Archive for Outfielders

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

When it comes to offensive ineptitude, the Houston Astros reign supreme. Collectively, ‘Stros batters have a MLB-worst .260 wOBA. That’s 29 points below the mark posted by the second-to-last Mariners. Houston ranks dead last in the majors in walk rate as well, at 5.1 percent. It’s not close, either: the Royals and Orioles, tied for 29th-place, look downright patient by comparison, drawing free passes at a 7.2 percent rate. Not surprisingly, the Astros have hacked at plenty of pitches out of the strike zone (29.8 percent, 6th-highest in the majors; the MLB average is 25-27% in recent years).

The biggest hacker, aside from Humberto Quintero, has been right fielder Hunter Pence. Houston’s second round pick in the 2004 draft broke into the big leagues in 2007, hitting .322/.360/.539 with a .384 wOBA. While Pence displayed excellent pop during his rookie year (.217 Isolated Power), his .377 batting average on balls in play was bound to come down. It did in 2008 (.301 BABIP), and his line dropped to .269/.318/.466 (.334 wOBA). Pence again put a charge into the ball, with a .197 ISO, but his free-swinging ways were more of a problem without all of those additional bloops and bleeders avoiding leather.

In 2009, Pence showed more restraint at the plate and turned in a quality offensive season. After swinging at 29.8 percent of pitches out of the zone in ’07 and 31.1 percent in ’08, Pence chased 26.6 percent of outside pitches in ’09. His walk rate, 5.4 percent and 6.2 percent the two previous seasons, climbed to nine percent (right around the MLB average). With more walks, similar power (.190 ISO) and a .308 BABIP, Pence produced a .282/.346/.472 triple-slash (.351 wOBA).

At 27, Pence appeared ready to settle in as a good fantasy option with a passable walk rate, above-average power and a dash of speed (he cracked the double digits in SB each year from 2007-2009). ZiPS predicted a .350 wOBA, while CHONE (.358 wOBA) and the FANS (.363 wOBA) expected slightly more.

Instead, Pence has sputtered to a .231/.252/.343 line so far, with a feeble .254 wOBA. Those plate discipline gains haven’t carried over to 2010, as he has swung at 34.4 of pitches off the dish. Pence has worked opposing pitchers for a walk just three times in 111 plate appearances (2.7 percent). He’s putting the ball in play on the first pitch or getting behind in the count 0-1 at the highest rate of his career, with a 65.8 first pitch strike percentage (57-58% MLB average).

Pence is making contact at the highest rate of his career, but most of that additional contact is coming on those pitcher’s pitches off the plate: his percentage of contact within the zone is 89 percent (85% career average), but his O-Contact is 75.4 percent (57.5% career average). Swinging at and making contact with so many bad pitches has led to plenty of weakly hit balls put in play for Pence.

His groundball rate, 49-53 percent between 2007 and 2009, has spiked to 65.3 percent. Pence’s rate of fly balls hit has dipped to 24.2 percent (32.4% career average) and his line drive rate is 10.5 percent (15.3% career average). Ground balls, obviously, don’t lead to many extra-base hits. Grounders hit in the NL have a .250 slugging percentage in 2010, compared to .615 for fly balls and .988 for line drives. When Pence isn’t pounding the ball into the grass, he’s popping it up. His infield/fly ball percentage is 26.1 percent, compared to a 12.1% career average and the near-eight percent big league average. The University of Texas at Arlington product might have a .239 BABIP, but he’s been awful by any measure.

Pence owners should ride out this rough stretch, as his value is at its lowest point. This could be a good time to grab Pence at a serious discount, though, as he’s owned in just 65% of Yahoo leagues and has surely frustrated some of those owners who have held on to him. Of course, Pence being a buy-low candidate capable of paying dividends is predicated on his taking a plate approach that doesn’t resemble a stoner with the munchies swinging at a pinata. Pence needs to show better patience if he’s going to rebound significantly.

Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.

Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.

Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.

What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.

For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a rough start at the plate. The O’s currently have a .308 team wOBA, ranking 11th in the American League. Baltimore batters have hacked at 30 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, a mark topped only by the Blue Jays and Royals. In particular, the outfielders have made outs at a dizzying clip: Orioles’ fly catchers have a collective .300 wOBA, besting only the Athletics among Junior Circuit clubs.

Expect that mark to improve in the weeks and months to come. Matt Klaassen recently discussed the poor luck on balls put in play endured by OF/DH Luke Scott, but Scott isn’t the only O’s hitter whose underlying performance is better than the ugly line that he currently holds. Nolan Reimold sits at the Mendoza Line, but he and his fantasy owners should expect that to soon change.

Reimold, 26, is a 2005 second-round pick out of Bowling Green State who compiled a .286/.383/.521 triple-slash in the minors. Though he showed quality secondary skills (12.5 percent walk rate, .235 Isolated Power), Reimold’s ascent to the majors was slowed by a series of injuries: foot and back problems in 2006 and a strained oblique in 2007.

Reaching Baltimore in May of 2009, Reimold put up a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances during his rookie season. He popped 15 home runs with a .187 ISO, walking in 11.4 percent of his PA while posting a .365 wOBA. Injuries again crept into the conversation, as Reimold was shut down in mid-September with a left Achilles ailment that required surgery.

In 2010, the hulking 6-4 hitter was expected to be an offensive asset by ZiPS, CHONE and (especially) the FANS:

ZiPS: .273/.345/.440, .346 wOBA
CHONE: .275/.355/.477, .362 wOBA
FANS: .281/.370/.484, .372 wOBA

However, even after going deep off of David Robertson on Cinco de Mayo, Reimold owns a .200/.305/.357 line in 82 PA (.299 wOBA). The former Falcon’s Yahoo ownership has taken a dive to 26 percent. Look a little deeper, though, and it appears that there’s not much to worry about.

Reimold’s rate of free passes taken is 12.2%, up from last season. His K rate is slightly higher (24.3% in ’10, 21.5% in ’09) and his power is down a bit (.157 ISO). But neither of those changes are drastic, and given the sample size, they’re hardly alarming.

The biggest difference between Reimold’s debut and his 2010 season to date is his BABIP: .316 in 2009, and just .231 this year. Nothing in his batted ball profile has altered dramatically. He’s hitting more fly balls (which do have a lower BABIP than grounders), but those extra flys are in place of infield fly balls, the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball put in play. Point to the line drive rate if you’d like, but one person’s line drive can be another’s fly ball.

ZiPS projects Reimold for a .265/.338/.434 (.341 wOBA) performance for the rest of 2010. Personally, I’d take the over on that line if he has no further injury problems. Reimold’s misfortune provides fantasy owners with the chance to pick up a good hitter at a discount price.

Three outfielders, one for standard leagues and two for the deepest of deep leagues…

Nick Swisher | Yankees | 53% owned

Best known as a three true outcomer, the former Ohio State Buckeye has been slightly more aggressive at the plate in 2010 than in the past (68.9 Z-Swing% in ’10 vs. sub-60% from ’08-’09), which has resulted in fewer strikeouts (18.9 K%), a slightly higher BABIP (.319), and thus a better AVG (.295). More contact for Swisher means more extra base hits (.253 ISO), and with the Yankees’ lineup, more extra base hits means more runs scored and more RBI for your fantasy team. As an added bonus, he also has both 1B and OF eligibility.

Brennan Boesch | Tigers | 1%

Called up once Carlos Guillen hit the disabled list, the lefty swinging Boesch has put up a .412 wOBA while facing nothing but pitchers of the opposite hand. His dominance of righties goes back to the last few years of his minor league career, so this is nothing new. You’re not going to get much help with the OBP category, but he’ll offer a nice amount of pop and good average if managed properly. Detroit faces lefthander David Huff tomorrow night, but after that you’re in the clear until at least the middle of next week.

