The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After subjecting three straight hitters to the Pod Projection process, it’s time to move on to starting pitchers. I have decided to begin with everyone’s favorite sleeper, Reds sophomore Raisel Iglesias. After coming over from Cuba, Iglesias has pitched just 36 minor league innings and 95.1 Major League innings. And despite a lackluster 4.15 ERA during his debut, the hype machine has been running all offseason.

Such a limited track record and unimpressive ERA doesn’t typically result in an NFBC ADP that equates to the 40th starting pitcher selected. So what we have here is our classic so-called sleeper, who isn’t going for sleeper prices. As a result, he’s no sleeper, as everyone is on the bandwagon. Are fantasy owners justified in their optimism?

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It’s back to another Steamer and I, as I compare my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts and identify players we disagree on most. Last time, I switched gears, discussing Mike Trout, who surprisingly I was far more bearish on than Steamer.

I am continuing the bearish theme with our next man, the ManBearPuig himself, Yasiel Puig. Puig made a splash in his 2013 debut, posting a .398 wOBA with strong power, some speed, and excellent defense in right field. But since, his offensive production has been in decline and last year he battled injuries en route to just a .328 wOBA. I think we all assume a rebound is in order, but the question is how much?

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Today, I continue this year’s Steamer and I series, but switch it up to the other side. That is, the first two players I compared my Pod Projection to Steamer were those I was significantly more bullish on. Now I’ll take a look at a player I am far more bearish on than Steamer.

It should not surprise you that the fantasy relevant player I’m most pessimistic on versus Steamer is actually Xander Bogaerts, who I discussed last week. Obviously, I’m not going to talk about him a second time. So instead, I move down the list and find a big surprise – 2014 MVP Mike Trout. I debated whether it was even worth writing a potentially negative article on him because my opinion isn’t going to matter much. But I’m actually quite curious about what is driving my pessimism versus Steamer since this is a complete surprise to me. So let’s find out, shall we?

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

It was fairly easy to decide who should get the third Pod Projection treatment of the 2016 preseason. The second overall pick in the 2013 June Amateur Draft, Kris Bryant shot through the minor leagues after destroying minor league pitching and finally made his highly anticipated debut in 2015. He didn’t disappoint, as he posted a .371 wOBA and performed exactly as we expected – lots of swings and misses resulting in strikeouts, a strong walk rate, and excellent power.

Naturally, fantasy owners are expecting the sun, the moon, and the stars from him in 2016, as his NFBC ADP currently sits at 11th overall. He has been selected as early as fourth (!!!!!) and as late as 22nd. Are they crazy for their super optimism, or justified to believe an offensive explosion is on its way?

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Yesterday marked the triumphant return of the Steamer and I series, as I started things off with a comparison of Michael Conforto’s Pod Projection and Steamer forecast. Today I will continue with a player I am much more optimistic about than Steamer, Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes had a dreamy two months with the Mets, driving an overall offensive performance rebound back to the level he enjoyed during his 2012 debut. Though no one expects him to repeat that level of production over a full year, lost in what Cespedes did was that he had already rebounded in his first four months with the Tigers. The Mets performance simply made his rebound more dramatic. So let’s dig into the numbers and find out why I’m so much more bullish than Steamer.

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Welcome to the return of the Steamer and I series. I debuted Steamer and I last year and have decided to bring it back for an encore performance. In the series, I pit my Pod Projection against Steamer, comparing wOBA forecasts for hitters and ERA for pitchers. I’ll choose several fantasy relevant players to discuss on each end of the spectrum – those I am far more optimistic on and those I am more bearish on.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Yesterday, I published my first Pod Projection of the year, and the honor was bestowed upon the Dodgers’ hyped young shortstop, Corey Seager. Several commenters asked me to clarify my feelings on Seager’s ADP in relation to Xander Bogaerts, so I figured I might as well expand upon my thoughts on the latter by giving him the full Pod Projection treatment.

