Sometimes conclusions to tough questions just don’t sit right, especially when the answer is “We don’t really know.”. How pitchers control batted balls has never had a simple definitive answer. I’m going to give it another shot.

I have some ideas of what might be a cause, but I want to start with a blank slate. What’s got me diving back in is the following table from a recent article of mine.

While a few percentage points of difference may not seem like much, I expected a lot more regression to the mean with my limited sample size. With just the above information, I felt I needed to re-investigate the subject. I know that some of the regression amounts have previously existed, but I wanted to dive in with some fresh eyes and new batted ball data. Read the rest of this entry »

The Late August Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

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For the second week in a row, I had to voice my amazement that JT Brubaker was cut in the NFBC Main Event. While Brubaker’s results have not been great (4.95 ERA), there are several signs that point to him being closer to a 4.00 ERA pitcher. The stat that sticks out is his 1.9 HR/9. The home runs have him with a 4.98 FIP while his xFIP is a full run lower at 3.98. I wanted to see if I should blindly assume that his home run rate will drop. With the expected drop, will his FIP and ERA regress downward to his xFIP? Also, are there any measurable traits that make a pitcher more home run prone? I ended up with a “maybe” and a solid “no”.

Brubaker isn’t the only pitcher who fits this mold. Bailey Ober has a 2.2 HR/9. His 4.99 ERA is almost identical to his 5.18 while his xFIP is down at 4.12. Another is Yusei Kikuchi (1.6 HR/9, 4.37 FIP, 3.47 xFIP). Adbert Alzolay (2.0 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 3.89 xFIP). The season is over halfway over and fantasy managers are losing patience. Read the rest of this entry »

The Self-Evaluation Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nicklaus Gaut

Field of Dreams

Strategy Section

Self-Evaluation

• For teams in contention
  • Looking at categories to make gains
• For teams not in contention
  • Evaluating what went wrong
  • Following player hot streaks in August/September
  • Trying different strategies

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

• Most innings pitched in 2021

Starting Pitchers who could be limited

• Chris Bassitt
• Julio Urias
• Casey Mize
• Alek Manoah
• Trevor Rogers
  • FIP vs. xFIP

Final Month Fades

• Hitters to Fade
  • Is Nelson Cruz a Hall of Famer?
  • Francisco Lindor vs. Jose Iglesias vs. Amed Rosario
• Pitchers to Fade

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Just a quick note: This article got “lost” and was not published early last month. The information is still applicable.

Early last month, I was surprised by the scrub hitters being rostered for a game at Colorado.

These hitters would never be considered in a normal week but were assumed to morph into All-Stars. Truthfully, I didn’t have a good way to set an ‘add/no add’ cut-off, so here is my best attempt at a simple solution. I tried to come at the answer several ways, but I think the following procedure would be the easiest to use across most fantasy formats. Read the rest of this entry »

The Engagement Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Patrick Davitt

Strategy Section

FAAB / Waiver Wire / Roster Churn

• Distribution of FAAB dollars throughout the season
  • Does current standing matter?
• Does player aquisition strategy alter in the month of August?
• Injury rates 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019
• Sholud we churn our rosters more or less in the final two months of the season?
• How to decide when to cut a player in the final two months
  • Jacob deGrom case study
  • Other specific player examples

Category Movement

• Categories that are more volatile late in the season (more movement) & categories that are less volatile
  • Why ratio categories are highly volatile

Engagement

• Can you win a league if you are towards the bottom in August?
• Do you have a moral / ethical obligation to play hard until the very end in fatnasy baseball?
  • What if you play in many leagues?
• Is it right to divert time spent away from leagues that you cannot win?
• Is there an ethical difference between neglecting to set a valid lineup vs. foregoing waiver wire pickups?
• Is there an obligation to ensure that your fantasy team reaches the minimum inning requirements?
  • How should a league commissioner interviene if teams are not on pace to reach the IP threshold?
• Creating incentives to increase league engagement down the stretch

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The Sabermetrics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Bill James

Personal History

Sabermetrics Section

• How has sabermetrics changed over the years?
• What metric is Bill James most proud of creating?
  • Bring your dog to the park day
• Ariel’s suggestion for Bill James’ Runs Created formula
• Undervalued statistics in today’s game
• The best defensive metrics to use
• Closer by Committee in baseball today
• Beating the Shift
• Similarity Scores

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

• Career batting averages – Ariel vs. Bill

Baseball Across the Decades

• Greatest Players of all time
  • Hitter – Babe Ruth
  • Pitcher – Roger Clemens
• How would Babe Ruth & past baseball players stack up against 2021’s major leaguers?
• Expansion in Baseball

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The Trading Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Fred Zinkie

Strategy Section

Trading

• General Trading Philosophy
• When to look for a trade vs. playing the waiver wire
• Identifying what to trade for, and who to trade on your roster
  • High gradient categories
• How to negotiate trades
  • Should you make offers close to final, or low-ball with room to negotiate?
  • Sending out bad trade offers
  • Taking the time to explain trade offers to others
  • Negotiating with one team alone vs. pitting one team against the other
    • Never divulge trade negotiations directly
• Does standings position matter for trade needs?
  • Decreasing risk / diversifying when you have a lead
  • Increasing risk when far behind
• Fairness of Trades
  • Top teams trading with bottom teams
  • Instituting pay scales throughout the entire standings
  • Reinsurance’s take on fairness in fantasy sports
  • Moving up the league’s trade deadline

Fernando Tatis Jr.

• Were we wrong earlier in the season advocating to trade him?
  • Recap of Tatis trade advice from earlier this season
  • Trust the process, not the results
• Risk comparison to Luis Castillo (underperformance)
• Risk comparison to Adalberto Mondesi (health risk)
• League depth matters

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jerry Blevins, Former Major League Pitcher

Interview

• All-Star Game Uniforms
• Life after baseball
• Jerry Blevins Trivia
• Game planning
  • Pitching to power versus contact batters
• Thoughts on new MLB rule changes
  • 3 Batter Minimum
  • Extra Innings Rule
  • 7 Inning Doubleheaders
• Sticky Substances Ban
• Cheating in Baseball
• Injury counts on the rise
• Progression of baseball analytics throughout Jerry’s career
• Balance of scouting & analytics in baseball
• Pitching against childhood hero, Ken Griffey Jr.
• The Love of Baseball
• Philly Cheasestakes in the visiting clubhouse
• Autograph story – Jeremy Blevins

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Howard Johnson (HoJo), Former Major League All-Star & 2x World Series Champion

Interview

• Life after baseball
• Breakthrough moment of career
• Being on-deck during the infamous Mookie Wilson at-bat of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series
• Ariel’s father asks HoJo a question – Playing different positions
• Analytics in the 1980s
• Analytics during the coaching days
• Davey Johnson / Sparky Anderson as coaches
• HoJo’s closest teamate friends today
• Comeback at age 50 with the Rockland Boulders
• Grandson Tanner Johnson’s accident
  • Please support Tanner by donating to his Go Fund Me account. More details below.
• The 30/30 club
• The Dave Bergman HR game in 1984
• HoJo is 20 in Hebrew!
• Switching uniform number briefly to 44
• Pete Alonso HR Derby winner
• Participating in 2 homerun derbys
• Beating out Barry Bonds & Will Clark for the HR & RBI title in 1991

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