only real negative to his game so far is the 3.9% walk rate. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions. Look for him to get a taste of high-A ball before the year is out.

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We are nearing the halfway point of the season, and this time of year is often peak prospect season. Top prospects are getting called up (or are about to be) now that the Super Two “deadline” has passed, fantasy teams are quickly shifting into rebuilding mode, and a new crop of draftees is being added to ottoneu. Let’s once again take a look at the top prospect performances (using the tool I put together that pulls from MLBfarm.com) year to date and over the past thirty days.

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Very Quick Look: Tyson Ross

Tyson Ross made one start and his results seem acceptable with a 7.9 K/9 and a 3.18 ERA. Beyond those two stats, his line gets ugly. His fastball velocity is down to 90.1 mph which is ~2.5 mph less than last season and ~4.5 mph off his career peak. He walked three batters in only 5.1 innings of work. His swinging strike rate was just 5.3% which would be a career low.

With the mixed signals, I decided to take a quick look at his start.

• He started off the game with two pitches way outside and walked the first batter. This at bat set the tone for the rest of the game.

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A few weeks ago, I stole RotoGraphs contributor Joe Douglas’ idea (with his permission) as I pointed out that the “generic” Tommy Pham had provided surprisingly similar offensive production in his career to the “brand name” Michael Conforto. It was a fun exercise, and one that we’re going to do again today.

To set the stage, we’re going to talk about two rookies with outfield eligibility. One receives plenty of attention and hype; the other, not so much. Mr. Generic debuted in 2016 but is still considered a rookie this season, while Mr. Brand Name debuted in 2017. Here’s how they’ve fared so far this year:

The first thing that jumps out is the nearly 100-point difference in BABIP, and the fact that Mr. Generic’s BABIP is perhaps unsustainably high. More about that in a minute.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re taking a look at three players that could be Top 100 prospects by the end of the year — if they’re not already.

Taylor Trammell, OF, Reds: The Reds system got a whole lot better last week after the club cleaned up during the 2017 amateur draft. But the system already had some solid prospects — including Trammell, who was selected 35th overall in the ’16 draft. The 19-year-old outfielder is enjoying a solid first full year in pro ball. At the low-A level, he’s showing his power-speed threat with 27 of his 64 hits going for extra bases and his 17 steals in 22 tries. Trammell is also displaying a willingness to take a free pass with a walk rate at 12.1%. His swing-and-miss tendencies might suppress his batting average a bit but the quick wheels give him a chance to offset that with some infield hits. In his prime, he has a shot at being a 20-20 player (HR-SB).

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