Bogaerts, a former top prospect with the Red Sox, completely transformed into a new type of hitter in 2015. It’s odd because this is something you might expect from an established veteran who is compensating for deteriorating skills. Established veteran Bogaerts is not, but the finished product delivered significantly more offensive value than the 2014 version. He struck out far less, though his SwStk% only declined marginally, the respectable minor league power he had displayed in the past declined even further, he became an extreme ground ball hitter, at the expense of fly balls, he went to the opposite field with dramatically greater frequency, and his BABIP skyrocketed. Phew! Is there anything in Bogaerts’ statistical profile that didn’t change drastically?! His line drive and pop-up rates were virtually unchanged, so there’s that!

With all these changes, it makes projecting his 2016 performance that much more difficult. It’s hard enough forecasting a player with just two Major League seasons to his name, so when we cannot even determine a true baseline for his skills, we’re essentially just taking a wild guess. So here goes…

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

The honor for first 2016 Pod Projectionee goes to Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager. He came to the plate just 113 times in his Major League cup of coffee, but man did he impress. He posted a robust .421 wOBA and displayed elite underlying skills across the board. I wrote him up in mid-November, concluding with the following:

With all the other exciting sophomores getting more attention, it’s possible Seager slips under the radar, even with his excellent September performance. Normally, he’s the type of player who would be a near lock to be overvalued. But I’m not so sure about it. In fact, I’m rather curious where fantasy owners will peg his value. I don’t expect a big breakout, but he could very well be a solid across the board contributor.

“…it’s possible Seager slips under the radar”, ha! He’s currently the 55th player off the board and third shortstop selected according to NFBC ADP. Surely fantasy owners haven’t forgotten about him and are putting an awful lot of stock into his prospect pedigree and a tiny sample of MLB performance. Are they justified in their optimism?

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Is Justin Upton going to bat second for the Tigers? Or sixth? What would happen to Addison Russell‘s value if he moved from ninth in the order to second? Is Corey Dickerson really going to hit cleanup for the Rays? How does Yoenis Cespedes‘ signing affect Michael Conforto’s projections?

When it comes to evaluating our typical fantasy baseball hitting categories, we know that home runs, batting average, and stolen bases are dependent upon some mix of skill and playing time (let’s say “skill-dependent”). Runs and RBI are a bit more difficult to assess. They have playing time and skill elements (getting on base and hitting for power), but they are also largely team-dependent. The projection systems, like Steamer, project R and RBI for us, but what if we want to make an adjustment? Or we want to take a gamble on a player winning a particular battle?

My goal with this post is to provide a simple framework that can be used to quickly answer questions like those above. I’m also not the first to attempt this task. So when I’m done displaying my method, I’ll share the other strong approaches I’ve been able to find. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of weeks ago, I examined some players whose playing times seemed to be undecided. Today I am going to continue looking at somw more (full list of players in a spreadsheet).

When will Prince Fielder get 1B eligibility?

For owners in leagues with 18 or less games to gain eligibility, you have nothing to worry about this season. Now, for leagues with 20 game eligibility issues, most have a 10 game in season requirement.

Looking at his Fielders 2015 1B usage, half of his 18 1B games were in April. After then, it was just over 1 per month and of those nine games, seven were interleague contests. With Mitch Moreland handling normal 1B duties again, I see it being tough for Fielder to get a ton of time at 1B without a Moreland injury. He will need to play in all interleague games and here is when those games happen for the Rangers in 2016.

Apr: 0
May: 0
Jun: 3
July 3
Aug: 4
Sep: 0

With an optimistic two extra games a month at 1B, he won’t be eligible until July if he starts all interleague games. It could be longer with the eligibility pushed into late August.

I think I would only consider him a DH for the season and if he gets 1B eligibility, bonus.

David Wright will max out playing only 130 games. Probably closer to 112 games. Read the rest of this entry »