Archive for Outfielders

Protect your windshields, Braves fans: Jason Heyward’s potent lefty bat is coming to Turner Field. The Atlanta Braves officially announced that the best position prospect in the game will open the 2010 season as the club’s starting right fielder.

Just 20, Heyward has pummeled opposing pitchers since the Braves selected him with the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft. His all-around talents have earned the admiration of all the prospect mavens: Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law named the Georgia prep product the best talent in the minors, while Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked him number two. John Sickels gave Heyward (who would be a junior had he attended UCLA) an A grade.

The 6-4, 220 pound man-child made his full-season debut in 2008, spending almost the entire year at Low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League (he got a late-season cameo in the High-A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach). Collectively, Heyward hit .316/.381/.473 in 533 plate appearances. He displayed some pop (.157 Isolated Power), while controlling the zone pretty well for such a young player (9.6 percent walk rate, 16.6 percent strikeout rate). Heyward was polished on the base paths as well, stealing 15 bags in 18 tries.

This past year, Heyward zoomed from Myrtle Beach to Double-A Mississippi of the Southern League, while getting a few trips to the plate in the International League for Triple-A Gwinnett. In 422 total PA, Heyward authored a .323/.408/.555 line, with a .232 ISO. Heyward walked as often as he whiffed, with 51 BBs and K’s apiece. While not a massive stolen base threat, he had 10 SB in 11 attempts.

Without question, Heyward is a premium keeper pick. But what can he contribute in 2010? CHONE projects Atlanta’s golden child to hit near a league-average clip, with a .258/.324/.416 triple-slash (98 wRC+). That jives with Heyward’s 2009 Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, which was .255/.321/.423 according to Minor League Splits. ZiPS is more optimistic that he can produce right away, forecasting .275/.341/.429 (110 wRC+). PECOTA likes Heyward even more, with a .280/.348/.477 projected line.

Heyward is a prodigious talent, a 20 year-old with the plate approach of a 30 year-old. Though it would be expecting too much for him to be a force at the plate right away, Heyward’s offensive floor for the upcoming season is probably that of an average MLB hitter. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he easily surpasses that level, with a batting line somewhere between his ZIPS and PECOTA projections. The only real quibble regarding Heyward is durability: he missed time during the ’09 regular season with oblique, hip and heel injuries, and he was sent home early from the Arizona Fall League with a hamstring strain and a sore back.

At worst, Heyward figures to be average in 2010. At best, he could be a key contributor in all fantasy leagues. This may be the last time that you can get him without giving up a primo draft pick. Just don’t park too close to the ball park.

(As a side note, Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz will split time in left field. While that arrangement should make for a productive real-world tandem, there’s little fantasy value to be had.)

Today we’re taking a look at the Top 15 outfielders up for consideration on Fantasy Draft Day. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.

The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)

Mr. Braun can do a little bit of everything for your fantasy squad. He can hit (.320 average, 203 hits in ’09), he can belt homers (32+ for three straight seasons) and he can run a little (20 steals in ’09). Thanks to some solid companionship in the lineup, he can also drive in and score 100+ runs a season. Add in the fact that’s he’s showing a better approach at the plate each season (walk-, K-rates and o-swing improving), and you have yourself a No. 1 stud outfielder.

The 25-year-old Kemp is zooming up quickly on Braun. He’s gotten better every year and he’s developed into a true 30-30 threat after slamming 26 homers and stealing 34+ bases for the second straight season. Kemp also had his first 100-RBI season in ’09 and he hits in a good, young lineup despite playing in a pitching-friendly park. He’s hit .290 or better in each of the last three seasons.

Upton is similar to Kemp, although not quite as proven, yet. Just 22, the converted infielder hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals in his first full MLB season in ’09. Upton is a little more of a free swinger than Kemp and the Diamondbacks’ best hitter doesn’t have quite as much protection in the lineup.

Sizemore had a down year in ’09, which is good news in one sense: You might get him at a slight discount in 2010. After hitting 22+ homers four four straight seasons, the outfielder slipped to 18 last year. He also failed to score 100 runs or steal 20+ bases after four straight seasons of doing just that. A 30-30 threat in his age-27 season, Sizemore won’t hit for a high average, but he should be around .270-.280 in ’10.