Marcus Thames | Yankees | 1%

Signed during the offseason to be the team’s designated southpaw masher, Thames is going to see some more plate appearances this month because of Curtis Granderson’s injury. He’s sporting a small sample .503 wOBA, with basically all of the damage coming against lefties. Thames is obviously not going to maintain that pace all year, but he’s been a lefty killer his entire career (.367 wOBA vs. .326 vs. RHP), so 2010 is nothing different. With dates coming up against Jon Lester and Dontrelle Willis, Thames could pay dividends this weekend if you pick your spots with him.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues

What do Angels third baseman Brandon Wood and Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan have in common? They share the sordid distinction of posting the worst weighted on base averages in their respective leagues (minimum 50 plate appearances). Wood, 25, trails all AL hitters with a .197 wOBA in 81 trips to the plate. The 24 year-old Coghlan, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, brings up the rear in the senior circuit with a .206 wOBA in 96 PA. What’s going on here?

Wood scuffled in a small amount of playing time with the Angels from 2007-2009, batting .192/.222/.313. Pitchers carved him up, as Wood walked just three percent of the time and posted a sub-70 percent contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Still, it seemed premature to write off the Angels’ 2003 first-round pick as a bust. With Chone Figgins Seattle-bound, Wood had a good chance to take over third base. ZiPS, the FANS and CHONE all projected a mild performance for Wood in 2010:

ZiPS: .244/.300/.422, .316 wOBA
FANS: .254/.311/.445, .327 wOBA
CHONE: .246/.309/.453, .330 wOBA

At this point, L.A. and fantasy owners alike would be downright giddy if Wood could come close to those numbers. A .245 BABIP hasn’t helped, but he has been bad by any measure. He’s batting .179/.200/.231, and he’s hacking prodigiously. In posting a 2.5 percent walk rate and whiffing 30.8 percent, Wood has chased 41 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27% MLB average). The righty batter is down in the count before you can say “Francoeur”: Wood’s 67.9 first pitch strike percentage is slightly more than 10 percentage points above the big league average. Swinging at junk so often, Wood hasn’t made much loud contact. His Isolated Power is .051.

Coghlan, meanwhile, looks at Wood’s ISO with envy. The lefty batter has yet to post an extra base hit this season. That’s right: you have the same ISO as last year’s Rookie of the Year, .000. While he wasn’t a power hitter in ’09, Coghlan posted a .321/.390/.460 triple-slash (.372 wOBA). The projection systems figured that he would regress somewhat this season (his batting average on balls in play was .365), but his bat looked comfortably above average:

ZiPS: .287/.358/.413, .345 wOBA
CHONE: .296/.371/.434, .357 wOBA
FANS: .300/.379/.422, .359 wOBA

Instead, Coghlan is slashing .182/.242/.182. While he isn’t struggling to control the zone as much as Wood, Coghlan’s plate discipline has also been poor.

During his award-winning season, Florida’s ’06 supplemental first-round pick swung at just 20.9 percent of pitches out of the zone, walking 9.4 percent. This season, his O-Swing is up to 34.8 percent and his walk rate is down to 7.3 percent. Coghlan’s K rate has climbed from 15.3% to 27.3%, and his first pitch strike percentage is 62.5% (57.3% in 2009). Considering Coghlan’s showing in 2009 and his history of controlling the zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 13.1 K%), it’s surprising that he suddenly resembles a raw rookie.

Lunging at pitches that he normally takes, Coghlan has chopped the ball into the ground 52.4 percent this year, up from 47.6 percent in ’09. His BABIP is just .250, but Coghlan has popped the ball up 21.4 percent in 2010, compared to 7.1 percent the previous season (the MLB average is around 11 percent). Those infield flies are near-automatic outs.

