Archive for Prospects

On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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There were a few years there that I dreaded writing about the Angels for this series but no more… The organization has some legitimately intriguing prospects. Don’t just take my word for it, let’s have a look!

The Graduate: Parker Bridwell, RHP: Earlier this week, I stated that the Dodgers had one of the best player development systems in the game. Well, the Orioles probably have one of the worst… and Bridwell is a perfect example of a player simply needing a change of scenery to realize his full potential. With that said, the right-hander’s potential is modest and he’ll probably settle in as more of a No. 4 starter. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and he produces a lot of fly balls, which is a dangerous combination. His heater is average but it plays up because he has above-average control and keeps hitters off balance with multiple offerings.

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Recently I created a new dynasty baseball league customized around the basic game of Ottoneu.  The more you play Ottoneu the more you come to appreciate how deep the player pool really is, and the longer I play fantasy baseball the more interested I become in the minor league development process.  While there is still plenty of luck involved, the satisfaction of “discovering” the next Rhys Hoskins before everyone else is a feeling that keeps me coming back to the game over and over.

In addition to the standard economics of Ottoneu where each league consists of twelve owners and 480 rostered players (minors and majors), our league will roster an additional 180 minor leaguers (15 extra per team) in an attempt to “develop” successful franchises for years to come.  Since the regular MLB season is wrapping up soon and many fantasy owners are starting to look towards 2018, I thought it might be helpful to review our prospect draft over the next several posts to give you some insight into the valuation of these minor league lottery tickets.  If nothing else, this draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.  

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The Dodgers system has it all: Impact talent, depth, excellent scouts and a proven player development system that just might be the best in the game.

The Graduate: Cody Bellinger, OF/1B: I had no doubt that Bellinger was going to be an impact player at the big league level but I didn’t expect it to happen so quickly. I also — most certainly — did not expect him to slug 38 home runs as a rookie in 2017. The freshman has struck out too much this season but the power and the on-base percentage makes the swing-and-miss entirely palatable. Known as an excellent defender at first base who can also play a solid outfield, Bellinger’s work out in the pastures left something to be desired while his work in the infield was as expected. That’s kind of bad news, though, since injured, veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez still has $21.5 million owed to him in 2018. As a result, Bellinger may have to spend a full season in the outfield until the contract expires. Once he settles in at first base for good, he should be there for a decade or more.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have some intriguing, high-ceiling prospects and quite a few intriguing players sprinkled throughout their minor league system. I quite liked their 2017 draft.

First Taste of The Show: Ildemaro Vargas, IF: The Diamondbacks didn’t really give much playing time to rookies in 2017 so I’ll focus on Vargas even though he had just three plate appearances in The Show. He actually has a chance to be an intriguing utility guy off the bench but the organization stuck with mostly at second base and that has hurt his value. He received opportunities at third base, shortstop and center field – but those opportunities were few and far between. Vargas’ strength comes from making an insane amount of contact – He struck out just 7.5% of the time at triple-A in 2017. He showed a willingness to take a walk in the lower minors but, at the upper levels, he’s been far more reliant on his batting average to drive his on-base percentage. Still, middle infielders that can consistently threaten to hit .300 are in short supply.

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It wasn’t a great year for the Giants in 2017 and, unfortunately, there isn’t much help coming from the farm for 2018. The organization has some depth — especially in the outfield — but the system lacks impact bats and arms.

The Graduate: Ty Blach, LHP: As mentioned, there wasn’t much that went right for the Giants in 2017 but the development of Blach rates as one of the best. And I kinda saw it coming. He’s soaked up innings for the Giants as a freshman and currently sits at 150. He gives up a lot of hits (166) and doesn’t miss many bats (70 Ks) but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks (36) and he does a respectable job of keeping the ball in the park (16 HRs). The southpaw throws four pitches for strikes even if the heater sits around 90 mph. He’ll never be a star but Blach should continue to eat up innings and provide league-average-ish numbers for the Giants at the backend of the rotation — and in this era of the long-ball there is a lot of value in that skill.