Holliday proved that there is life after Colorado for a slugger. He hit above .310 for the fifth straight season and even managed 24 homers despite playing part of the season in Oakland. Along with hitting for average and power, he’s a proven (and durable) slugger who can provide 100 RBI/runs, and steal 15-20 bases. Having Albert Pujols hit with him all season should definitely help the numbers.

The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)

You could include Bay in the Top Targets, but the Mets curse (and ballpark) worries me. The 31-year-old hitter should be good for power, RBI and runs. Bay should provide about 10 steals, but he’s not going to hit for a great average. Ellsbury won’t help you with power or RBI totals, but he’s going to steal a lot of bases and score a ton of runs while hitting for a good average. That pretty much sums up Crawford and Suzuki, too.

Werth is a 30-20 threat with great lineup protection, but he’s also an injury risk who does his fair share of swinging and missing. Lind’s breakout ’09 season was more believable than teammate Aaron Hill’s… and he’s one of the top up-and-comers in the American League. It’s just too bad he’s likely to spend much of the year at DH. We’re still waiting for Markakis’ breakout season and maybe 2010 will be the year. The 26-year-old outfielder could be good for a .300 average, 20 homers, 20 steals and 100 runs/RBI. Or, he could let us down again.

The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)

Hamilton has a huge ceiling but he also has a pretty high bust rate thanks to a lack of durability. Granderson could zoom up this list thanks to his presence in the Yankees’ potent lineup. He’s a sleeper 30-30 candidate. Cruz has some warts, but he also has 30-20 potential and hits in a good lineup and ballpark. Ramirez is getting older and less consistent but he’s in a contract year. Inconsistent + Frustrating = B.J. Upton. With that said, he’s a 20-40 threat. Ethier isn’t as explosive as his teammate Kemp and lacks stolen-base numbers, but he has power and run-producing skills. Choo is good for a .300 average, as well as 20 homers and steals. Perhaps 2010 will be the year that he scores 100 runs but he doesn’t hit in a great lineup.

Armed with a cadre of young, premium talent, the Texas Rangers have a good shot a contending in 2010 and figure to battle for AL West titles for years to come. CHONE projects Texas to tally 86 wins while taking baseball’s short-stack division. And there’s more help on the way. ESPN’s Keith Law placed the Rangers first in his 2010 MLB organizational rankings, as did Baseball America’s John Manuel on his own list.

While the club’s embarrassment of pitching riches dominates the conversation, Texas has a home-grown center fielder who figures to greatly aid those highly-touted arms. CHONE forecasts a 2.8 WAR season for Julio Borbon, with his superb range translating to well over a win saved defensively. But what about Borbon’s bat?

A University of Tennessee star, Borbon broke his ankle a week prior to the start of his junior season and missed the first two months of the college schedule. However, he recovered and impressed scouts with his fleet feet enough to be a supplemental first-round selection (35th overall) in the 2007 draft.

Texas inked the Scott Boras client for $1.3 million, and Borbon made his full-season debut in the High-A California League in 2008. In 314 plate appearances, Borbon batted .306/.346/.395, walking just 4.8 percent of the time but making plenty of contact (10.3 K%). He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts (an 83.7 percent success rate) for the aptly-named Bakersfield Blaze.

Borbon earned a promotion to the Double-A Texas League during the summer, where he hit .337/.380/.459 in 280 PA. His walk and whiff rates remained similar (5 BB%, 12.5 K%), and he showed a little more pop (.122 Isolated Power, compared to a .089 ISO in High-A). However, he certainly benefitted from a .370 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and his base thievery took a hit (17 steals in 28 attempts, a 60.7 percent success rate).

This past year, Borbon split his time between the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and the majors. With Oklahoma City, he posted a .307/.367/.386 triple-slash. He didn’t split the gaps often (.079 ISO), but Borbon improved somewhat in terms of working the count. He drew ball four 7.2 percent of the time, while striking out 9.8 percent. With 25 stolen bases in 32 tries (78.1 percent), he also put his speed to better use.

Borbon spent a few days in the big leagues in late June and early July, but he arrived in earnest in August. Overall, he had a .312/.376/.414 line in 179 PA, walking 8.4 percent and punching out 17.8 percent with a .102 ISO. His BABIP was .360. Most importantly for fantasy folks, Borbon nabbed 19 bases in 23 attempts, good for an 82.6 percent success rate.

