Reviewing 2015 Pod Projections: Carlos Carrasco

We finally move along to our first starting pitcher Pod Projection recap of the offseason. I will start with final 10 starts of the 2014 season breakout Carlos Carrasco, who finally made good on all the hype I sounded on him. Refresh your memory of my original projection post.

Naturally after those scintillating set of starts to end the season, Carrasco shot up preseason ranking lists heading into 2015. And he didn’t disappoint, finishing 15th among starters in value, earning about $16.

IP: 180 projected vs 183.2 actual

Innings pitched are typically pretty easy to project for established veterans. Not so much for the youngsters, or at least the guys without a full season in the rotation under their belts. Carrasco falls into that second group, as he isn’t exactly young (though certainly not old, and on the good side of 30). After throwing just 134.0 innings in 2014, how many would he be allowed to throw in 2015? I remained rather conservative, which proved to be the right call.

K%: 22.7% projected vs 29.6%

I like to say I was the first on the Carrasco bandwagon several years ago, so I certainly believed in the quality of his stuff. But you absolutely had to project some regression from last year’s strikeout rate, especially considering a lot of those innings came in relief. Pitchers don’t generally post higher strikeout rates as a starter than as a reliever!

But instead of declining like a normal human pitcher would do, Carrasco pushed his strikeout rate to nearly 30%. He added more whiffs to his two-seamer, which he threw more often at the expense of his four-seamer, and more whiffs to his curve ball. Amazingly, he threw two pitches (the slider and curve) that generated a SwStk% above 25% and a third (the changeup) that nearly hit the 20% plateau. As such, he’s one of the best darkhorse candidates to lead the American League in ERA.

BB%: 6.7% projected vs 5.9% actual

I acknowledged that his xBB% validated the significant improvement in control that he displayed in 2014. However, since it was much better than anything he had previously shown, then you guessed it, regression had to be assumed. I was right! Ha, well, directionally, but was a little too aggressive with my regression expectation. Interestingly, Carrasco actually threw an identical rate of strikes this year as last year.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 51% / 19.5% / 29.5% projected vs 51% / 19% / 30% actual

Almost hit the nail perfectly on the head! My projection was essentially his career average and he didn’t deviate it at all. In fact, if you check his career average now, it is nearly identical to his 2015 season. Talk about consistency! Sure makes my life easier when projecting his batted ball type distribution in 2016.

HR/FB%: 10.0% projected vs 13.2% actual

Last year, he escaped with a suppressed 7.1% HR/FB rate, which is typically unsustainable and not a mark I would project for a repeat. So I went with a mark around the league average, though below Carrasco’s career average. Unfortunately, he suffered from some rotten luck, which was actually completely driven by homeritis in his home ballpark, where he allowed a crazy 17.6% HR/FB rate. Odd, considering the park sports a near neutral 101 HR park factor. Figure better luck in 2016.

BABIP: .300 projected vs .304 actual

Carrasco’s .274 BABIP was one major reason for his turnaround in 2014. But it wasn’t going to last. The Indians were expected to trot out a poor defense, albeit improved, while Carrasco is a ground ball pitcher who induces pop-ups at a low rate. It all adds up to a BABIP that should be just above the league average, which is what my .300 projection represented. His BABIP did indeed rise, even further than I forecasted, but it could have been even worse. He posted an inflated .339 mark in the first half, but better defense was on the way in the form of Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela. Perhaps a full season of Lindor will get that BABIP down to .300, and with some better fortune, even .295.

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Below is a summary of how Carrasco was projected by all systems, along with his actual totals.

Of course, the Fans were the most optimistic by both ERA and WHIP. Steamer and ZiPS were closest by ERA though, likely due to a lower projected LOB%. ZiPS didn’t have a projection for that metric, but the underlying peripheral projections were similar enough, it was either the LOB% or a higher HR/9 rate that explains the ERA gap.

Given his mediocre ERA, there’s possibly some profit potential next year. You might very well be getting an ace at second tier starter prices.