Yesterday, I reviewed the first preseason Pod vs Steamer projections article, beginning with the hitters I projected for home run upside. Today, we’ll flip to the other side, as I review the home run downside guys. Hopefully I perform better than my upside guys!
When I hear or read about a hitter playing through an injury my interest perks up and he becomes an immediate draft target. Standard projections have no idea these players played hurt and the lower production keeps down future estimations. Savvy owners can give these players a small talent bump and reap some nice rewards. My current request to create a detailed list of hitters playing through injuries for 2019 preseason research and to test after next season.
A fun activity for me each preseason is comparing my Pod Projections to the Steamer projections. While the forecasts in various categories for most players are negligible, of course there are some that are wildly different. One comparison I made was looking at which hitters I projected for more homers than Steamer. However, rather than compare the raw home run total, which is greatly influenced by the at-bat projection, I computed each projection’s AB/HR ratio. So let’s find out how the guys I identified as having AB/HR upside performed.
As has now been an annual tradition, I published a series of Pod Projections before the season begin, and then compared my projection to the rest of the systems available on the player pages. We’ll start the reviews with Whit Merrifield, who came out of nowhere in 2017 to become a fantasy stud, swatting 19 homers and stealing 34 bases. Let’s see how he performed compared to my projection and the computer systems.
Looking back, Jesus Aguilar had so many forces working to hold down his pre-season value, I’m amazed some teams rostered him (566th in NFBC ADP). While he had the tools for a breakout, it’s tough to find actionable pre-season moves to prevent similar players from slipping through the cracks. Once he got the opportunity to play, owners should have jumped in to roster him.
The first item to consider in the miss is that Aguilar’s projections weren’t glowing. Of all projected hitters in our pre-season depth charts, he came in at 245th by OPS. Not the best ranking for a 1B, especially compared to his teammate Eric Thames.
Here are the pair’s various OPS projections coming into the season.
| ZiPS | Steamer | ATC | The BAT | Average | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Thames | 0.855 | 0.834 | 0.865 | 84% | 85% | 78% |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.734 | 0.728 | 0.818 | 77% | 76% | 89% |
In the #2earlymock drafts run by our own Justin Mason, Javier Baez is going 17th and Trevor Story is going 20th among all hitters. The picks are quite high considering Baez was the 58th hitter taken, and Story was 65th in NFBC drafts last year. The pair didn’t have must-draft preseason hype and their suspect plate discipline limited their perceived value. Both exceeded all expectations as they came in at 6th and 7th overall this year. This was a huge miss by the industry and I’m going to see if some traits point to why some low plate discipline players break out and others don’t.
For every Baez and Story, other bad plate discipline hitters failed like Byron Buxton (.383 OPS), Chris Davis (.539 OPS), Miguel Sano (.679 OPS) and Jonathan Schoop (.682 OPS). No obvious difference stood out. While Chris Davis is old, Buxton, Sano, and Schoop should be in their primes. To find out who may break out, I decided to start with the 2018 Bad Plate Discipline Class.
Today, I start the process examining who the industry, owners, and myself missed on with their preseason evaluations. Did a smoking gun exist and everyone missed it or was there no way to guess the outcome? I’m going to start with two pitchers who had smoking guns, I wrote about the smoking guns, and then I totally ignored them.
The two starters are Gerrit Cole and Anibal Sanchez. Back in February, I highlighted both in a pitch mix change article. Looking back, I made a convincing case for taking a chance on either one. I spent a few hours doing the research and when it came to draft day, I never picked up a share. I failed as both overperformed.
The date is March 19, 2018. You are about to compete in a live NFBC fantasy baseball auction. You are prepping vigorously for your draft auction. You are reading over your player lists, mulling over which OFs you will go for at the auction table.
Fast forward to September 27, 2018. Now that the season is almost all in the books, you can now look back at your fantasy auction and see all the good, the great, the bad and the terrible decisions you had made just 6 months prior.
Let’s start with a simple OF decision. Which player should you have bought back in March?
Mike Trout (OF, LAA)
OR
Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN)
Sounds like a fairly easy decision, no? But to help you out, before you answer the question … I’ll provide you with some 2018 statistics (as of 9/26):
This past weekend, I attended the always incredible SaberSeminar in Boston. It was great time catching up with friends (Dave Cameron sighting) but also to take in some innovative ideas. I decided to share some fantasy applicable topics which were discussed.
Experimentally determining the “Commit Point” – Evaluating the time it takes a hitter to check his swing by William Clark and Joe Petrich
Pitch Tunneling, Pitch Calling and Expected Outcome: A Former Pitcher’s Perspective by Dan Blewett
Pitching tunneling was brought up several times by several speakers but these two came to the same conclusion. The reaction time for a batter to determine the pitch type may be less than previously calculated. It was thought that a hitter had around 225 ms to 275 ms to decide to swing. It’s possible that the time may be under 200 ms and the batter may be keying off the release point.
Also, if a pitcher is struggling, it might be worth looking over at his release point charts (example with Jon Gray). Make sure all the pitches are clustered together and haven’t been recent moving around.
Read the rest of this entry »
The Rockies system is strong, led by a collection of impressive infielders. The biggest weakness, though, is that lack of pitching depth.
Click here for the pre-season Top 10
1. Brendan Rodgers | SS | AA —> Selected in the first round back in 2015, Rodgers should be ready for his first taste of The Show in 2019. He’s having an OK year in double-A but his aggressiveness continues to limit his overall offensive value. He’s walking a little more but he still needs to wait for better pitches to drive at times. He’s showing good power, which should play nicely in Colorado and he has 17 home runs in 84 games (as well as 21 doubles). I don’t know if he’ll be a star but he should be a very productive player.
2. Colton Welker | 3B | A+ —> I’ve been a huge Welker fan since he was stolen in the fourth round of the 2016 draft. Just 20, he’s having a strong season in high-A. He’s shown the consistent ability to hit for average and he’s doing a good job of controlling the strike zone. He has raw power that he has yet to fully tap into, which will only further increase his value as he approaches the Majors. Currently blocked at third base by Nolan Arenado, Welker could eventually replace him, or perhaps move to right field where his strong arm would continue to be an asset.