Archive for Projections

The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Greg Jewett

Strategy Section

• Closer Landscape
• Closer Strategy
  • Should you invest in an elite closer?
  • Is it viable to draft two top-10 closers?
• Would you rather?
• Breakout relievers

Closer Situations

• Free Agents
• American League
• National League

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

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Following up on yesterday’s post going over position player playing time changes, we now turn our attention to the pitchers. Unlike hitters, where all playing time is shown in plate appearances, we’re splitting into two tables here. Starters are shown with games started, and relievers are shown with relief innings. When looking at our projections on a player page, you’ll notice that for all relievers, innings and games pitched are the same; that’s just how our projection system works to allocate reliever innings. I’d pay more attention to the innings, since the projected games pitched number will often be higher than the actually-expected number simply to inflate a pitcher’s innings to what we feel is accurate.

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Hi everyone, and welcome to the first iteration of Position Player Playing Time Changes! Since this is the first one of these, I wanted to lay out my process here with Opening Day fast approaching.

Our Depth Charts projections are extremely fluid, and RosterResource guru Jason Martinez makes many tweaks and larger changes every day. Knowing that, we found it prudent to provide a snapshot of the recent changes, looking at the last week. All we’re doing is pulling projected plate appearances for March 3, and comparing those to March 10.

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The Mixed LABR Auction Recap episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

TGFBI

• What is TGFBI?
• How did TGFBI get started?
• First few rounds of TGFBI 2025

Mixed LABR Auction

• General Auction Strategy
• Incoming plan
• Observations
  • Positional Observations
  • Categorical Observations
  • Auction Temperature
• What we liked / disaliked about our auction
• Live vs. online auctions
• Auction Board:
  • https://www.rtsports.com/labr-mixed-auction

Injury Update

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The Mock Draft episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Joe Pisapia

Strategy Section

• What are you looking to accomplish in drafts?
• KDS Selection
• Lessons learned so far

Mock Draft

• 14 Team – Mixed 5×5 – 2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, CI, MI, U, 9P

By Round

By Team

• Tanner Scott vs. Kirby Yates
  • Board bet !

Mock Draft Recap

• Favorite & least favorite picks

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The Starting Pitcher episode – Part II – of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

ATC Undervalued Players

• Starting Pitchers
  • Framber Valdez
    • Board bet !
  • Tyler Glasnow
  • Logan Webb
  • Zach Eflin
  • Tanner Bibee
  • Justin Steele
  • Bryan Woo
  • Drew Rasmussen
  • Reynaldo López
  • Nestor Cortes
  • Ranger Suárez
  • Max Scherzer

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Overvalued Pitchers

• Jacob deGrom
• Corbin Burnes

Injury Update

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The Starting Pitcher episode – Part I – of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

FSWA Nomination

Strategy Section

• Valuing Pitcher Changes
  • Working on a new pitch
  • Pitch mix
  • Arm angle
  • Relief pitcher turned starter
• Spring training
  • What to look for?
  • Who to look for?
• Starting pitcher strategy
  • Do you emphaisze drafting pitchers with high innings pitched per start?
  • What to do with the Los Angeles Dodgers?
  • Which should you emphasize earlier on in drafts – strikeouts or ratios?

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The Outfield & THE BAT episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

THE BAT Projections

• Projections accuracy contest on FantasyPros
  • What is the best way to test projections accuracy?
• What are the key components of a projection system?
• What is the difference between THE BAT & THE BAT X?
• THE BAT methodolgy
  • Details on weighting of years
  • Runs & RBI
  • Stolen bases
  • Accounting for park factors for new stadium dimensions

Strategy Section

• Positional Eligibilty
  • Which is more valuable for 2025 – 2B, 3B or OF?
  • The value of multi-position eligible players
• Outfield strategy
  • Player pool
  • Should you draft an elite outfielder?
  • Are there certain statistics that you should acquire from your outfielders?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Outfielders
  • Anthony Santander
  • Taylor Ward
  • Nick Castellanos
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Lane Thomas
  • George Springer
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Matt Wallner
    • Board bet !

Injury Update

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The smiles appear before the response.

Ask a few Orioles hitters for their immediate reactions to news that the club is moving in the left field wall, and their approval can be seen on their faces.

The above quote came from the Orioles caravan and got me thinking about how projections incorporate three new park changes.

I’ve seen the park changes referenced in articles and pods for reasons to fade or target certain players. I lean on projections and assume that they incorporate dimensions into account when they create their projections. If the changes are already accounted for, I don’t want to overrate affected players. After looking over various projections, most seem to take the changes into account, but some haven’t yet. Read the rest of this entry »

Real-life general managers face economic pressures of all kinds. It must be stressful to be in charge of it all; managing revenue, navigating relationships with the owner(s), the coaches, the players, the fans, deciding whether a player is “worth” the money he’ll likely win in an arbitration hearing, trying to figure out if you can fit in some greens to your diet. Ottoneu managers can face economic pressures too. For some reason, we actually enjoy fabricating the economic stressors that those real-world GM’s face. Why? Well, it’s fun to pretend. But also because we think we might actually be able to do the job ourselves. Be careful what you wish for, you may have to justify cutting a player like Freddie Freeman from your team because you thought it would be a good “economic” decision. Get your speaking notes ready for FanFest, prepare yourself for the press conference, ditch the greens, grab whatever’s still sitting under the heat lamp at the closest “Grab N’ Go!” It’s time to justify the offseason decisions you “had” to make.
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