Archive for Pitcher Spotlight

It’s time we talked about the pitcher that just doesn’t make sense.

Trevor Williams is an anomaly. We like to focus on peripheral numbers to get a better sense of how a pitcher is performing and Williams’ under-the-hood numbers since July 2018 paint a mediocre arm:

Yet across seventeen starts since July 11th, Williams is flaunting two ridiculous numbers:

1.60 ERA & 1.08 WHIP

How.

Williams’ repertoire consists of a seemingly mediocre 91 mph fastball, a changeup that returns a 7% swinging-strike rate, and a slider with a career middling .260 BAA. These are pedestrian numbers for a three-pitch mix, yet 100+ frames have returned only 18 earned runs.

It doesn’t make a lick of sense and I love when something doesn’t make sense. It means there’s something interesting to talk about.

So let’s talk about it.

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Earlier this month, I highlighted a couple of pitchers who improved their results by changing their pitch mix with a new team. With the positive results, I decided to apply the logic to this upcoming class of free agents. The reason I wanted to focus on free agents because I expect a pitcher’s current teams to keep the pitcher doing what he has always done. After going over 15 pitchers, four stood out with real upside.

I’m just going to focus on the each pitcher’s 2018 pitch mix. I can’t assume they’ll develop a new pitch, so I need to work with what they showed last year. The two most common ways for a pitcher to improve is to quit throwing a horrible pitch or drop their fastball usage. These changes don’t guarantee an improvement. For now, the focus is on pitchers with upside beyond their projection.

I collected the free-agent pitchers from MLBTradeRumors and took the youngest pitchers for this investigation. I didn’t include any pitcher who has any kind of option on their contract. I’ll go back and examine them once it’s known for sure who they are or aren’t a free agent.

After going through the pitchers, I found they fit into three main groups depending on if changing their mix could help. This list is in no way a ranking of pitcher talent but I’m sure someone will bring it up in the comments. These are just pitchers who I believe can improve by adjusting their current pitch mix.

Major Improvement Candidates

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I can’t believe I’m going to write this.

Wade Miley has a 2.12 ERA this season.

It’s just a 63.2 inning sample across twelve starts, but that’s still over a third of a season’s work with sparkling results, including a 1.18 WHIP.

Will this stick? In all likelihood, no. His 4.59 SIERA is nearly 2.5 points higher than the marvelous ERA, inflated by a minute 6.1% HR/FB rate, .260 BABIP, and 80% LOB rate. These numbers are all due to fall as the sample rises.

But this isn’t to say that Miley has had a remarkable season simply by being in the good graces of Lady Luck. Miley has completely revamped his approach:

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Those who know me understand that I enjoy watching pitchers experiment and dive into it when it happens. Often they are irrelevant, failing to prevent the tires from spinning in the mud. There are exceptions, as always, and I find it interesting to point out possible exceptions before they are illuminated to the masses.

So today I want to talk about a pitcher that I wouldn’t actually suggest chasing in 12-teamer. Reynaldo Lopez’s 4.51 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a 17.3% K rate are enough to turn anyone away while his FIP and SIERA are even worse, each with marks over 5.00. Even cherry picking his last six games returns a 4.28 ERA. Things aren’t great for Reynaldo Lopez.

Something peculiar did happen in his last start, though. It was a strong 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks effort against the Yankees and it may have been a result of some tweaking in Lopez’s repertoire. I want to tell you about it.

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When I see a pitcher consistently struggle, I can get a bit antsy. Pitchers often stick to one gameplan, believing that their current approach, despite its constant failures, is the only path that can lead them to success. It frustrates me when I see a pitcher refuse to go back to the drawing board and experiment for at least one game to see if something different could work.

Sam Gaviglio is having a rough season. Through 83.1 frames of sixteen starts and two relief appearances, Gavilgio holds a disfigured 4.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP without much indicating that he deserves a whole lot better…except for last Saturday.

Watching Gaviglio’s outing against the Rays, I couldn’t help but get a little excited. Right in front of me was a man trying something new in the midst of peril and struggle. He recognized his current course wasn’t getting the job done and started experimenting. He was in his own world on the hill searching for something that worked.

I think he found something.

