At last, we have reached our final 2015 Pod Projection review! All pitcher projections were based on the methodology laid out in my just released eBook, Projecting X 2.0. Yes, it’s the follow up to the original Projecting X, and is chock full of new research, new metrics, new ideas, and new methods for projecting baseball player performance.
It’s time for another Pod Projection review and today it’s new top 10 starter Jacob deGrom. After a dominating performance during his 2014 rookie campaign that essentially came out of nowhere, we all wondered how much regression he would experience in 2015. Instead, he laughed at the notion of regression and took his performance to further heights, earning more than $24 and finishing as the ninth most valuable starter. Refresh your memory by reviewing my initial Pod Projection post.
Today I continue reviewing my preseason posts and this time I will bravely recap how my Pod Projection fared against the Steamer projection for Zack Greinke. As we are all well aware, Greinke just so happened to lead all Major League starters in ERA, en route to a second place finish in the Cy Young voting. Sadly, Greinke wiggled his way into a Steamer and I post because Steamer was significantly more optimistic about his performance than Pod was. I guess we know how this is going to go…
We finally move along to our first starting pitcher Pod Projection recap of the offseason. I will start with final 10 starts of the 2014 season breakout Carlos Carrasco, who finally made good on all the hype I sounded on him. Refresh your memory of my original projection post.
Naturally after those scintillating set of starts to end the season, Carrasco shot up preseason ranking lists heading into 2015. And he didn’t disappoint, finishing 15th among starters in value, earning about $16.
For the previous Steamer and I reviews, I separated the two players into their own recaps, as there was simply too much to discuss for one post. However, for the motley pair of Shane Greene and Jesse Hahn, this is unfortunately not going to be a problem. You see, both of them saw their seasons cut short by injury and one of them was so bad that including his name as part of the title of an article will do little to motivate potential readers from clicking. So, combined they are.
The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.
Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!
For our third Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for George Springer in his sophomore season. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.
Heading into 2014, Springer ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball and didn’t disappoint upon his arrival to Houston. He did exactly what his minor league record suggested he might — strike out a lot, supplement those swings and misses with a strong walk rate, and display immense power. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by a quadriceps injury, but naturally, expectations were high for 2015.
The Steamer and I reviews continue this week, which pits a player’s preseason Pod Projection against his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll review 2014 breakout Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately saw his plate appearance total cut in half due to various injuries. I was far more bullish on his prospects than Steamer was.
For our second Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for rookie Yasmany Tomas. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.
As a Cuban rookie with no minor league data to work with and limited statistics to analyze from his work in Cuba, Tomas was a challenge to forecast. Essentially, everyone was really just taking an educated guess and it was more like a 3rd grade education than grad school level.
It’s second base week on RotoGraphs and that gives me the opportunity to perform the first review of my 2015 Pod Projection breakdowns. Anthony Rendon enjoyed a breakout year in both real and fantasy baseball in 2014 and given his previous top prospect pedigree, was then highly valued heading into this season. At the time of my Pod Projection, Rendon was being drafted 13th overall in NFBC leagues. Unfortunately, a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for a week or two to begin the season dragged on and on. He didn’t make his 2015 debut until early June and then missed another month with a quad strain. Ultimately, he finished ranked 35th in value…among just the second basemen!
