11/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Gabe Kapler to SF (5:25)
• Cincy interested in Marcell Ozuna (12:33)
• Gerrit Cole unlikely to sign before 2020 [report] (16:16)
• SD out on Stephen Strasburg? [report] (18:50)

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This year’s edition of the Fantasy Baseball Process by Tanner Bell and myself is finally completed and the e-book is now available for sale (the paper version will be available at Amazon in a few weeks). We added over 50 pages of new material (link to list), cut out some info we felt was not needed, and included the historic standings and Standing Gains Points formulas to help with planning the 2020 season.

Before I move along to some of the highlights, I’d like to thank Dylan Higgins for the editing, Jared Cross for the Steamer projections, Clay Link for the introduction, Rob Silver for giving it a read over, and especially Tanner for hours and hours spent grinding through all the new changes.
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11/07/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• AA v. MLBPA
• ATL making Madison Bumgarner a priority
• TB/MIA interested in Howie Kendrick

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There is no need to beat around the bush with an intro full of cliches and examples. Simply does playing in the postseason wear down a player enough to effect their next season’s production?

Simple answer: Not really.

Less simple answer: Some with hitters, not at all with pitchers.

Complex answer: Danger math.

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When I wrote my article on disappointing 2019 hitters, the data diverged from expectations in one subset of hitters. Injured players dominated the list but they also saw a huge drop in their production to the tune of about 100 points of OPS. While the season-to-season OPS values are never exactly one-for-one, a 100 point dropped is huge especially since the league’s overall OPS jumped 30 points last season. I needed to dig in.

It’s going to get a little nerdy as I have to explain how I examined the data. To try to minimize the pre and post-injury production from the investigation, I only looked at players who were placed on the IL in March or April. Little if any of their production should have been before the injury. A second reason was to help project hitters who are dealing with offseason surgeries (e.g. Adalberto Mondesi). So, over the past 10 seasons, 627 hitters met these criteria.
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Today, I finish my comparison of Pod ERA projections vs Steamer with the downside guys. Given that league ERA was at its highest since 2006, this should be an easy win for Pod. But, I only listed and discussed four pitchers, probably because on the whole, Pod was more bullish on ERA than Steamer was (oops), so there were fewer pitchers I was projecting for a significantly worse ERA. Let’s see how the for performed.

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Today, I review my ERA upside guys, which included 13 names I was projecting for an ERA significantly better than Steamer. Let’s find out how these pitchers performed and which projection was closer.

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Last week, I looked at the largest auction player bargains of 2019. These were the players who were highly profitable after considering their opportunity cost of acquisition. We defined the bargain amount as:

$Bargain = $Value – $AAV

We defined $Value as the accumulated 5×5 full season rotisserie value of each player, and $AAV as the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season. We make use of the NFBC Average Auction Values which are readily available to us.

For the full methodology of how these player bargains are calculated, please refer to my introductory post.

Today’s attention will be directed to what I refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest “rip-offs” of 2019 – i.e., the players who earned the most negative profits for fantasy owners on a full season basis (net of their auction price). Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed my pre-season stolen base upside guys, comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer. I didn’t fare too well, coming closer than Steamer on just one out of five. Today, I hope to perform better, as I review my stolen base downside guys, comparing my PA/SB forecast to Steamer’s. Let’s find out how I did.

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Since I publish my own projections, I like to compare the completed set to Steamer to see which players and stat categories we disagree on the most. So in mid-March, I compared my stolen base projection over 650 plate appearances, using an implied PA/SB forecast, to Steamer’s and then discussed the five hitters I was most bullish on. Let’s find out how those hitters actually performed and which projection system was closer.

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