Given the sample size, it’s best not to infer too much from Borbon’s first foray in the major leagues. But, his plate discipline stats indicate that he had some trouble telling balls from strikes. Borbon chased 27.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average), while letting ‘er rip on pitches within the zone just 55.5 percent (66 percent MLB average). Given his free-swinging ways in the minors, Borbon’s strike-zone judgment bears watching in 2010.

CHONE predicts that the 24 year-old will author a .297/.349/.400 line in 2010, with a 104 wRC+. Given a full year’s worth of playing time, Borbon should top 30 steals at a high-percentage clip. That makes him someone to target in mixed leagues. But as the old cliche goes, you can’t steal first. Borbon would be best served by showing a little more restraint at the plate.

Every fantasy owner has their personal list of prospects that they follow throughout the season, waiting to pounce on them should they be called up. Sure, everyone had guys like Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, and Buster Posey on their list, but there is always a few fringe prospects that could be of interest that no one else is thinking about. For me, one of those guys is Tony Gwynn, Jr. Following the 2006 season, in which he hit .300/.360/.396 with 30 steals in Triple-A, I was hooked. I liked him more for his name value than his production, but was interested in following his development nonetheless.

During 249 MLB games scattered across four seasons, Gwynn has been unimpressive. He has posted a career line of .261/.331/.326, good (bad?) enough for a wOBA of .298 and a wRC+ of 85. However, his career 9.2% walk rate is a plus, as is his 23% career line drive rate.

In 607 minor league games, Gwynn stole 151 bases in 205 tries (73.6% success rate). In 249 games in the majors, Gwynn has stolen 25 bases in 35 tries, coming in at a lower 71.4% success rate. A stolen base rate dropping once a player hits the big time is to be expected, due to veteran pitchers who can keep runners honest and catchers with better arms behind the plate. The big problem is that he is not being given the green light enough, and is on pace to attempt approximately half the steals he did in the minors over the same period of games.

Even though Gwynn has consistently hit below league average, his defense will keep him around in the big leagues. Both the FANS and CHONE have Gwynn at 5 runs below replacement level at the plate in 2010, yet both have him as a 2 WAR player. The CHONE projections have him with less than 500 plate appearances, so they are not inflated by unlikely playing time.

Talking to people that know the Padres far better than I do, it sounds like Gwynn will be given every opportunity to take the center field job. I’m still skeptical, but if he can get ample playing time, a .270 average with 15 steals is not out of the question, and will provide some value in NL-only and deep leagues.

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, the Detroit Tigers are close to signing free agent outfielder Johnny Damon to a one-year contract. Multiple sources indicate that the deal is worth $8 million.

Damon, 36, is coming off of a 2009 season in which he batted .282/.365/.489 in 626 plate appearances. Accounting for park and league factors, Johnny’s bat was 32 percent better than average (132 wRC+). That was the highest wRC+ of his career, just edging out his 130 mark in 2008.

The lefty batter’s career year at the plate was driven by a 24 home runs (tied with 2006 for the highest mark during his big league tenure) and a personal best .207 Isolated Power. Damon lofted the ball more than usual, hitting a fly ball 42.3 percent of the time (35 percent average since 2002), and 12.6 percent of those flys left the yard (9.4 percent average since ’02).

Not surprisingly, Damon’s power surge was predicated on his pulling the ball ferociously. Here are his splits by side of field from last season, as well as his splits from 2002-2009. I also included the league averages, taken from Dave Cameron’s post on Joe Mauer, for greater context:

Damon has generally been a very good pull hitter, but he went bonkers last season. As Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online shows, 23 of Johnny’s 24 bombs were hit to the pull side:

For those of you wondering, Damon’s HR distribution since 2002 breaks down as follows: one to left field, three to center and 129 to right field. About 97 percent of Damon’s dingers have been hit to the pull side over that time frame. Last year, AL batters hit 52.3 percent of their home runs to the pull field.

Johnny’s pull power surely wasn’t inhibited by New Yankee Stadium. In its inaugural year, the stadium inflated home run production by 26 percent compared to a neutral park. The HR park factor for lefty batters was 120, and 133 for right-handed hitters.

New Yankee Stadium received much attention for early-season power displays, and most fans probably think the park played like a bandbox. It’s wise not to glean too much from one year of data. But overall, the House That George Built wasn’t especially threatening to pitchers, decreasing run scoring by four percent according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook. There’s a tradeoff with all of those home runs: would-be doubles and triples that fall in at other stadiums find gloves in the Bronx (81 doubles factor, 50 triples factor).

