I present to you my ten bold predictions for this upcoming season. I’ve placed these items in order of increasing boldness to give you some sense of how likely I think these things are to occur, in hopes that they’re more actionable. The items toward the top of the list are more likely to happen but perhaps not as bold… But I get pretty far out there by the end.

10. Gerardo Parra finishes the year as a top 25 OF. I feel as though this is cheating. Not bold enough. After all, he finished as the 3oth best OF last year (by my calculations). And yet, he’s being drafted as the 53rd OF this season. The issue here may be the projected platoon role he’s in. But is Ryan Raburn really going to take a lot of playing time from him? And with the possibility of Carlos Gonzalez being traded, there are other paths to a full-time role.

In the days of declining batting averages and diminishing stolen bases, a simple 12 HR, 12 SB, and .290 season (his Steamer projection) really adds up in value. Not to mention the move to Colorado offers hope for even more offense. It seems like Parra is being drafted as the former utility outfielder he was with Arizona. He wasn’t sexy. Nobody wanted him. Hopefully putting him in the top 25 crosses the bold threshold.

9. Jose Altuve finishes the year as a top five hitter. Is that bold? I’m not sure. He finished last year as the 13th highest earning hitter and is being drafted as the tenth hitter heading into 2016. Projecting him to outproduce all of Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa to reach the top five does feel bold-ish. One of my favorite facts about Altuve is that he’s still just 25 years old. I suspect that many believe him to be older than he is because he’s been around for nearly four and a half MLB seasons. Why can’t he have a little more growth in him? Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we kicked off updated rankings season. Several years ago, I began a series that has become an annual tradition – Pod’s Picks. When I manually project players for my Pod Projections, I rarely look at what the other systems are projecting. So I typically have little idea as to whether I’m bullish or bearish on a player, or my expectations are similar to everyone else’s. Outside of the projections, we all use different valuation systems. Even given the same projected line, two fantasy owners could potentially arrive at drastically different values for the same player. All this is a way of me saying that I never know who I like and who I dislike, compared to the market, until I see my rankings or dollar values directly compared to other sets.

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I am a huge San Francisco Giants fan. However, if you have followed my work prior to joining Rotographs, you know I hate Gregor Blanco. I will explain further. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been batting over .300 on bold predictions for a while, and I’ve also been getting crap for not being bold enough. So, in the honor of So So Def, I’ll stop slacking on my pimping, and I’ll turn it up.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Imagine having Mike Trout on your team. Seriously, just think about it for a second. An easy 30 home runs. Roughly a .300/.400/.600 triple-slash line, the baseball equivalent of basketball’s 50-40-90 club. Some stolen bases. Solid defense from a premium position. Kisses babies, shakes hands, frolics with puppies. All that good stuff.

Now imagine surrounding him – he of the four consecutive top-two finishes in American League MVP voting – with a supporting cast that still grades you as below-average on offense, with a 96 weighted runs created-plus and a pedestrian .307 OBP, after including Trout to bring the numbers up. Splitting his time between second and third in the order, Trout managed “just” 90 RBI, in part because the team’s lead-off hitters OBPd .280 (!!) and the team’s other regular No. 2 hitter, Kole Calhoun, struggled to get on base in that spot, too.

It has to be frustrating, having the best player in baseball and missing the playoffs because of the team around him. Not that the Angels were bad – they won 85 games despite getting outscored – and the nice thing about employing Trout is that you’re always going to project as “pretty decent” at worst. Still, it’s not exactly the most exciting lineup around him again in 2016.
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It’s back to another Steamer and I, as I compare my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts and identify players we disagree on most. Last time, I switched gears, discussing Mike Trout, who surprisingly I was far more bearish on than Steamer.

I am continuing the bearish theme with our next man, the ManBearPuig himself, Yasiel Puig. Puig made a splash in his 2013 debut, posting a .398 wOBA with strong power, some speed, and excellent defense in right field. But since, his offensive production has been in decline and last year he battled injuries en route to just a .328 wOBA. I think we all assume a rebound is in order, but the question is how much?

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The final season for the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field stands to be one of their most disappointing, so long as you’re of the belief meeting exceptionally low expectations still qualifies as a disappointment. The Braves opened their Turner Field tenure (then called Centennial Olympic Stadium) in 1997 with a 101-win season, winning 10 division titles in nearly two decades there. Last year, the Braves recorded 67 wins, the fewest in their history at the park. They stand to challenge that mark in 2016.

That’s because the Braves are coming off of a league-worst weighted runs created-plus of 85, built on a .251/.314/.359 triple-slash line that produced a sub-.300 weighted on-base average. That’s a lot of numbers to say the Braves’ offense was bad, with the league’s least-dangerous power-hitting lineup and not much plus-contact or speed to speak of to help make up for it.

Thee had a busy offseason in response, to the point that this year’s roster will look drastically different from last season’s. That’s probably a positive, even if Fangraphs’ projections see them scoring more than only the Phillies, if only for catharsis. And hey, maybe life at SunTrust Park will be better, even if it’s inconvenient for the bulk of the fan base and a waste of tax dollars.
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Damn Rotographs, back at it again with the Outfielder Rankings.

:punches self:

Sorry.

Baseball is back on the TV, the weather is warming up in my city (which is all I care about), and it’s time for a rankings update!

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Brad Johnson
• Paul Kastava
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

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We’ve been running a series looking at the potential top rookie producers at each position around the baseball diamond for a few weeks now. This series should be valuable for anyone participating in a fantasy league that allows keepers. It could also help anyone playing in more traditional formats who may need to fill holes throughout the season or may be in need of a little spark.

Today, we take our third and final look at freshman outfielders.

Previously:
Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Outfielders (1 of 3)
Outfielders (2 of 3)

More Names to Know:

Brandon Nimmo, Mets: There’s no room at the inn in New York so Nimmo will no doubt open the year in Triple-A. He’s also been rehabbing a foot injury, which doesn’t help his case to open the year in the majors. Nimmo, 23, needs some more polish anyway. He hasn’t shown much power or stolen base acumen so his fantasy value is tied almost solely to his ability to hit for average and his ability to get on base. He’ll likely need an injury occur — or Michael Conforto to fall on his face — to see any significant playing time in 2016.

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Today, I continue this year’s Steamer and I series, but switch it up to the other side. That is, the first two players I compared my Pod Projection to Steamer were those I was significantly more bullish on. Now I’ll take a look at a player I am far more bearish on than Steamer.

It should not surprise you that the fantasy relevant player I’m most pessimistic on versus Steamer is actually Xander Bogaerts, who I discussed last week. Obviously, I’m not going to talk about him a second time. So instead, I move down the list and find a big surprise – 2014 MVP Mike Trout. I debated whether it was even worth writing a potentially negative article on him because my opinion isn’t going to matter much. But I’m actually quite curious about what is driving my pessimism versus Steamer since this is a complete surprise to me. So let’s find out, shall we?

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