Wood has lost just about all of his supporters in fantasy leagues (owned in four percent of Yahoo leagues), while Coghlan has retained some good will from his 2009 campaign (43 percent). For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a .237/.291/.400 line from Wood (.305 wOBA) and a .275/.345/.391 (.332 wOBA) performance from Coghlan.

It’s hard to recommend Wood at this point, but Coghlan could be a decent buy-low option in deep mixed leagues and NL-only formats. Given his track record, it seems unlikely that he suddenly, permanently forgot how to tell a ball from a strike.

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

I’m back from Japan and have Basu-Baru pictures for your pleasure. Baseball in Japan has many of the trappings of the American version, but also includes cheerleaders and choreographed songs. Interestingly enough, the game I saw featured two Westerners at cleanup – Tony Blanco for the Chunichi Dragons and Alex Ramirez for the Yomiuri Giants. The pitchers had decent stuff, and the crowd was louder than many (most?) regular season MLB games, but overall the package was something like a AAAA game.

I digress. Time to take ownership of these outfielder rankings and change them up a bit. I will be doing them all season, as a sort of power ranking at the position. We’ll go with the FANS’ projected wOBAs (aka their upside projections) for another week.

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)

Nothing much to say here except it looks like Upton’s ankle isn’t bothering him. These guys are studs and by the end of the year, could easily all be top-five fantasy players despite playing in the outfield.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340 wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)

After the spirited Choo vs Granderson vs Sizemore comments conversation from the last time we updated these rankings, it’s only natural that we find a way to put them all in the same tier where they belong. Nelson Cruz is absolutely on fire, but his BABIP (.357) and K rate (24.1%) together suggest that the batting average should regress to his career norm. Granderson is still having trouble with lefties, but if he continues to bash righties to this extend, he’ll stay out of the next tier.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)

Manny is actually showing that he’s still got something left and with another tater or two could even join the next tier. That said, his missed games will keep the old(er) man back a little. Those same missed games should come into play with Hamilton eventually too. Lind’s power has taken a slight step back, but it’s early going and all it looks like he needs to do is loft the ball a little more (33.3% FB this year, 36.8% last year).

Missing Something?
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)

Werth reminded us that he has some injury issues by missing time with hip soreness, but has otherwise played well. The older Upton is actually playing about as well as can be expected, and in leagues that don’t use batting average, he may yet prove to be an elite option. Ethier will have his supporters, but his fly ball rate already fell, and his power pace should fall with it. The batting average should be strong this year, though, and he’s still a solid option.

Upside to Join the Top
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.360 wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.375 wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.326 wOBA)
Jason Kubel (.370 wOBA)

Outfielders are a tough position to handicap because of the sheer numbers, which also won’t allow me to go too deep. By highlighting some guys that could join the elite with the right years, we can delve a little deeper. So, while Shane Victorino is a fine option in the outfield, McCutchen is stealing bases at a pace (five so far) that would outpace the Flyin’ Hawaiian should it keep up. Bourn has shown the same plus plus speed. Should Quentin stay healthy, and Kubel prove that he can keep his slugging percentage over .500 year-in and year-out, they would join the power elite. So far, so good.

This post comes to you all the way from Tokyo town. I just flew here today (yesterday? tomorrow?) and boy are my arms tired. (badum-ching!) As you can tell, it’s been a looong day. Let me quickly get to a couple waiver wire ideas before I pass out.

Shaun Marcum
Our shallow league special won’t be on the wire long, but if you missed out, don’t worry. There’s plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Mr. Marcum. First, even before he missed all of 2009 with elbow surgery, he hasn’t been the picture of health. His major league high is 159 major league innings in a season, and 168 total innings in a season. He doesn’t have a nice K/9 (7.13 career) or ground ball rate (40.3% career), and though his career ERA looks okay (3.95), his career FIP is much less interesting (4.81). That’s probably because he’s somehow managed to put together 400+ innings with a .273 BABIP. In his first start he had a sparkling .068 BABIP even. If it wasn’t such an obvious idea, actually, it seems that the best move here would be to sell high. Here’s a bet his ERA ends up in the low 4s where it belongs with his peripherals.