For what it’s worth, Damon’s new home (Comerica Park) increased run production by five percent from 2007-2009. Comerica is homer-friendly (110 HR park factor), but much more so for righty batters (118 HR factor) than lefties (96 HR factor).

The big question with Damon, aside from, will he start rocking the cave man look again…

(picture from PicApp)

…is, what can we expect from him offensively in 2010? Just about no batters in their mid-thirties post career-best power numbers and then sustain that level of play. As such, it’s not surprising to see the projection systems calling for regression:

Bill James: .278/.355/.430, .152 ISO, 114 wRC+
CHONE: .270/.357/.432, .162 ISO, 116 wRC+

A simple Marcel projection spits out a similar line: .275/.353/.440, with a .165 ISO and a 117 wRC+.

Damon’s pending deal likely means that Carlos Guillen will spend more time at DH, with Ryan Raburn getting pushed back to the bench. Magglio Ordonez, meanwhile, will make stacks o’ cash in right field, though the separation between the $18 million man and the pre-arbitration Raburn looks slim:

2010 CHONE projections

Ordonez: .295/.362/.453, 120 wRC+
Raburn: .265/.339/.472, 116 wRC+

As for Damon, he remains a quality offensive player. But no one should be expecting a repeat of last season. According to MockDraftCentral, Johnny’s ADP is about 128, putting him in the same vicinity as Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez. You’d be better off pulling the trigger on either of those young, high-upside guys as opposed to Damon. Still, Detroit’s new left fielder is a good option, so long as your expectations are realistic.

Time to get all up in that left field position and see what we can find (sounds dirty). It’s an interesting position because it sports a top-five man (Ryan Braun, at 4.87 ADP), and yet the final tier averages somewhere around a 250 ADP. It’s not the deepest of positions, or it’s at least top-heavy.

The second tier has a bunch of second- and third-round guys that can offer some speed or slugging (in the case of Matt Holliday (21.89 ADP), a little of both), but there’s a curious inclusion in the tier that stands out. Right there, in the fifth round, there’s a player that could give you third-round value a good twenty picks later. Why are people avoiding Manny Ramirez (65.30) like the plague? Of course, there’s the obvious answer that comes in the form of a positive test for the wrong substance – and perhaps that should make people nervous. It’s a fly in the ointment and it probably won’t help to quote the projections that have Manny being the Manny of old (minus a few points for getting older). It’s a risk that has to be accounted for.

But lets say your league doesn’t break things down into separate positions in the outfield, then Manny comes in right around Andre Ethier (67.48 ADP) and Nelson Cruz (67.66 ADP). Those guys come with their own risk attached. Remember that Ethier used to be a 20-home-run-hitting outfielder as recently as 2008, and that Cruz, despite all his power and speed, has a 26% career strikeout percentage and a .255 career batting average (though I will admit to liking his power and speed contributions). Which risk do you take?

The next tier has some nice power, and even bounce-back candidate Alfonso Soriano (ADP 78.40) for power/speed potential too. But again, one man stands out like a sore thumb. Nolan Reimold (ADP 214.72) is young and has power and speed and a starting job that he should keep all year because of the rebuilding nature of his team. Much has been made of his Achilles’ injury, but perhaps many aren’t aware that Reimold made his stellar debut (.279/.369/.466 with 15 home runs and 8 stolen bases and a .365 wOBA) while being hobbled for much of the year with a 25% tear on that same tendon. What will he do once it heals? At that ADP, the shot at a .280 20+/10 outfielder should make you salivate. (At least it does that for me, am I weird?)

I’d hate to go all crazy on young ‘uns because there are plenty of values among the older left fielders. Plenty of old man skills, at least – Josh Willingham (270.94) sports those and is a value when surrounded by players like Carlos Ruiz (275.41 ADP) and Scott Hairston (277.51 ADP).

But I’m drawn to upside, and there’s Matt LaPorta (325.88 ADP) sitting right there for the plucking. He’s had some strikeout issues in the past, and he’s been a little old for his minor league levels, so he may not be the ueber-prospect we thought he was. But he has real power – his .188 debut ISO was low compared to his minor league power – and that’s always got a place in my lineup. Especially at this price.

Reader G. Azama submitted this question to me directly, but it’s a mailbag question nonetheless:

I’m in a 14 Team mixed keeper league. We get to keep any 7 players and as far as I know, there’s no limitation on how many years we get to keep the players.