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There was an MLB debut last night and we should talk about it. After boasting a 2.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in Double-A this season, Jacob Nix played his first career major league game, returning a marvelous 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks line for the San Diego Padres. Does this mean he should be added in your NL-Only league or maybe even that office 12-teamer? Or was this just a debut that went well and should be ignored?

I’m going to make this easy for everyone. Nix does not have a Top 20 ceiling. He also isn’t the worst starter to consider in 12-teamers. There are two major strengths to Nix’s approach that could propel him to fantasy relevancy, but there is a significant flaw that makes me question his floor. That’s what I’m going to cover here and let’s start it off with one of his strengths: his fastball command.

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On the most exciting parts of spring is the chaos that comes with early success. Hype trains are lining up at the station and you stand in the center wondering which tickets to buy, where your train is headed, and if you’re too late to get on board. Yonny Chirinos left the station in early April, crashing for owners by the end of it as he was sent to the DL with a forearm strain, turning into a three-month departure from the majors pitching in Triple-A and nursing a sore shoulder.

But it’s the end of July and Chirinos has returned, making quite the entrance through a 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks performance against the Yankees. This is big, guys. Big.

I love writing these Pitcher Spotlight articles because I get to talk about best-case scenarios. I get to defend the forgotten arms and tell you how they could be productive when few consider them on the wire. Chirinos has been sitting on your wire for three months and it’s finally time to reconsider him for your squad – even in that 12-team league.

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I like Andrew Heaney. I think you should too but let’s start with me.

I like Heaney’s control. Save for his five-game 2017 season, Heaney’s 7.3% walk rate this year is the highest of any MLB season, fueled by a sinker hitting the zone over 58% of the time and a changeup he trusts for a 47% zone rate.

I’m getting ahead of myself. I wouldn’t be writing this if I didn’t feel there was a question about Heaney’s ability to perform, which wasn’t the case early in the year. Through the first eight starts of the year, there was a strong consensus that Heaney could excel for a considerable amount of time, sporting a 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 27% K rate, and a fantastic 12% whiff rate to support the elevated strikeout numbers.

However, Heaney ran into a pair of 5 ER games and suddenly it seemed doomed. It launched a stretch of 5.09 ERA with just a 16.7% K rate and the fun was coming to an end. Sure, the WHIP was still acceptable and walk rate was under 5%, but we were celebrating Heaney for the good ratios and strikeouts and it just wasn’t happening.

I started this article talking about Heaney’s control. It’s easily one of his best attributes and entering the year, we considered it as one of the only strong assets. For the most part, save for the “all around” types that are so hard to depend on, either we classify a starter’s value in good command/control arms or high strikeout ability. Heaney has always had the control, but what I’m believing in suddenly is the strikeout rate.

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Note: Scott Strandberg also wrote about Jordan Zimmermann yesterday and you should read that piece too.

Conversations about Jordan Zimmermann rarely present the Detroit Tigers starter in a good light. Maybe his horrid contract is referenced or how his fastball registered a -27.3 pVal in 2017 (yes, it was that bad) or maybe how far he’s fallen since his days with Nationals. Regardless of the focus, if you’re talking Zimermmann, it’s often sprinkled with disappointment.

We’re going to have a different conversation today. No, it’s not that Zimmermann is definitively a dependable arm for the rest of the year, that would be foolish. You know the drill with these articles, I have seen something interesting and I want to make the case that maybe, just maybe, a pitcher will be better than expected in the next month or two.

Let’s establish our baseline. Here’s what Jordan Zimmermann has done over his last two seasons leading up to 2018:

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For the second week in a row, I’m going to bring up Chad Kuhl. After last week’s entertaining disappointment against the Diamondbacks, Kuhl was removed after four frames against the Mets on Tuesday with forearm discomfort.

I am not bringing up Kuhl in an act of self-depreciation, despite how often I rely on it. Rather, his potential longterm removal from the Pirates rotation means that Nick Kingham could soon hold a firm grip on the #5 spot in Pittsburgh.

I think you see where this is going. A pitcher that is currently owned in under 10% of fantasy leagues, an arm that with consistent playing time could return top-5o starting pitcher production, a rookie who holds a sub 1.00 WHIP, 24% strikeout rate, and 12% whiff rate may suddenly be getting a whole lot of playing time.

Let’s take a dive into what Kingham does on the field and how it could translate into a potential league-winning pickup.

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