Archive for Outfielders

Billy Hamilton’s Spiritual Contract, Complete with Upside

Baseball, in all its glorious history, bears as its fruit some remarkable encounters between legends of the game. Allow me to recount a charming, wholly undocumented, 100%-real encounter between some of baseball’s greats:

…And then Billy Hamilton, to whom his colleagues and comrades affectionately referred as “Billy Hams,” appealed to the Baseball Gods:

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Does Yasiel Puig Reemerge as a ManBear again?

You all remember the clever hashtag #ManBearPuig that parodied the brilliant South Park episode ManBearPig, right? Of course you do, because you use Twitter and you love South Park. Sadly, Yasiel Puig is quickly shedding his ManBearness. After posting a scintillating .398 wOBA during his 2013 debut, his performance has declined for two straight seasons, with the fall off this year a precipitous one. Will ManBearPuig make his triumphant return?

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The Sustainable J.D. Martinez

Coming into 2015, baseball fans everywhere had the same question on their collective minds: “Is J.D. Martinez sustainable?” The question was more than fair, as there were plenty of indicators that the now-28-year-old’s 2014 breakout could be a fluke.

It was all too easy to point at Martinez’s batting average on balls in play (.389 in 2014) and write off a good portion of his .315/.358/.553 slash. His power spike — from a .120 isolated power in 2013 all the way up to a .238 ISO the next year — was impossible to ignore, but naysayers still had avenues through which to dismiss it.

Martinez may have hit 23 homers in 480 plate appearances in 2014 — with another ten in just 71 PA in Triple-A before his promotion — but had never hit more than 19 in any season, at any level. Moreover, he hit just 19 total homers in the 864 PA he compiled in 2012-2013. Now all of a sudden, he hits 33 of them in one year? This was another area that was relatively simple to disregard as flukish.

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Carlos Gomez is No Longer Elite

Carlos Gomez stunk in 2015. That statement is relative, of course — Gomez is a good ballplayer, and 2.6 wins above replacement (WAR) in 115 games ain’t so shabby — but for a consensus top-10 fantasy pick in 2015, he was a bust.

For anyone who hasn’t followed the trajectory of Gomez’s career over the years, it has been a tumultuous one. A top-100 prospect who bounced from team to team early on, Gomez hit his stride in a half-season sample for the Brewers in 2011 during which his isolated power (ISO) spiked 60 points alongside season-long paces (600 plate appearances) of 19 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Fantasy owners who noticed the improvement and expressed skepticism toward a depressed batting average on balls in play (BABIP) were rewarded handsomely in 2012. Gomez paid even more dividends in 2013 as he demonstrated the legitimacy of his gains.

We’ve reached a strange point in his trajectory, however. Gomez, having turned 30 three days ago (happy birthday, Carlos!!!!) and coming off his worst offensive season in half a decade, may be declining or, at the very least, have fallen from his elite offensive perch for good. Gomez’s production in terms of weighted runs created (wRC+) depicts a sharp and sustained increase in production followed by a two-year plateau and then a profound leap off said plateau in 2015.

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Will Rusney Castillo’s Tools Translate to Production?

Maybe. End of article.

In late August of 2014, the Red Sox signed Rusney Castillo to a seven year contract and the considerable hype was ignited. Unfortunately, Castillo battled injuries, was shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the big league club several times and was disappointing at the plate at both the minor and Major League levels. But Castillo seemingly has all the tools. Will they translate into actual performance?

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Stick With Hicks: Examining Aaron Hicks’ Future Stock

As a random side note, Paul Sporer reached out to me when he saw that I was going to write about Aaron Hicks to make sure we weren’t going to step on each others’ toes. In the spirit of preserving his and my work, here’s a link to what he wrote — which I have not/will not read until after this is published.

As a Twins reporter and low-end minor league junkie, I’ve been a Hicks advocate since his 2012 season at Double-A New Britain. Hicks hit .286/.384/.460, which to me is a triple-slash with some inherent aesthetic beauty. Hicks had 116 strikeouts that year — high, to be sure — but backed it with 79 walks. I had read reports on him that said he was ultra-disciplined to the point of almost being too passive at the plate. Could that even be possible?

I was about to find out. Read the rest of this entry »


Are These Guys Good?

Three young outfielders who had vastly different seasons in 2015: one was excellent, but only for 350 PA, another has had an MLB-caliber glove forever but finally showed something with the bat, and the other failed to meet high expectations set by his 2014 leading to a demotion. Even with the positive aspects from two of the three guys, we’re still left wondering one question about all three: are these guys good? We’ll look at a couple key elements of their game and then give a recommendation.

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The Blue Jays Other Guys

The Blue Jays played a different game than everybody else last season. While most contenders focused on elite relievers and athleticism, Toronto resurrected the PED-era quality offense. The team scored 891 runs. That’s not historically significant, but they did outscore the second place Yankees by 127 runs.  Yep, the Jays scored 17 percent more than the next best team.

The offense was carried by MVP Josh Donaldson and a couple familiar faces. Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion will draw early draft attention next season. However, a couple solid contributors may slip under the radar, and they’ll benefit from their elite counterparts.

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Deep League Outfield Platoon Bats

In deeper formats, it can become difficult to find quality fourth and fifth outfielders because of how many players at the position are used in the league. Fortunately, outfield provides the most opportunities to mix and match in leagues, especially in daily games or in leagues that allow daily lineup changes. Much like the teams themselves, taking advantage of players with extreme platoon splits can provide the line of an expensive outfield for cheap, as long as you’re willing to put in the managerial work. Here are some platoon options I plan to use to help me fill out my deeper rosters next season.

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Soler Power

So it didn’t exactly go as planned for Jorge Soler in 2015. Rather than act as an integral part of an exciting young and powerful Cubs offense, Soler fizzled. Rather than make good on his sleeper/breakout/undervalued promise, he finished a pathetic 84th in value among just outfielders. That means he was worthless in 12-team leagues that start five outfielders! I did not see that coming.

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