Positions are C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI, 5 OF, bunch of pitchers and long bench.

Stats are the basic 5×5 plus OPS and Holds. Because of the holds, Closers are hard to come by, in fact very hard to come by if you don’t draft them.

I had a pretty good team and got nip at the end and came in second. My potential keepers are Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, Joey Votto, Kung-Fu Panda, Kendry Morales, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels.

Straight up keepers. Draft position from last year is not a factor.the draft will be done in the reverse order of the finish in every round. In other words, I will be drafting thirteenth on every round, since I came in second last year.

I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to figure out what makes sense. As you can see I’ve got quite a few good young players! Hard decision. I think the top 4 are keepers for sure. It’s after that that I have a hard time deciding.

I completely agree that Timmy, Utley, Votto and Pablo Sandoval are instant keepers in this case. I also think that you need to keep Broxton to at least have one closer on your roster. That leaves us with Kendry, Ethier, Hanson and Hamels to fill two spots.

Kendry provided owners with more power than they could have ever hoped for, with a fantastic average to boot. For the most part, his 34 homers came out of no where, but he did have a brief history of power in Triple-A during the 2008 season, hitting 15 homers in 340 plate appearances. However, a .335 BABIP is likely to drop bringing his average down below the .300 mark. Also, Kendry doesn’t draw many walks so his value drops in OBP leagues, but an OPS league keeps his value high.

Ethier’s power last year was also a pleasant surprise, but his .272 average was a disappointment. He isn’t likely to hit 31 homers again, but 25 homers is not out of the question. Unlike Kendry, Ethier draws a walk and can keep his OPS high even when he is in a “slump”. His average should rise back to around .285, and a solid lineup around him means good production all around.

David Golebiewski already did quite the workup on Hanson in December, so I’m not going to step on his work and repeat what he said. Cole Hamels had a career year in 2008, and then posted career worst fantasy numbers in 2009. However, his FIP was exactly the same in both years, coming in at 3.72. Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? 2010 is likely to be an average of 2008 and 2009, with his ERA coming in around 3.70 with good wins, strikeouts and WHIP.

I really like Kendry, but with Votto and Kung-Fu Panda already on the roster he is expendable. In a league with five outfielders, I’m keeping Either, that much I’m sure about. Now we are down to Hanson and Hamels for one last spot. Because there is no limit on how long you can keep players, I’m keeping Hanson.

To recap, I’m keeping Timmy, Utley, Votto, Panda, Broxton, Ethier and Hanson.

Have a question for the mailbag? Send it to rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com.

Though our tools may not always be at their sharpest, we can still use them in concert to find truth in the fog. Yes, the 2010 projections are not up yet at BaseballMonster, but we have a sweet set here and can use their standard-deviation weighted-category-based rankings to help compare players with different skill sets. Yes, the ADP values on MockDraftCentral are flawed and skewed by their proprietary pre-ranks, but until we have more sources, they’ll have to do (Yahoo ADPs go live February 18).

The flaws of our tools were revealed when we looked at the first couple of center field tiers on Thursday, but the middle tier awaits and we will not be deterred from our goal of finding the strongest values at each position (and yes, we’ll do a post to gather all of these values into one place eventually).

Melvin Bossman Jr Upton is being taken the earliest (59.88), but after reading Dan Budreika’s breakdown of the difficulty of projecting his season (especially his power, in my opinion), I have to think that’s a little early for him. Adam Jones (89.04) comes next, but with most projections having him around 18 and 10 with an okay batting average, that seems a little high for a guy that won’t be a major plus in any category. Andrew McCutchen (91.08) may yet grow into his power, but as Paul Bourdett pointed out here, our perception of the current level of his power might have been skewed by a burst late last year. The fact remains that his minor league ISO was in the .130s, not the .180s like last year. Without plus power, he looks like a Shane Victorino (74.25) who I also believe is going too high (unless he finally steals 40+).

I hate to be so obvious about my man-crushes, but Carlos Gonzalez (124.70) has all the tools to fly past all the center fielders in his tier. We’ve talked extensively about him on the site, but I’ll just add a couple more points. CarGo is in a crowded outfield, yes, but the team hasn’t shown the willingness to make Seth Smith an every-day player, so it really looks like Smith and Dexter Fowler are the ones battling for playing time. CarGo played almost every day down the stretch down last year and I expect that to continue. Second, it makes me drool when a toolsy former top prospect makes good on his tools by improving his walk rate, strikeout rate, reach rates and contact rates across the board, while also returning his ISO to his minor league days of promise. The stars are aligned for CarGo to Go CarGo.

