As a random side note, Paul Sporer reached out to me when he saw that I was going to write about Aaron Hicks to make sure we weren’t going to step on each others’ toes. In the spirit of preserving his and my work, here’s a link to what he wrote — which I have not/will not read until after this is published.

As a Twins reporter and low-end minor league junkie, I’ve been a Hicks advocate since his 2012 season at Double-A New Britain. Hicks hit .286/.384/.460, which to me is a triple-slash with some inherent aesthetic beauty. Hicks had 116 strikeouts that year — high, to be sure — but backed it with 79 walks. I had read reports on him that said he was ultra-disciplined to the point of almost being too passive at the plate. Could that even be possible?

I was about to find out. Read the rest of this entry »

Three young outfielders who had vastly different seasons in 2015: one was excellent, but only for 350 PA, another has had an MLB-caliber glove forever but finally showed something with the bat, and the other failed to meet high expectations set by his 2014 leading to a demotion. Even with the positive aspects from two of the three guys, we’re still left wondering one question about all three: are these guys good? We’ll look at a couple key elements of their game and then give a recommendation.

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The Blue Jays played a different game than everybody else last season. While most contenders focused on elite relievers and athleticism, Toronto resurrected the PED-era quality offense. The team scored 891 runs. That’s not historically significant, but they did outscore the second place Yankees by 127 runs.  Yep, the Jays scored 17 percent more than the next best team.

The offense was carried by MVP Josh Donaldson and a couple familiar faces. Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion will draw early draft attention next season. However, a couple solid contributors may slip under the radar, and they’ll benefit from their elite counterparts.

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In deeper formats, it can become difficult to find quality fourth and fifth outfielders because of how many players at the position are used in the league. Fortunately, outfield provides the most opportunities to mix and match in leagues, especially in daily games or in leagues that allow daily lineup changes. Much like the teams themselves, taking advantage of players with extreme platoon splits can provide the line of an expensive outfield for cheap, as long as you’re willing to put in the managerial work. Here are some platoon options I plan to use to help me fill out my deeper rosters next season.

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So it didn’t exactly go as planned for Jorge Soler in 2015. Rather than act as an integral part of an exciting young and powerful Cubs offense, Soler fizzled. Rather than make good on his sleeper/breakout/undervalued promise, he finished a pathetic 84th in value among just outfielders. That means he was worthless in 12-team leagues that start five outfielders! I did not see that coming.

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The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.

Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!

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Once upon a time, I was a Phillies fan. I grew up in a mostly empty Veteran’s Stadium watching Doug Glanville and Wendell Magee and Rico Brogna. Occasionally, my past links to Philadelphia help my fantasy rosters. That happened this year with Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr.

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So there’s this table I’m going to show you. Actually, you can already see it. I know you can. But humor me and pretend that only the next word appears after you read this one, and that the table simply hasn’t manifested yet. This table holds within it Christian Yelich’s career statistics, parsed by year. It’s unlike a normal table because I prorated all of the counting stats to 600 plate appearances. The rest, however, are rate statistics, or component metrics presented as rate statistics. Basically, everything is comparable on a playing time basis. What it will all tell you is what ended up being a discarded title for this post:

Christian Yelich is a remarkably consistent hitter.

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The Minnesota Twins dealt Aaron Hicks after parts of three uninspired seasons and I’m sure many of you were like me and thought this could be a case similar to Carlos Gomez. Gomez came up as a Mets prospect. He was raw, speedy super-athlete who showed the defense for center in the minors, but he was projected to add power as he filled out. The Mets rushed him to the majors at age-21 after just three-plus seasons in the minors and he’s been a major leaguer ever since.

He was the key piece in the Johan Santana deal for Minnesota and that likely encouraged them to continue the rushed development of Gomez as they immediately inserted him into the starting centerfield role at 22 years old. After a rotten 74 wRC+ in 614 PA, his playing time was drastically cut the following season.

Unfortunately, he played even worse (64 wRC+ in 349 PA). He was traded again, this time to Milwaukee in a straight up deal for J.J. Hardy. He labored through two half-seasons upon arrival, marred by three DL stints, and didn’t look much different than the Minnesota version with a 79 wRC+ in 576 PA. Hicks’ backstory has some key differences.

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Thirty-year old Chris Coghlan just had his best season of his career. He’s only surpassed 500 plate appearances twice in his seven-year career, and as a guy without a standout tool and some established platoon issues, he obviously owns a substantial ‘bust rate.’ As in, he could be unusable next year, even though he was worth $6 in mixed leagues this past season.

And so, even though we liked some boring veterans at third base, it’s time to take inspiration in another direction — where’s the line, when you should bypass the veteran for the unproven prospect? Is it right around a guy like Chris Coghlan?

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