Soler Power

So it didn’t exactly go as planned for Jorge Soler in 2015. Rather than act as an integral part of an exciting young and powerful Cubs offense, Soler fizzled. Rather than make good on his sleeper/breakout/undervalued promise, he finished a pathetic 84th in value among just outfielders. That means he was worthless in 12-team leagues that start five outfielders! I did not see that coming.

Unlike 2015, the previous year was a good one for Soler. In 2014, he rocketed through the minors after slashing a robust .340/.432/.700. Yes, that equates to an insane .360 ISO. He hit 15 homers over just 200 at-bats. Besides impressing us with his power display, he walked 14% of the time and struck out at a very respectable 20.3% rate. It’s not often you see that kind of power paired with such a reasonable strikeout rate. It’s no wonder his debut was eagerly anticipated.

And when he finally did arrive in Chicago, he did not disappoint. He ISOd .281, driven by five homers in 89 at-bats, and batted .292 without any sort of huge help from the BABIP fairies. Sure, his plate discipline slipped, but not to a worrisome level, and he kept his SwStk% in acceptable range. And although the sample size was tiny, his xHR/FB rate metrics were out of this world:

Jorge Soler 2014 xHR/FB Metrics
Distance Rank* Angle Rank* SD Dist Rank*
292.5 47 23.5 32 80.0 1

*Out of 409 players on my spreadsheet

Soler hit the ball far (Distance), toward the lines (Angle) and alternated harmless flies with crazy moonshots (SD Dist). So naturally, his xHR/FB rate topped my entire list. Again, tiny sample, but when a player was touted as possessing immense power and then shows it during his debut, you have to take notice.

Unfortunately, 2015 failed to go as smoothly as 2014. His K% and SwStk%, ISO and HR/FB rate, FB% and Hard% all moved significantly in the wrong direction. And it all led to his wOBA plummeting to just .312, which was actually one point lower than the entire league average.

The cause of his strikeout rate spike could be found immediately in his plate discipline metrics. He swung a bit more often, but it was all about his O-Contact% falling off a cliff. In fact, he made the second lowest rate of contact with balls outside the zone among all hitters who recorded at least 400 plate appearances. He wasn’t even reaching for more pitches out there (his O-Swing% did rise, but barely), he just wasn’t making as much contact as he did during his cup of coffee last season. However, this feels less worrisome to me than if it was an issue with Z-Contact%. And there wasn’t one, as he actually made slightly more contact with pitches inside the zone.

He could probably afford to be a little more patient too. Given his mighty minor league walk rates, we know he has it in him. Steamer sees another slight jump up in walk rate and there is the upside of a significant, breakout level surge. Essentially that “putting it all together” type move.

The rest of his issues all stem from a related problem — his power disappeared. For whatever reason, he wasn’t hitting fly balls, but that isn’t so concerning, as he merely traded them off for lots and lots of line drives. Somewhere, Joey Votto is smiling. Because of that large line drive rate, the .361 BABIP appears legit. I wouldn’t count on another LD% that high, of course, but we can’t say he fluked his way to that inflated BABIP mark.

So back to the power. I’m now going to add his 2015 metrics to the above chart:

Jorge Soler 2014-2015 xHR/FB Metrics
Year Distance Rank* Angle Rank* SD Dist Rank*
2014 292.5 47 23.5 32 80.0 1
2015 291.0 84 18.2 338 56.8 237

*2015 rank was out of 400

Woah. His distance slid just a foot and a half, which is nothing, but funny how far his ranking fell. The other two metrics are what really tell the story. Suddenly, he wasn’t hitting everything close to the lines, something that his Pull% dropping from 50.7% to 38.3% supports. And suddenly he wasn’t alternating those moonshots that inflated his standard deviation of distance. In 2015, he was just an above average home run hitter and that was it. His doubles rate also collapsed, as he went from hitting one every 11.1 at bats in 2014 to one every 20.3 at bats. That 2014 mark certainly wasn’t sustainable, but that’s a move from elite territory to mediocre territory. A player with his pedigree has no business ISOing just .137.

Adding insult to injury, were…injuries! The disappointing offensive performance obviously wasn’t enough, so the luck dragons attacked Soler again, forcing him to miss a month of action with an ankle sprain and another three weeks with a strained oblique. Little went right with Soler this year, though at least he got to enjoy the team’s success that came a bit earlier than most expected.

There is little in Soler’s statistical profile that indicates bad luck or an imminent breakout. So instead, you have to rely on what he was supposed to be, that gorgeous minor league record and that sexy 2014 small sample with the Cubs. Close your eyes, forget about 2015 and be fairly certain that whatever price you acquire Soler for in 2016 auctions or drafts, there will be ample room for profit. And I’m betting that he’s going to deliver that profit as I remain cautiously optimistic about his future prospects.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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vince
8 years ago

You don’t seem cautiously optimistic, you seem to want to ignore 2015 completely. You seem to be dismissing the injuries as a fluke. I think at this point, we should expect steady injuries as they are a constant with him. Additionally, you are really dismissing his scary K rate from last year. Just close your eyes, and pretend that last year didn’t happen, is probably not the best analysis.

Matt
8 years ago
Reply to  vince

I wouldn’t say it’s quite that simple. A number of talented young hitters have improved their plate discipline over the course of the careers – and a number of them haven’t. Soler did show solid discipline in the minors, so that could be an indication that he could improve on his ’15 numbers, but it probably does take some optimism to expect that outcome.

Rob
8 years ago
Reply to  vince

and Vince, you seem to be ignoring 2014.

vince
8 years ago
Reply to  Rob

I think ignoring a smaller sample size versus less-prepared competition sounds like a good choice if I have to choose.

I am not saying that he is replacement level garbage forever, but perhaps he is not the superstar that everyone is hoping for. Perhaps he was/is massively overrated. Perhaps he will never play 150 games in a season. People had him pegged as a perennial MVP candidate. We should begin to consider that this is not the inevitable outcome. I know it is a tough pill to swallow.

He was universally pegged as a breakout last year. It is uncommon that everyone is on board like that. It only makes sense that he will be universally forgiven for his miserable 2015. Maybe he figures it out, maybe he doesn’t but the argument that he will probably be really good in 2016 is not all that rational. If he is decent next year, all of the pundits will talk about how right they were. This will be due to emotional investment rather than him meeting expectations.

dismiss this
8 years ago
Reply to  vince

He also made adjustments over the course of the season, which you seem to be ignoring. He struggled early with a large K zone called against him, and started expanding his zone. He showed in August what he is capable of (11.5% BB rate, 22% K) rate when he’s locked in. We all saw what he did in the post season.

Yeah, the injuries are a concern, but the talent is definitely there to break out.