Draft Order: The Outfielders
Today we’re taking a look at the Top 15 outfielders up for consideration on Fantasy Draft Day. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.
The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)
Mr. Braun can do a little bit of everything for your fantasy squad. He can hit (.320 average, 203 hits in ’09), he can belt homers (32+ for three straight seasons) and he can run a little (20 steals in ’09). Thanks to some solid companionship in the lineup, he can also drive in and score 100+ runs a season. Add in the fact that’s he’s showing a better approach at the plate each season (walk-, K-rates and o-swing improving), and you have yourself a No. 1 stud outfielder.
The 25-year-old Kemp is zooming up quickly on Braun. He’s gotten better every year and he’s developed into a true 30-30 threat after slamming 26 homers and stealing 34+ bases for the second straight season. Kemp also had his first 100-RBI season in ’09 and he hits in a good, young lineup despite playing in a pitching-friendly park. He’s hit .290 or better in each of the last three seasons.
Upton is similar to Kemp, although not quite as proven, yet. Just 22, the converted infielder hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals in his first full MLB season in ’09. Upton is a little more of a free swinger than Kemp and the Diamondbacks’ best hitter doesn’t have quite as much protection in the lineup.
Sizemore had a down year in ’09, which is good news in one sense: You might get him at a slight discount in 2010. After hitting 22+ homers four four straight seasons, the outfielder slipped to 18 last year. He also failed to score 100 runs or steal 20+ bases after four straight seasons of doing just that. A 30-30 threat in his age-27 season, Sizemore won’t hit for a high average, but he should be around .270-.280 in ’10.
Holliday proved that there is life after Colorado for a slugger. He hit above .310 for the fifth straight season and even managed 24 homers despite playing part of the season in Oakland. Along with hitting for average and power, he’s a proven (and durable) slugger who can provide 100 RBI/runs, and steal 15-20 bases. Having Albert Pujols hit with him all season should definitely help the numbers.
The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)
You could include Bay in the Top Targets, but the Mets curse (and ballpark) worries me. The 31-year-old hitter should be good for power, RBI and runs. Bay should provide about 10 steals, but he’s not going to hit for a great average. Ellsbury won’t help you with power or RBI totals, but he’s going to steal a lot of bases and score a ton of runs while hitting for a good average. That pretty much sums up Crawford and Suzuki, too.
Werth is a 30-20 threat with great lineup protection, but he’s also an injury risk who does his fair share of swinging and missing. Lind’s breakout ’09 season was more believable than teammate Aaron Hill’s… and he’s one of the top up-and-comers in the American League. It’s just too bad he’s likely to spend much of the year at DH. We’re still waiting for Markakis’ breakout season and maybe 2010 will be the year. The 26-year-old outfielder could be good for a .300 average, 20 homers, 20 steals and 100 runs/RBI. Or, he could let us down again.
The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)
Hamilton has a huge ceiling but he also has a pretty high bust rate thanks to a lack of durability. Granderson could zoom up this list thanks to his presence in the Yankees’ potent lineup. He’s a sleeper 30-30 candidate. Cruz has some warts, but he also has 30-20 potential and hits in a good lineup and ballpark. Ramirez is getting older and less consistent but he’s in a contract year. Inconsistent + Frustrating = B.J. Upton. With that said, he’s a 20-40 threat. Ethier isn’t as explosive as his teammate Kemp and lacks stolen-base numbers, but he has power and run-producing skills. Choo is good for a .300 average, as well as 20 homers and steals. Perhaps 2010 will be the year that he scores 100 runs but he doesn’t hit in a great lineup.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Love the Fan-and-Rotographs writing, but I’m really disappointed to only see 19 OFs ranked/listed here, considering the minimum # of OF you could really see in fantasy would be 30, and the max for a “normal” league might be 60 (5 OF per team in a 12 team league). Do you plan any additional OF posts?
I agree. I don’t mean any disrespect. But, where is the value in the article? We got a list of the top 19 OF’s and a small blurb on some of them. This seems to be below the standard of the general Fan/Rotographs reader. Don’t we all know this already?
I think some more depth was definitely needed here. Still appreciate your work Mr. Hulet.
Honestly I am getting a little tired of the material here. Take a look at the recent posts….they are basically all either summaries concerning very low-upside players who will have minimal impact, or articles like this one, which really don’t say anything we didn’t already know.
By here, I mean Rotographs, not the main site.
I take that back. I must have been over tired and grumpy when I said this.
I think Abreu should make the leftovers, if for no other reason than because he is consistent. He provides solid contributions in R, RBI, SB and AVG (or OBP) and isn’t a total liability in HR.
“We’re still waiting for Markakis’ breakout season and maybe 2010 will be the year. The 26-year-old outfielder could be good for a .300 average, 20 homers, 20 steals and 100 runs/RBI. Or, he could let us down again.”
