The Blue Jays Other Guys

The Blue Jays played a different game than everybody else last season. While most contenders focused on elite relievers and athleticism, Toronto resurrected the PED-era quality offense. The team scored 891 runs. That’s not historically significant, but they did outscore the second place Yankees by 127 runs.  Yep, the Jays scored 17 percent more than the next best team.

The offense was carried by MVP Josh Donaldson and a couple familiar faces. Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion will draw early draft attention next season. However, a couple solid contributors may slip under the radar, and they’ll benefit from their elite counterparts.

Kevin Pillar quietly played 159 games. He racked up 628 plate appearances, 12 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a .278/.314/.399 slash. He also contributed outstanding defense and base running.

The soon-to-be 27-year-old isn’t a perfect offensive force. He’s extremely aggressive outside of the strike zone, hence his low walk rate. However, he also keeps the strikeouts in line via an impressive contact rate. If he were to just avoid swinging out of the strike zone, he could become a valuable fantasy asset. Strangely, his swing rate inside the zone was slightly lower than average.

Since Pillar is one of the best defensive center fielders, he’ll play regularly. Expect him to continue batting near the bottom of the lineup. The Jays should once again feature a ridiculous offense so Pillar may still produce just as many runs as some more highly regarded offensive threats. Unless his plate discipline improves, I would look at his 2015 performance as a ceiling.

I was among the many fantasy players who dismissed Chris Colabello out of hand. The 32-year-old posted a 142 wRC+ in 360 plate appearances. He slashed .321/.367/.520 with 15 home runs and even stole two bases.

The Twins originally found Colabello in the Indy leagues. He credits his success in 2015 to a change in mechanics. A .411 BABIP also had something to do with his performance. While regression should be expected, perhaps Colabello can maintain an above average BABIP.

He likes to hit line drives up the middle. It’s readily apparent in his spray chart. In previous seasons, Colabello averaged just 14 percent line drives. Last year, he was up to 25 percent liners. As we know, an above average line drive rate is a key component of a high BABIP. It’s unclear if his new line drive rate is sustainable.

His 23 percent HR/FB ratio represents another likely area of regression. He’s a ground ball hitter with just 27 percent of his contact classified as a fly ball. Colabello does make hard contact so it’s not impossible for him to replicate his power numbers. It is improbable.

At this late point in his career, we should avoid the temptation to speculate about an increased fly ball rate as we do with Christian Yelich. Colabello’s batted ball profile probably is what it is. If he doesn’t maintain a high HR/FB rate, he won’t reach a 25 home run pace.

His playing time is much less certain than Pillar’s. Colabello is a lousy defender in the outfield. He’s blocked out there anyway. He even lost playing time at first base to Justin Smoak due to defense. Smoak is back on a $3.9 million contract. Colabello will probably platoon with him.

Pillar will be the more popular of the pair on draft day for obvious reasons. He has an uncontested role, and he’s coming off a season with 37 HR+SB. Colabello’s use case belongs in the late rounds of the draft. There’s potential for decent production – perhaps another 15 home runs with a .275 average over 400 plate appearances. That marks him as a perfect candidate for streaming in standard leagues.

Both players will benefit from their supporting cast. The Blue Jays offense should once again produce at a league leading rate. A full season of Troy Tulowitzki and a healthy return from Devon Travis could even increase the team’s overall production. That means more plate appearances for Pillar and Colabello, wearier opposing starting pitchers, and more time against the soft underbelly of opposing bullpens.