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A.J. Preller made a lot of moves early in his tenure as Padres general manager but his two best acquisitions came from a seemingly-thrown-in prospect during a trade with the White Sox and the ’17 draft. San Diego has one of the better systems in the game.

The Graduate: Manuel Margot, OF: Margot (1.8 WAR) and pitcher Dinelson Lamet (1.4) have had the biggest rookie impacts on the Padres in 2017. Both players will likely enter 2018 with question marks, though. Lamet’s (mostly) two-pitch repertoire will need to continue to challenge hitters to keep him from eventually shifting to the bullpen. Margot will try and squeeze more value out of his bat after having the majority of his strength come from his outfield defence. Still, there are promising signs from Margot – including a 22.5% line-drive rate and reasonable 19.5% strikeout rate. If he can find a way to get on base more consistently and improve his base running (He’s just 13-for-19), the 22-year-old outfielder center-fielder could become a threat at the top of the order for San Diego.

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Most of my articles are based off myself wanting to know about a subject and just hoping some readers want similar information. I’ve been overwhelmed over the last week with various names and roles for several prospects. Today, I am going to try to wade through these recent promotions to see which players are rosterable and which are just fluff. They are generally listed in my order of preference but each owner will need to see if a player (e.g. Greg Allen for steals) is usable depending on their own team needs.

Hitters

Jeimer Candelario: His value comes down to he can hit for some power and is playing regularly for the Tigers. Additionally, he’s been red hot since joining the Tigers (.400/.478/.500). He should be a .250 hitter with double digit home runs, and no stolen bases over a full. While boring, he is the only hitter featured playing every day.

Greg Allen: In daily lineup leagues, I see him as a must own for owners needing steals. Allen has one usable fantasy trait and that’s stealing bases. Like many of the rookies called up, he’s not getting regular playing time. He’s only started two games but has been in three others as a pinch hitter or runner. Because of his pinch running skills, steal deprived owners can start him if they have another player taking the day off hoping Allen gets used as a pinch runner. Owners shouldn’t count on him for any other production besides the steals.

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The organization is rich in third bas prospects. MVP candidate and Gold Glover Nolan Arenado isn’t going anywhere, which is causing a backlog with MLB-ready Ryan McMahon looking for another position to play. Behind him, the club has 2016 draft pick Colton Welker (.904 OPS in low-A) and 2017 draft pick Ryan Vilade (.934 OPS in Rookie), who played shortstop in his debut but is expected to move off the position shortly.

The Graduate: German Marquez, RHP: The Rockies graduated an impressive number of starters to The Show in 2017 including Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Marquez. The other three arms generally got more love at the beginning of the year but I put my money on Marquez and he responded with a 2.3 win season – pacing all Rockies starters. Using predominantly a two-pitch repertoire (mid-90s fastball and curveball), he showed swing-and-miss stuff as well as above-average control. Marquez has been understandably better on the road (4.50 vs 3.86 ERA) but hasn’t really been that bad at home. He’s a good bet to continue to get better in 2018

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch looks at an Astros triple-A starter who might be able to help out the big league club’s bewildered bullpen, and two very toolsy athletes.

Rogelio Armenteros, RHP, Astros: Houston has been as aggressive as any organization in snapping up Cuban pitching talent with the likes of Cionel Perez ($2 million) and Elian Rodriguez ($1.9 million) but the best results have come from a hurler that cost just $40,000. Armenteros, 23, isn’t as flashy as the other two arms mentioned above but he has a much greater chance of impacting the big league product — and in the near future. He opened the 2017 season in double-A but has now made nine triple-A starts and he keeps getting better. He’s flirted with no-hitters in his last two appearances with just two hits allowed in 15 innings – along with three walks and 17 Ks.

He’s not overpowering but Armenteros knows how to change speeds and eye levels to keep opponents off-balance. His heater works in the 90-93 mph range and his go-to offering is a changeup. Long-term, he looks like an innings-eating No. 4 starter but, if I were the Astros, I’d consider trying him in the bullpen when rosters expand in September. He might just succeed (along the lines of Joe Musgrove) where the likes of Francisco Liriano and Tyler Clippard have failed.

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