The speed-only tier creates a trio of players that are seemingly projected (by CHONE) to be virtually the same players next year:

Player A: .268, 4 home runs, 37 steals
Player B: .281, 3 home runs, 29 steals
Player C: .270, 4 home runs, 31 steals

What if I added that Player B actually stole 42 bases last year with a 71% success rate? Well, then you’d probably want him, wouldn’t you? Congratulations, you just bought Nyjer Morgan at bargain-basement prices (130.21 ADP). He would almsot certainly make a better value than Michael Bourn (72.45 ADP), and should sport a better batting average (and more guaranteed playing time) than Rajai Davis (171.44 ADP) in that crowded house that is the Oakland outfield.

We may have to go to a part three here to discuss the fantasy fault line (thanks to reader Johnny Tuttle for that wording, which may become a feature here shortly) between Shane Victorino and Denard Span.

This was supposed to be a look at the ADP values in the tiers I created during my Check the Position series, but two pairs of players in the second center field tier caught my eye. These players lie right on fantasy fault lines: they are within a couple picks of each other, yet it seems that their value is disparate. I think you’ll be able to tell who I fancy (as the Brits say).

First up are two borderline second-rounders (though a bit less borderline if your league breaks out the outfield into three positions). Jacoby Ellsbury (20.36 ADP) goes earliest, and many fantasy managers may scoff at the number if they are accustomed to playing with plain “OF” positions, and they could be right. He is projected to retain his game-changing speed and put up a steals number north of 50. To put that in perspective, only three players crossed that threshold last year, and only one other player is projected to do so in most projection systems next year (Michael Bourn). There’s a good chance that Ellsbury finally nets triple-digit runs too, provided he remains atop the order and the Boston offense doesn’t take a step back with their renewed emphasis on defense. So Ellsbury will have some good qualities.

But what about Grady Sizemore (26.52 ADP), who is being picked almost a half-round later? If you were in the right draft spot, you could actually avoid Ellsbury and take Sizemore after the turn in the third round. I did it recently, and felt great about it. It’s not like Sizemore won’t steal any bases – although the amount is in question. He put up a career-low 6.0 speed score last year (5.0 is average) and the projections range from 20 steals to the Fans’ more optimistic 29 steals. He’s still young (27), and here’s a bet that he’ll touch the higher end of the steals projections. The power is no question – he should out-homer Ellsbury by at least a dozen home runs, and as many as 20. For whatever reason, his batting average won’t be as nice, either.

So how do you compare two different players like this? How much are Ellsbury’s extra singles and stolen bases worth? How much should you pay for Sizemore’s extra power? An excellent site, BaseballMonster.com, attempts to answer this question by measuring a player’s impact in each of the 5×5 categories in terms of standard deviations above the mean in said category. Using Sizemore’s projections for 2009 (2010 is not up yet, and the .276, 32 HR, 38 SBs only need to be scaled back a little in the speed category to make sense), his across-the-board positive contributions gave him a ranking as the ninth-best hitter. How did Ellsbury finish last year? 14th. (I report, you decide.)

Next up is Curtis Granderson (53.64 ADP), who already seems like an ADP value at his draft position. In fact, in that mock where I scored Sizemore in the third, I took Granderson after the turn in the fifth and called it a double-victory. Granderson is going from a park that had a .974 park factor for home runs last year to one that sported a 1.261 factor this year. He’s going to have a nice bounce-back season according to his BABIP (.276 last year, .323 career). Yes, his speed factor was lower than his career average, but the speed factor counts stolen bases, and it’s hard to steal bases when you aren’t on base (and it’s hard to get on base when you’re getting unlucky with the bouncing ball). All systems go for Granderson, despite his unfavorable splits against lefties, which may not be as bad as they first appear.

And yet, Josh Hamilton (52.85 ADP), who has further to bounce back, is getting picked before Granderson. This is really a head-scratcher, in the end. Perhaps fantasy managers are being swayed by that gaudy 130 RBI total a couple of years back, because his career-high in home runs (32) is only two more than Granderson’s, and he doesn’t really steal bases (at all). Again, we are left to ponder the value of Hamilton’s batting average, because the RBI are so team-specific, and Granderson may out-produce Hamilton in that category depending on his position in the batting lineup in the Bronx. I think the home run totals will be close, and Granderson will get the final laugh.

