Archive for Pitcher Spotlight

I’m taking a chance today, posting this piece just an hour before Chad Kuhl takes the hill against the Brewers. Yesterday’s game was postponed, forcing me to take a leap of faith today, but I know what I see and I’m going to talk about it anyway.

We’ve been waiting for Kuhl to have consistent fantasy relevancy since his call-up in 2016, but it’s been a laborious two years. Back-to-back seasons with a WHIP over 1.30 and an ERA well north of 4.00 have done little to inspire hope, as his strikeout rate has hovered 20%.

However, Kuhl’s last four starts have been successful and I could be more than just a blip on the radar. I actually think it’s going to stick.

That’s a table comparing Kuhl’s first ten starts of 2018 to his last four, including a bit of a pitch mix adjustment as Kuhl is suddenly throwing his slide piece over 30% of the time as he pulls back from his fastball.

Why is this important? Because Kuhl’s slider is incredible and his fastball is terrible.

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For those that are familiar with my work may know that Matt Strahm is a bit of an inside joke. Entering 2017, I labeled him as a dark horse sleeper, possibly in position to steal the #5 spot in the Royals rotation and transform from a shadow on the wire into surprising fantasy relevancy.

That didn’t go so well – the Royals signed Jason Hammel, Strahm struggled as a reliever, got knee surgery, and was shipped off to San Diego in the Trevor Cahill deal. My vision was put on the backburner.

But it’s June 15th, 2018, where the Padres have had to deal with injuries to Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchesi, and a demotion of Luis Perdomo after struggling like car tires in a swamp. The door has opened for Strahm to get a spotlight as a starter – albeit in “bullpen games” – and it’s time to consider what that could be. We may have to wait until the second half (or maybe 2019!) to see Strahm stretched out and penciled into the rotation, but I want to make sure he is on your radar. I want to show you why you’ll probably consider picking up Matt Strahm this season.

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Did you expect any sort of spotlight on Clay Buchholz this season? I certainly didn’t think he would be worth anyone’s time, with his last healthy season producing a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, watching his strikeout rate dive to an abysmal 16% mark and hinting at a 10% walk rate. But here we are, four starts into his 2018 season and Buchholz is getting our attention. Seriously, he’s been quite remarkable thus far (I’m ignoring 2017 stats wise as his poor health reduced his season to just two starts in 7.1 innings):

I was like many of you at first, waving this away with a slight scoff, quickly quoting small sample size and the inconsistent nature of Buchholz, and suggesting that nothing has changed. Maybe even adding a quick “this is the same old Buchholz” quip.

But it isn’t. This could be nothing, yet another byproduct of a minuscule 24 frames, but there’s a chance that it sticks across the weeks and months of the year.

That thing is Clay Buchholz’s cutter.

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Shane Bieber made his MLB debut Thursday evening, throwing 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks against the Minnesota Twins and it’s hard not to get wrapped up in the exctiement. Hype is part of the fun of fantasy baseball and Bieber’s was tantalizing with just 15 walks allowed in all 262.2 IP thrown in the minors. While his role moving forward is in question – the Indians don’t need a fifth starter until June 12th and it could easily be Adam Plutko – we were given a glimpse at a pitcher that will make plenty more starts in the future and I want to talk about it.

And I’m going to upfront about this one. No gimmicks, no teases, no drama for the sake of my own indulgences.

I didn’t like what I saw.

That may be a bit harsh and I’ll show in this article each nook and cranny of Bieber’s debut that hinted at something better, but there will be more about what makes me concerned from a fantasy perspective than excited for the future.

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I did not have high expectations for Alex Wood heading into this season. His early 2017 success was fueled by an uptick in velocity that dwindled through the year, he hadn’t eclipsed 153 innings since 2015, and the Dodgers are, ahem, interesting with their starting rotations. I didn’t expect the shiny new-out-of-the-box 2017 edition Alex Wood to be the real Alex Wood.

And as expected, Wood’s velocity has been dramatically low in 2018, boasting a 90mph sinker after last season’s 92mph average (and averaging 93mph in the opening months), but you wouldn’t have known it if you compared his numbers:

I love this. The end result is the same, though Wood’s lower velocity should tell you that he can’t be holding the same approach for the same results. It’s not out of the question, but seeing his dip in heat has to make you believe there is something else going on under the hood.

