2016 Pod’s Picks & Pans: Outfield

Last week, we kicked off updated rankings season. Several years ago, I began a series that has become an annual tradition – Pod’s Picks. When I manually project players for my Pod Projections, I rarely look at what the other systems are projecting. So I typically have little idea as to whether I’m bullish or bearish on a player, or my expectations are similar to everyone else’s. Outside of the projections, we all use different valuation systems. Even given the same projected line, two fantasy owners could potentially arrive at drastically different values for the same player. All this is a way of me saying that I never know who I like and who I dislike, compared to the market, until I see my rankings or dollar values directly compared to other sets.

So rather than guess, our updated rankings allows me to perform a fun exercise each other. I go position by position, remove my ranking, and then recalculate the consensus from the other rankers. Compare it to mine and determine the players with the largest differentials between the consensus and the ranking. Boom – my picks and pans for the year.

We’ll start with outfielders, a group we posted updated rankings for last Monday. Since the standard 12-team mixed league starts 60 outfielders, my picks will include only guys in my top 60 and my pans will include only guys in the consensus top 60.

Picks

By far, the player with the biggest positive discrepancy is Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim. Last month, I took a stab at projecting Kim and since, slightly upped my HR/FB rate projection given the comments about his unfavorable home park. That increased HR/FB is reflected is the ranking above. I was intrigued by the possibility he hits lead-off with every day at-bats against righties, at the very least. Unfortunately, that plan may not come to fruition, as he has hit sixth for the most part, with Manny Machado taking over leadoff duties. That’s not such a terrible spot, and would result in more runs batted in, but would reduce his plate appearance total. With excellent plate discipline, a touch of speed, and possibly underappreciated power, he’s worthy of speculating on as a final outfielder. Little risk, big upside.

Well, Jay Bruce is a surprising name to find here. This is especially true since my valuation system seems to be overly bullish on high batting average guys and overly bearish on batting average killers. The first check is to see if my projection is more optimistic than the other system. Instead, it’s essentially a repeat of last year, with a batting average “rebound” to .244. Almost a mirror image from ZiPS. So it doesn’t seem to be a projection issue. Perhaps the other rankers see some regression after last season’s dead cat bounce.

We know that Ender Inciarte is a fabulous defender. But with an excellent contact rate, is a respectable hitter as well. His fantasy line is one that’s typically undervalued in a similar way that Parra’s is. He’ll steal 20 bases, which is good, but not elite, has limited power, and will contribute positive value with his average. Plus, he’ll be leading off for the Braves and regardless of how bad that offense may be, any every day leadoff guy should have no problem earning positive value in runs scored.

I think the other rankers are underestimating the move to Colorado for Gerardo Parra. Sure, he’s played his entire career in home parks that boosted left-handed home runs. But Coors is the top dog as the most home run friendly park for lefties in baseball. Sure, the higher walls this year are going to be a negative, but whatever home runs they take away (and I can’t imagine it’s any more than one or two), are most likely going to be a double or triple anyway. Coors is also the best in baseball for hits in general, so it’s a serious BABIP booster. My projections are right in line with the other forecasts, so this may be a valuation issue for a player who doesn’t stand out in any particular category, except batting average, which is routinely undervalued.

Josh Reddick really transformed his offensive game last year, significantly reducing his SwStk% and swinging less often. That fueled a career best strikeout rate, by far. Most exciting is that the improved contact didn’t hamper his power. His ISO was right in line with his career and HR/FB rate represented the second highest of his career. Health has been an issue, so it’s possible the other rankers are dinging him more than I am when it comes to projecting plate appearances (I’m at 573).

At least there’s seemingly an explanation for the disconnect with Khris Davis. Moving from a top hitters park in Milwaukee to Oakland’s pitcher friendly home is usually bad news for hitters. And that’s certainly the case from a rate perspective for Davis. I’m projecting a decline in wOBA from last year and a drip from his career mark. But he should remain in the cleanup spot all year, rather than moving around like he did as a Brewer. That should result in more plate appearances per game and boost his counting stats. So even with the significant decline in HR/FB rate I’m projecting, there’s enough here to offset that regression.

That sound you heard around the world on January 28th was the groans from fantasy owners who had Corey Dickerson as a cheap keeper. That’s the day he was traded to the Rays and his fantasy value tumbled. Sure, maybe his home/road splits are not totally fair to criticize because Coors Field does cause hitters to perform worse on the road. Fine. But Tropicana Field is quite the pitcher’s park, so he goes from the most hitter friendly park to one of the worst. And there’s still more bad news – that Rays outfield/first base/DH situation is CROWDED. No, he probably won’t be part of a rotation and just not start every so often. But he’s almost guaranteed to platoon and only start against righties. The Rays have too many right-handed hitting options to not platoon Dickerson. So he’s going to struggle to earn enough plate appearances to be a top 40 outfielder and the park effects are going to put a damper on his value. Maybe not as much on his power, but certainly his BABIP, as he posted a ridiculous .388 career mark at home versus a .307 mark in away parks.

I don’t dislike Joc Pederson and it’s certainly not an overreaction to his poor second half. Rather, my projection and ranking was built upon the assumption that he hits 8th in the Dodgers lineup. Hitting in front of the pitcher in the National League is the worst lineup spot in baseball to accumulate fantasy value. There’s been talk that Pederson could get some time in the leadoff spot, which would help immensely. If there is more evidence this happens, he may get a playing time boost which would increase his value. But as of now, he’s a severe batting average drain and won’t be able to earn much positive value in runs batted in and runs scored if he remains at the bottom of the order all year. Oddly, he’s very similar to Jay Bruce, but Bruce will hit in the middle of the order which will ensure his RBI+R total is far above Pederson’s. And yet, the consensus puts Pederson slightly higher than Bruce.

My primary concern with Michael Conforto is the risk of a platoon. If he’s not facing lefties, he’ll lose counting stats. Also a major issue is that he may very well open the season hitting seventh. Spot in the lineup seems to be a seriously underrated part of a player’s projected fantasy value, so it’s vital to pay attention to where a player figures to hit. In the National League, it’s difficult to accumulate a lot of value batting from the seventh or eighth spots.

Matt Holliday?! He’s a guy who got into boring veteran territory the last couple of years that I felt was always undervalued. So I’m very surprised to see his name here. Looking at the projections, it’s clear I’m simply more bearish, as the other systems expect more of a rebound, especially in power. I see a 36-year-old who posted a pathetic 266 foot batted ball distance last year (about the same as Martin Prado and Andrelton Simmons) and question how much rebound we’ll actually see this season. Hitting in the middle of the order will ensure his fantasy value doesn’t completely disappear, but he may very well be replacement level in 12-team mixed leagues.

Hmmm, seeing Billy Burns‘ name he shocks me. I’ve been accused of overvaluing the one-trick speedster ponies, and that is precisely what Burns is. My projections are identical to the systems, though I’m a bit lower on his stolen bases. Interestingly, the Fans project a .294 average, while I, and the systems, all sit in the .260 range. Perhaps the other rankers believe in his .339 BABIP last year far moreso than I do. His xBABIP last season was just .304, driving my .315 actual BABIP projection, so it appears to have been a total fluke. Different expectations for his batting average may be driving the gap here.

Another surprise is Christian Yelich. I’m actually as bullish as one can be about his power, but it’s hard to get too giddy when he has consistently posted a sub-20% fly ball rate. There’s always the chance he boosts that up, but until he does so, we can’t project it. And if he does, it will likely cost him some BABIP skills. As usual, my projection is generally in line with the rest of the systems, so it’s hard to determine the basis of the discrepancy.