Mailbag: Keeping Morales, Ethier, Hanson or Hamels?
Reader G. Azama submitted this question to me directly, but it’s a mailbag question nonetheless:
I’m in a 14 Team mixed keeper league. We get to keep any 7 players and as far as I know, there’s no limitation on how many years we get to keep the players.
Positions are C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI, 5 OF, bunch of pitchers and long bench.
Stats are the basic 5×5 plus OPS and Holds. Because of the holds, Closers are hard to come by, in fact very hard to come by if you don’t draft them.
I had a pretty good team and got nip at the end and came in second. My potential keepers are Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, Joey Votto, Kung-Fu Panda, Kendry Morales, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels.
Straight up keepers. Draft position from last year is not a factor.the draft will be done in the reverse order of the finish in every round. In other words, I will be drafting thirteenth on every round, since I came in second last year.
I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to figure out what makes sense. As you can see I’ve got quite a few good young players! Hard decision. I think the top 4 are keepers for sure. It’s after that that I have a hard time deciding.
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I completely agree that Timmy, Utley, Votto and Pablo Sandoval are instant keepers in this case. I also think that you need to keep Broxton to at least have one closer on your roster. That leaves us with Kendry, Ethier, Hanson and Hamels to fill two spots.
Kendry provided owners with more power than they could have ever hoped for, with a fantastic average to boot. For the most part, his 34 homers came out of no where, but he did have a brief history of power in Triple-A during the 2008 season, hitting 15 homers in 340 plate appearances. However, a .335 BABIP is likely to drop bringing his average down below the .300 mark. Also, Kendry doesn’t draw many walks so his value drops in OBP leagues, but an OPS league keeps his value high.
Ethier’s power last year was also a pleasant surprise, but his .272 average was a disappointment. He isn’t likely to hit 31 homers again, but 25 homers is not out of the question. Unlike Kendry, Ethier draws a walk and can keep his OPS high even when he is in a “slump”. His average should rise back to around .285, and a solid lineup around him means good production all around.
David Golebiewski already did quite the workup on Hanson in December, so I’m not going to step on his work and repeat what he said. Cole Hamels had a career year in 2008, and then posted career worst fantasy numbers in 2009. However, his FIP was exactly the same in both years, coming in at 3.72. Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? 2010 is likely to be an average of 2008 and 2009, with his ERA coming in around 3.70 with good wins, strikeouts and WHIP.
I really like Kendry, but with Votto and Kung-Fu Panda already on the roster he is expendable. In a league with five outfielders, I’m keeping Either, that much I’m sure about. Now we are down to Hanson and Hamels for one last spot. Because there is no limit on how long you can keep players, I’m keeping Hanson.
To recap, I’m keeping Timmy, Utley, Votto, Panda, Broxton, Ethier and Hanson.
Have a question for the mailbag? Send it to rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
How do keeper leagues with no “value” work?
No salaray cap dollar amount or draft pick sacrifice.
Why are closers harder to come by with holds as a category? Doesn’t the existence of holds devalue closers even more? You could punt saves, acquire cheap holds, and finish midpack in the RP categories (14 pts for holds, 1 pt for saves). Or, another way to look at it is that an extra 2 categories in a 6×6 makes each category less important individually. So getting only 3 or 4 pts in steals or saves is more easily overcome.
( I assume it’s roto and not head-to-head,)
My guess is because the “potential” closers are then already on someone’s roster, so it isn’t like you can snag saves later.
Keeper leagues with no value, just mean that once you acquire a guy, you can keep him for as long as you want. In essence, there’s no budget at all in a set up like that. You also do not give up draft picks.
I also don’t understand this “straight-up keepers… draft position from last year is not a factor” concept. If you keep 7 players from a 25-man roster, say, you’re only drafting 18 players. How can you not give up draft picks? It doesn’t make sense. That means that each year, your total roster size just increases by 7.
Does it mean that you’re only having 18 rounds in a draft? If so, it doesn’t seem like keeping a young player would be worthwhile, since you’re essentially drafting that player in rounds 19-25, which is closer to their actual value than a top-round player.
In ESPN, straight keeper leagues use the first X rounds as keeper selection rounds. So for the first seven rounds of this owner’s draft, teams will be auto-picking their keepers, and the rest of the draft will begin in the eighth round.
Do you know your draft position yet? If you’re going to be in the top few picks in the first round and it looks like the teams ahead of you are using keeper slots on closers, I’d keep Hamels over Broxton. I agree with Zach on the other six players, but I might take Hamels as the seventh player depending on league context.
It clearly states his draft position.
Whoops, probably should have caught that.
Had the exact keepers I was about to list. Definitely go with Ethier over Kendry when he has somebody like Votto and Pablo who has 1B eligibility
I don’t understand that mentality. There’s a CI spot. Filling that with a good player frees you up to take other OF earlier. Due to the fact that there’s both AVG and OPS, Kendry’s better average is going to count twice. Adding to that he has equal power and plays in an equal lineup, what is the advantage of Ethier? The advantage of not having to draft any more OF? Seems like a pretty deep position, even with 5 OF, to make that tradeoff.
Toss back Broxton and keep Hamels
I would agree with dumping Broxton. While closers may be hard to come by, it’s not like you can’t draft them. By grabbing guys and their handcuffs, you can deal with both saves and holds at the same time. I’d rather have Morales or Hamels than Broxton. Even if you have Broxton, you have to identify and draft his handcuff if you want to be secure. At that point, why not just grab a guy like Billy Wagner plus setup man?
I can’t say I’m totally sold on Morales or Hamels, but I think I’d rather have one of them than invest in such a volatile commodity at that price- especially when you’re basically forced to handcuff anyways (Broxton is not ensured to be the picture of health). And if you have to handcuff- why not get a cheaper closer and his handcuff?