By that standard, Markakis hasn’t really let anyone down over the last three years–average numbers (rounded): .300 avg, 20 HR, 11 SB, 99 runs, 100 RBI. A few more SBs and he’s right at what you’re saying he could be good for. Granted, last year was the worst of his last three seasons.
Yeah, I don’t get the “still waiting” line. I’ve got Markakis a good deal higher on my draft board, as a “break out” from those numbers would have him well in Kemp/Upton/Sizemore territory. I wonder if people are letting his (incredibly) bad finish last season outweigh his overall production.
I think Markakis could still take a step forward. Maybe even a big one. He’s only just barely 26. That being said, I’m also thinking his huge walk rate in 2009 was a fluke. He’s been at 8% BB rate every year but 2009. His K rate was also way up that year. I think perhaps he was just waiting on a lot more pitches, increasing both walks and Ks (a la Jack Cust?).
Maybe he really is a 14% BB/15% K guy (his career-best in each category). But if not, you’re totally reliant on him playing a ton of games to get his numbers. In a rotisserie league, no problem. But in a H2H league, his week-by-week numbers are really not going to be as impressive. He’s a 45 double, 20-homer 95 R/RBI, 10ish SB guy. That’s great, but not when it takes him 700 PA to get it. If he ever misses time with an injury or you play H2H, that’s not nearly as great.
If you want to draft him hoping he breaks out, that his BABIP never falls below .330 (which is sustainable, but still), that he never gets injured, and that his best BB and K rates are the correct ones, and you play H2H, feel free.
Oops. By 2009, I mean 2008. If I wrote checks any more (really, who the hell isn’t using online billpay for everything?), I’d still be writing 2009.
I don’t see any way that Granderson is a potential 30-30 candidate. He hit 30 homeruns last year, but he also only hit 23 doubles. He has never come close to that many homeruns in another season. The HR total is going down, even with the switch to Yankee Stadium. Also, his career high SB total (26) came in 2007. I think it’s safe to project around 22-25 homeruns, 20 stolen bases and an average anywhere from .270-.290.
“Upton is a little more of a free swinger than Kemp”
BB% – Upton 9.4 vs. Kemp 7.8
O-Swing% – Upton 24.1 vs. Kemp 28.5
Swing% – Upton 47.9 vs Kemp 47.9
Upton does make contact slightly less, but that was a fairly baseless comment and I have to agree with some of the other takes on this article, fairly lame for fangraphs standards?
correction Upton swing% 45.3 Kemp swing% – 47.9
where’s Adam Lind?
Carlos Quentin > Jason Bay
Wow, that is a pretty bold statement. There is a big *IF* that needs to be inserted in there.
I’d agree he’s the better hitter. Depends exactly what all was intended in the greater sign.
I have Quentin in a replay league (we use Diamond Mind) and while a healthy Quentin is probably better than a healthy Bay there (and in real life), I’m not sure that’s ever true in fantasy.
Comparable averages, maybe comparable home run rates (if Quentin is ever 100% healthy), similar OBPs. Quentin helps more in real life because he Ks less, his defense is somewhat less dreadful, but his OBP is also based a great deal on HBP, which may or may not be sustainable (I have no idea). If they were both going to DH and age weren’t an issue, I’m not sure a healthy Quentin is better than a healthy Bay.
Jimbo, it means that he could eat him.
Thanks for the clarification. I’ll never look at Old Bay Seasoning the same again.
I can understand your wish to see more players; You have to keep in mind, though, that there are many different levels of fantasy players and knowledge… these articles may not be as advanced as some, but they also produce some of the biggest traffic on the site, so people are reading them.
And you can definitely rest easy… our writers will be getting more in-depth as the days and weeks progress… we’ll be breaking down the positions all season long… And we’re also looking to write different types of articles and about different strategies… that’s one of the reasons for our recent job hunt (which is still ongoing so don’t worry if you haven’t heard anything yet).
It might be worth remembering that last year Kemp suffered through the distraction of hitting in every spot in the batting order, with his most AB’s by far hitting 7th, and 87 AB’s logged hitting 8th and 9th. That’s right, Torre hit him 9th in 4 interleague games. Call me an optimist, but I’m assuming Torre has come to his senses.
As of a couple of weeks ago, Torre apparently has… sort of. He’s now planning to have Kemp bat 2nd. Which should help his run total a fair bit, his RBIs not so much. (That link is worth following just to see Kemp model the new official Dodgers headgear)
So now Joe is a convert to the philosophy of “stacking all your good hitters at the top”. Quick learner.
My feeling is that hitting 2nd in a National League lineup can be the toughest spot in a batting order, depending on the leadoff hitter. I think the Phils acquired Polanco because they (and Rollins) think he will be good for Rollins and therefore good for the Phils. Kemp was fine in the 2 hole last year and I don’t think he has to be concerned with accomodating himself to the leadoff man so chances are this will work out.