Happy Game 7 Day!

About a year ago I released my (2017) Top 50 Fantasy Prospect rankings using the Prospect Scorecard to weight a variety of important variables in the context of fantasy baseball.  Today I’m publishing an (early) expanded list of the Top 100 Fantasy Prospects for 2018 for both Ottoneu’s FanGraphs Points leagues (where wOBA is a key measure on offense) and Roto leagues (5 x 5).

A few quick notes before we begin:

• Since “Cost” is league-dependent (auction salary, keeper round, etc.), I’ve ignored it here for simplicity by keeping it constant for every prospect listed. Feel free to use the Scorecard to make changes that reflect true player costs for your league, which will impact these rankings.
• These rankings below are intended to represent the 100 most valuable prospects for fantasy leagues (depending on scoring format).
• It’s quite possible I’m missing an obvious player that should be ranked, so let me know in the comments.  We can discuss the specific rationale for player rankings in the comments, too.  Player ages are current ages.
• For a lot more prospect resources, check out the Ottoneu community.

Here are the (early) 2018 Top 100 prospects for the linear-weights-based FanGraphs Points scoring format (a good proxy for those in OBP leagues):

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The Graduate: Amir Garrett, LHP: Coming off of a strong 2016 season, Garrett positioned himself well to pitch some big innings for the Reds in 2017. He ended up throwing 70.2 innings but his ERA of 7.39 was down right ugly. He was hittable (9.42 H/9) and walked a lot of batters (5.09 BB/9), which is a terrible combination. Worse yet, he allowed 23 homers — good for an ugly 2.93 HR/9 (the worst rate in the Majors for pitchers with more than 50 innings pitched). Garrett, 25, will have to focus on improved command and control if he’s going to get another shot at starting for the Reds. If he can’t, though, his fastball-changeup combo could be enough to be an impact reliever.

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The Brewers have an exciting young team and there is more impact talent on the way.

The Graduate: Josh Hader, LHP: You don’t often receive a promotion to the Majors when your ERA is 5.37 but the Brewers knew Hader had a chance to help by shifting from the rotation to the bullpen. It was an astute move and he threw 47.2 innings in The Show and allowed just 25 hits. He overpowered big league hitters with his fastball-slider mix and struck out 68 batters. To have success in the Majors as a starter, though, Hader will have to throw more strikes; he walked almost as many hitters as he allowed hits to in 2017: 22 walks to 25 hits. He’ll also want to continue to polish his changeup. Even if he sticks in the ‘pen, the left-hander has a chance to be an impact arm for the Brewers.

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The Cubs system has been hurt by promotions and trades but there are still some interesting players throughout the minors.

The Graduate: Ian Happ, IF/OF: Happ (aka Mr. Ben-Zobrist-lite) reached the Majors more quickly than expected thanks to the injuries that plagued the team in May. He produced some outstanding power numbers with 24 of him 92 hits going for home runs (good for a .261 ISO). Impressively, he also managed to hit .253 despite striking out more than 31% of the time. His versatility makes him incredibly valuable and he played mostly second base and center field but also dabbled in third base and both corner outfield spots. Happ, 23, needs some work to become a more complete player with the bat but he should continue to play every day in 2018.

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Last week I laid out my plans for combining prospect grades and “scoutable” traits to help project major league performance. Finally, I’m able to output projections with encouraging results. Just by using traits people can scout with their eyes, I created a set of projections which competes with Steamer projections. Additionally, it helps point to the traits people should look for in prospects.

Previously, I tried to use just the five traits prospects get graded on (Hit, Power, Speed, Field, and Arm) to come up with a player’s value. I found the Speed and Power grades useful but came to the following conclusion on the Hit grade:

Basically, the Hit tool is a useless component to determine hitter value as it’s currently being distributed.

The more I thought about the Hit tool, the more I concluded that it’s trying to evaluate too much information (examples of different Hit tool definitions).

For these projections, I matched up the traits hitters display with common stats. To start with, here are the core traits I decided to utilize:
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The Astros have a talented, young team but the minor league system is starting to thin out now. With that said, there are still a few prospects with high ceilings, such as outfielder Kyle Tucker and pitcher Forrest Whitley.

The Graduate: Francis Martes, RHP: The Astros have a relatively young team but the club didn’t rely heavily on rookies in 2017. Derek Fisher led the first-year hitters with 166 plate appearances while Martes led the freshman pitchers with 54.1 innings — narrowly edging a more effective James Hoyt. Why focus on the former and not the latter? Hoyt has solid potential as a one-inning reliever but Martes has additional value as a guy that can go multiple innings out of the ‘pen or could eventually move back into the starting rotation. Just 21, he already flashes three potentially-plus offerings but it’s his lack of control and command that holds him back. Martes sits in the mid-90s with his heat but until he trims his walk rate (5.13 BB/9) he’ll be pitching in triple-A or mopping up games in the Majors.

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Sunday, October 15th is a significant signpost for the fantasy baseball off-season as it marks the beginning of Ottoneu arbitration, the 30 day process that helps leagues maintain competitive, economic balance. Ottoneu offers a ton of great features in its standard platform, but there are few more intimidating to a brand new owner than this annual salary-sharing arbitration event. Here is a summary of the more popular “allocation” option:

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Last offseason I committed to finding if there was any information to be gleaned from prospect grades. Sometimes the grades were useful. Other times not at all. While I made some conclusions, many are still unanswered. Over the next few weeks, I going to try to find those answers.

I’m heading down the path with an unknown timetable or conclusion. My goal is to take scoutable hitter traits and come up with a usable projection system. For inputs, I will use the standard five 20-80 scouting traits of Bat, Power, Speed, Defense, and Arm. Using just these factors last year, I found an OK estimate of a player’s projection.

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The Rangers had an impressive 2017 draft and feature an intriguing collection of talented players — especially in the low minors.

The Graduate: Jose Leclerc, RHP: The Rangers are known for churning out young, high-impact players but that wasn’t the case in 2017 with Leclerc as the top rookie with a 0.2 WAR. He showed swing-and-miss stuff with a strikeout rate of 11.82 K/9 but he also walked almost eight batters per nine innings. He predominantly relies on a fastball-changeup combo but mixes in a few other offerings and his slider shows some potential. He put a lot of batters on base — mainly due to the free pass — but was difficult to hit and allowed just 23 base knocks. If he can find a way to locate the plate more consistently then he could be a very dominating pitcher.

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Recently I reviewed the results of the first few rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  The review continues today with a quick look at some key selections in rounds 7 – 9.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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