Dexter Fowler
It takes a little deeper bench in order to take advantage of the fact that Fowler is being summarily dropped in many leagues, but the reward is there for the patient manager. While Seth Smith is definitely a nice pickup in most leagues since he’s getting the lion’s share of at-bats by taking on righties, Fowler is not yet chopped liver. Obviously, the team is looking at Fowler’s nice .322/.374/.470 major league line against lefties (and his correspondingly putrid .228/.343/.353 line against righties) and making what they believe to be the best short-term move for the team. The problem is that this split has only come in 461 total major league at-bats (which is not a significant level for splits like these), and his minor league splits were non-existent (.843 OPS vs lefties, .859 OPS vs righties). Expect Fowler’s upside to will out and force some sort of move by management (Brad Hawpe, I’m looking at you), and in the meantime, just put him on your bench and slot him in against lefties. You’ll enjoy both short- and long-term return.

Scott Downs
The deep league special is a speculative play based on an incredibly tiny sample size seen in one light. Yes, Jason Frasor blew one save. And yes, it’s one inning. And yes, he probably won’t be removed from the closer’s role in Toronto today. On the other hand, Downs has been amazingly consistent for three years now (FIPs around 3.33 all three years), and managers love consistency. Compare Frasor’s range on his FIPs (2.99 to 4.55) and you’ll see that it’s not at all assured who’s going to have the better year in that pen this year. Throw in the fact that Frasor has been linked to the Twins in trade rumors, and Downs looks like a good bet if you’re a-speculatin’.

During the season, we will update these rankings based on new information which will hopefully help you determine good trade targets and stay on top of each position. This week, we’ll take a look at some springs so you can see who is on a roll going into the season.

The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)

There’s not enough news here to justify moving players around, but there are a couple things to mention. Justin Upton sprained his ankle last week and got dropped on some draft boards because of some early speculation that it might dampen his speed. Well, all he missed was one game and he’s currently hitting .366/.456/.714 and is a John Dewan candidate for a ‘breakout’ season because of that slugging percentage. If last year wasn’t his breakout season, you’re looking at a perennial top-five player in fantasy baseball. Upton’s also been the subject of some speculation and comparison over at TMI (insider), FWIW (LOL OMG).

It’s also worth mentioning that it’s ‘All Systems Go’ for Grady’s Ladies in the Cleveland bleachers this year. The good-looking coffee-cup-wearing outfielder they love so much is batting .378/.521/.595 with two stolen bases (against no caught stealings). A healthy year will remind people why Sizemore was a first round pick in the past, and one year he’ll have a lucky BABIP year and have a great batting average to boot.

The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)

Adam Lind’s skeptics might point to his poor spring (.214/.267/.429) as a sign that Lind won’t repeat his strong 2009, but it’s early going. He didn’t always put up .200+ ISOs in the minor leagues, and perhaps one could use that as evidence that his power is suspect. That camp can walk back his power projections, but I prefer to split the difference and like CHONE as the ‘floor’ projection (.293/.350/.502) despite the poor spring. Really, it’s only forty at-bats.

The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)

Because of his hot spring (.420/.455/.700), Josh Hamilton could be on the cusp of joining the group ahead of him. Maybe – if only he hadn’t suffered from two injuries in the spring. It is, of course, the injuries that keep people from drafting Hamilton. The good news is that these injuries probably could not have been avoided. Madison Bumgarner hit Hamilton in the hand, and he only missed a couple games with a hand contusion because it was only Madison Bumgarner (badum-ching!). Then Hamilton got a toothache. It seems ridiculous to type these words, but Hamilton’s got a litany of injuries that seem just as bizarre and it all adds up to something. Maybe. I’d focus on the nice spring numbers and draft him low for a bounce-back season.