The Trading Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Fred Zinkie

Strategy Section

Trading

• General Trading Philosophy
• When to look for a trade vs. playing the waiver wire
• Identifying what to trade for, and who to trade on your roster
  • High gradient categories
• How to negotiate trades
  • Should you make offers close to final, or low-ball with room to negotiate?
  • Sending out bad trade offers
  • Taking the time to explain trade offers to others
  • Negotiating with one team alone vs. pitting one team against the other
    • Never divulge trade negotiations directly
• Does standings position matter for trade needs?
  • Decreasing risk / diversifying when you have a lead
  • Increasing risk when far behind
• Fairness of Trades
  • Top teams trading with bottom teams
  • Instituting pay scales throughout the entire standings
  • Reinsurance’s take on fairness in fantasy sports
  • Moving up the league’s trade deadline

Fernando Tatis Jr.

• Were we wrong earlier in the season advocating to trade him?
  • Recap of Tatis trade advice from earlier this season
  • Trust the process, not the results
• Risk comparison to Luis Castillo (underperformance)
• Risk comparison to Adalberto Mondesi (health risk)
• League depth matters

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jerry Blevins, Former Major League Pitcher

Interview

• All-Star Game Uniforms
• Life after baseball
• Jerry Blevins Trivia
• Game planning
  • Pitching to power versus contact batters
• Thoughts on new MLB rule changes
  • 3 Batter Minimum
  • Extra Innings Rule
  • 7 Inning Doubleheaders
• Sticky Substances Ban
• Cheating in Baseball
• Injury counts on the rise
• Progression of baseball analytics throughout Jerry’s career
• Balance of scouting & analytics in baseball
• Pitching against childhood hero, Ken Griffey Jr.
• The Love of Baseball
• Philly Cheasestakes in the visiting clubhouse
• Autograph story – Jeremy Blevins

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Howard Johnson (HoJo), Former Major League All-Star & 2x World Series Champion

Interview

• Life after baseball
• Breakthrough moment of career
• Being on-deck during the infamous Mookie Wilson at-bat of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series
• Ariel’s father asks HoJo a question – Playing different positions
• Analytics in the 1980s
• Analytics during the coaching days
• Davey Johnson / Sparky Anderson as coaches
• HoJo’s closest teamate friends today
• Comeback at age 50 with the Rockland Boulders
• Grandson Tanner Johnson’s accident
  • Please support Tanner by donating to his Go Fund Me account. More details below.
• The 30/30 club
• The Dave Bergman HR game in 1984
• HoJo is 20 in Hebrew!
• Switching uniform number briefly to 44
• Pete Alonso HR Derby winner
• Participating in 2 homerun derbys
• Beating out Barry Bonds & Will Clark for the HR & RBI title in 1991

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The Blue Jays Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Rob Silver

LABR Mixed Auction League Update

Ariel’s Softball League Update

Rob’s Personal History in Fantasy Baseball

All-Star Trivia

Strategy Section

• Waiver Wire
  • Was bidding for Alek Manoah too high?
  • Does standing position matter when making bids?
  • Bidding on a dropped top-50 player.
  • Dropping closers late in-season to burn others’ FAAB.
• Middle Relievers
  • Using middle relievers over 6th/7th starting pitchers in fantasy lineups.
  • Streaming middle relievers
• Richard Rodriguez
  • Is there any action that fatnasy owners should take in the next week?
  • What is the probability that he will accumulate meaningful saves for the rest of the season?
• Bench Slots
  • How to balance your roster with injuries vs. potential closer gambles vs. player streaming.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Closer Situation
  • Julian Merryweather update
• Deadline Trades – Team Needs
  • 3B/OF
• Randal Grichuk
  • Rankings Game – versus:
    • Bryan Reynolds
    • Hunter Renfroe
    • Andrew McCutchen
    • Max Kepler
    • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
• Catcher Situation

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Note: During the All-Star break, at least Paul and I are going to break down pitcher results and they will all be in this article for easy reference. The article will grow throughout the week as more and reports get done. Please submit pitcher recommendations in the comments making sure it’s only actionable pitchers (no Cole’s or Giolito’s).

Background

For those coming back from a two-year submarine tour, here is some background on the current state of the sticky substance ban. Pitchers who use sticky stuff on baseballs create more spin and more spin can lead to more strikeouts for certain pitches. Someone(s) felt it was finally important to start enforcing the rule after decades of turning a blind eye. Here is the time timeline for the crackdown. Read the rest of this entry »

The Fantasy All-Stars Roundtable Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Paul Sporer & Justin Mason (The Sleeper & The Bust)

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

1st Half Fantasy MVP – Hitters

• Shohei Ohtani
• Cedric Mullins
• Kyle Schwarber
• Jared Walsh

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The Lone Star State Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Kevin Goldstein

Personal history in the business

Texas Rangers

• Potential Trade Candidates
  • Ian Kennedy
• Closer Situation should Kennedy be traded
  • Joely Rodriguez
  • Taylor Hearn
  • Josh Sborz
• Adolis Garcia
  • Where does he rank amongst outfielders in 5×5 roto?
  • Rankings Game
• Dane Dunning
  • Possible innings limit in 2021?
• Rangers Prospects
  • Josh Jung
  • Cole Winn
  • Davis Wendzel

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A whopping eight years ago, I shared the hitter xK% metric I developed using a couple of our plate discipline metrics. It was quite good, using only three variables, but still had a strong R-squared of 0.81. Since then, I haven’t discussed it all that much, but still use it to help formulate my Pod Projections. However, I have actually been using an updated version that I had never shared and it’s even better. The comments on my recent xwOBA articles inspired me to finally reveal the latest and greatest version of the hitter xK% metric.

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The DC Area Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Britt Ghiroli

Personal history in the business

Strategy Section

• 2021 Doubleheaders – Setting fantasy lineups

Sticky Substances

Washington Nationals

• Will the Nationals be buyers or sellers?
  • Potential Trade Candidates
• Closer Situation
• Josh Bell
• Updates on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg
• Nationals Prospects
  • Cade Cavalli
  • Jackson Rutledge

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Today’s article has been a couple of weeks in the making. I know it came up when one of my co-managers, Fred Zinkie, asked how much a pitcher’s performance changes if they immediately reface the same team. I don’t remember the pitcher or team involved but I didn’t know the answer so I’d find it out. The obvious answer is sure, a pitcher will be worse. It makes sense that the team that just faced him will have some familiarity. Two questions do come up though. First, how much does the pitcher’s performance degrade in the second matchup? Next, if there is a familiarity factor, how long does it take to go away? After examining the data, a small factor exists and quickly disappears.

Simply, this is one of the noisiest, possibly biased studies I’ve ever worked on. First, a starter usually doesn’t see a team right away since schedules have quite a bit of variation in them. This limits the sample size. Second, the data is clumped at five-day multiples because the starters need rest. I begged for a possible solution on Twitter but no solution was found. Even with the limitations, I forged ahead with some workable results. Read the rest of this entry »