Two years ago it seemed as if B.J. Upton was on top of the world. He had just concluded his first full season in the big leagues at age 22 and he posted a .387 wOBA in 129 games. Then the Devil Rays became the Rays and Upton hasn’t been the same since.

Upton didn’t match his 2007 performance in 2008 but he clubbed seven homers in October to help Tampa Bay reach the world series. He experienced some shoulder woes that year and had surgery after the Rays were defeated by the Phillies in the series.

The stage was set last year for Upton to put together a huge season but the exact opposite happened. He missed the first week of the season and the left shoulder that he had operated on in the off season never regained full strength. This all amounted to an extremely frustrating season for Upton as he wrapped up the year with a paltry .310 wOBA over 560 at-bats. His .241/.313/.373 triple-slash was very underwhelming.

Upton has regressed over each of the past three seasons at the plate. Below is his wRC+ trend line over the past three seasons:

wRC+
2007: 139
2008: 119
2009: 89

That’s a consistent and scary trend. Upton’s production has decreased heavily from each season to the next since 2007 and it’s extremely unlikely that he continues such a dreadful trend in 2010.

Luckily for the Rays his plus defense still makes him a valuable player but if he could ever rediscover his stroke at the plate then he would be an extremely valuable player again.

Upton’s entering his 25-year-old season and there is much reason for optimism. A strong and healthy left shoulder should be helpful but there’s also some interesting and telling information that lays in the data. Upton will always strike out at a healthy clip but his career-low 9% walk rate is a point of concern. He walked at higher rates over the prior two seasons.

Upton’s BABIP cratered to .312 last season. Where is his true talent level? That’s hard to tell from his varying samples over the past three seasons. But the helpful BABIP calculator from the Hardball Times tells us another story. Here are his xBABIPs over the past three seasons according to the calculator:

2007: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .399. Difference- +61
2008: xBABIP- .353. Actual- .351. Difference- -2
2009: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .312. Difference- +26

The calculator cuts down on Upton’s BABIP spread over the past three years. The range of his xBABIPs is 15 while the range of his actual BABIPs is 87. There’s no doubt his 2007 BABIP padded his numbers and it set the performance bar pretty high for him at the time.

Despite the exact same (.338) xBABIPs in 2007 and 2009, Upton, hit the ball with much more authority in 2007. He slugged 24 homers in 2007 compared to just 11 last year and he had a career-low 15.4% line drive rate in 2009. His line drive rate was 19.6% in 2007. He also hit a career-high 13 pop ups last season.

All of Upton’s varying and perplexing batting lines can’t be chalked up to just lucky or unlucky BABIP variations. While it played a role there are reasons for such drastic performances and they cannot be easily explained. We may have a true conundrum on our hands and more data will be essential in determining who the real B.J. Upton is. These varying performances do suggest that his bum shoulder really could have played a big role in his lackluster production.

We do know from our nifty run values that Upton battered and bruised fastballs during his banner 2007 campaign. He’s never hit them so well ever since and this does help explain his performance dip. Perhaps that shoulder could have plagued him when he tried to get around on fastballs?

Upton also has funky O-Contact percentages over the past three seasons similar to his varying BABIPs. He’s made contact at a very below-average rate (except for 2008) when he offers at pitches outside of the strike zone. He was actually above-average in 2008 when he had a solid campaign at the plate.

Finally, what can we expect from Upton going forward? It’s hard to exactly say what Upton will do in 2010. He’s always had the ability, athleticism, and a mouth watering set of tools. Some scouts may not be surprised if he unleashes an MVP like season now that he’s in good health.

I think Upton’s 2008 season (.273/.383/.401) would be a nice modest projection (minus some OBP) for Upton and many of the projection systems here at Fangraphs have him projected in that area. It’s playing it safe but his BABIP should recover and that would push him closer to his 2008 totals.

Upton’s a toolsy player and he should be entering his prime. Barring health I’d expect the power to play and it’s fair to project him to drop around 20 homers next year. The 100 Fan Projections currently available have nailed The Upton Case right on the button. The Fans have him at .273/.363/.442 with 40+ stolen bases and I think that’s a very fair and accurate projection.

If you can grab Upton in the middle rounds of your draft then he would be a steal. But don’t be afraid to pop him a bit sooner than that. He’s ready to put that nightmarish 2009 to rest.