And there is.
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It would be very easy for me to be a fan of Tyler Skaggs. He’s more than a sparkling 2.88 ERA or 25% strikeout rate, he’s someone who boosted his groundball clip comfortably over 50%, buffed his swinging-strike rate 2.5 points to 10.7%b and not even DIPS metrics such as his 3.34 FIP or 3.58 SIERA suggest a mask hiding an ugly truth. It shouts a popular sentiment in the fantasy world:

Tyler Skaggs has figured it out.

I’m here today to tell you that this is a myth.

Those numbers, they’re all great. Simple, elegant descriptions of a player to help us quickly grasp their performance. But you know me. With these articles, I like to answer how a pitcher is getting their results, showcasing their recipe for success. Thing is, even though Skaggs has “figured it out,” I’m not exactly sure what he has figured out.

So let’s explore the popular solutions. Detailing the myths and legends, seeking the true catalyst that has turned Skaggs from his poor 4.55 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 21% K rate from last season to this year’s bliss.

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I love when pitchers add velocity. “Did you hear? Alex Wood is now pumping 94mph!” analysts whisper on Twitter. Crowds gather, eyes piercing a pitcher throwing a fastball that pounds a catcher’s mitt behind a failed swing. The excitement is captivating and calls for everyone’s attention as hype trains leave stations in droves.

This is the fun in fantasy baseball and Zach Eflin is the latest pitcher to get the spotlight. After failed 2016 and 2017 seasons that were so ghastly I feel guilty sharing them with you (5.54 ERA and 6.16 ERA, respectively), Eflin has had a pair of successful starts to launch his 2018 campaign, holding an impressive 0.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 27.7% K rate, and 6.4% BB rate in the minuscule 12.2 IP sample. The real story, though, is how he’s bumped his four-seamer’s velocity from the previous 93.5mph mark to 95.5mph this season:

Alright, Zach Eflin has increased his fastball velocity by two ticks. So what?

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In these Pitcher Spotlight articles, there are specific types of pitchers I like to dive into. Some are new to many and need an introduction, some are struggling as I try to find a solution, while others are exhibiting trends in a small sample that could be stickier than we think moving forward.

Trevor Cahill falls into the latter category. There is plenty that can go wrong over the next few months to prevent Cahill from producing at a high level, though he’s showing signs of being a legitimate Top 50 starter and that’s interesting. It’s the fun stuff.

The story of Cahill is unorthodox. After seasons of mediocre as I elected to give him a nickname akin to his Irish doppelganger Trevor O’Cahill, the spring of 2017 gave us a jolt. A sudden performance spike that magically forced Jeff Sullivan to call him “good,” producing excellent numbers across a seven-game stretch:

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Wednesday night featured a Clayton Kershaw that we didn’t know. An imposter, a fraud who gave us a six-walk outing so rare that we hadn’t seen one from the #1 Starting Pitcher since 2012. So long ago that it was a time where Matt Harrison had fantasy relevance. So ridiculous that we have to have a talk.

There is something wrong with Clayton Kershaw.

It’s not a novel idea. Kershaw’s 3.48 ERA was uncharacteristic during his September return from the DL last season – a seven-game stretch concluding with six straight games allowing a longball. And with the likes of Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale all knocking on his door to claim the title of “Best Pitcher On The Planet” there was bound to be plenty more scrutiny.

But while the arguments before eventually ended with “yeah, but it’s Kershaw, he hasn’t shown any real sides of fading and he’s done it for so long,” we finally have an explanation for his struggles. No, it’s not his back problems (while it may be the very root, it’s too simple of an answer and is far from effective rhetoric), it’s his fastball. More specifically, his fastball command.
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The first few weeks of the season often produce entertaining statistical extremes. Wild ERAs, over-the-top “on pace” numbers, and inflated ratios that give us a sensible chuckle as we collectively understand the lack of truth they hold.

Often among these novelties are the early league-wide leaderboards. I elected to pull up the 2018 strikeout leaders and here is what you’ll see:
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