Buster Posey and Jason Heyward garnered most of the attention among the NL rookie crop last season and rightfully so, but Mike Stanton of the Marlins was damn impressive in his own right. His 396 plate appearance debut featured a studly .248 ISO (15th highest among the 238 batters with at least 350 PA) and 22 homers, numbers that are pretty historic. The only other players with an ISO that high in that many plate appearances in their age 20 season: Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Alex Rodriguez, Bob Horner, and Frank Robinson. What does that mean for Stanton in 2011, specifically fantasy-wise?

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It looks like the Rays are close to an agreement with Johnny Damon. While the move isn’t a front-line kind of thing, there are some slight positives that might make the player interesting in most fantasy leagues. As with the player, though, each possible reason for optimism comes with huge asterisks.

Though he isn’t the most powerful outfielder, Damon’s .130 ISO last year was a precipitous drop from his .207 the year before and was slightly below his near-league average .149 career ISO. The difference meant he didn’t hit double-digit home runs for the first time since 2001. We shouldn’t overstate the case for his new home park, though, as they treat left-handers virtually identically. Left-handers enjoyed a 90 park factor for home runs in Detroit, and an 89 in Tampa – but his overall offense may fare a tiny bit better, as lefty wOBAs are suppressed by four percent in Detroit, and three in Tampa. A few more doubles would treat his batting average better, at least.

Now, the lineup around him also provides some reason for optimism. The Rays scored 51 more runs than the Tigers last year. An increase around 7% to Damon’s runs and RBI would have been welcome, since he also failed to score 90 for the first time since 1998. But this possible positive is also mitigated by a negative. The Rays’ lineup famously lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena over the offseason. Even without “chicken littling” the Rays’ chances to be competitive in 2010, it seems the two offenses may be closer together this season.

Last, we come to Damon’s speed. He hasn’t been a true speed daemon since the early aughts, and he only lost one stolen base off of 2009’s total, but his speed score has stayed above average (5.7 last year, 5.0 is average). He’s also stolen 23 bases in the last two years, against only one caught stealing. Here, the lineup effect may actually be somewhat significant – the Rays stole a league-leading 172 bases last year, the tigers only 69. It’s not too much of a stretch to expect a few more stolen bases next year.

All in all, the effect will be muted by the mere fact that Damon is another year older and should decline some accordingly. That isn’t to say, however, that he might not hit few more doubles, cross the plate a couple more times, and steal a handful more bases. The underlying true talent could decline, and yet his fantasy stats could see an uptick. If Damon hits .280 with a .360 OBP, double-digit home runs and twenty stolen bases, would he be useful in your league?

A bunch of recent minor signings and news items probably don’t deserve full posts but might be relevant in deeper leagues. Let’s clear them out!

Jose Arredondo is healthy
Arredondo is finally good to go after a two-year battle with his elbow. You might wonder who this dude is, but remember his excellent 2008 with the Angels (3.10 FIP), when he was good enough to close for most teams. And then remember how bad Francisco Cordero is (4.53 xFIP last year), and you’ll know that Arredondo may just vulture a save or two this year. Sure, Aroldis Chapman is starting in the pen, too, and is in line in front of Arredondo, but he’s also got the ability to start. File this name away, at the very worst he may be useful in deeper leagues that use holds.

Shane Victorino was called out by Charlie Manuel
While Manuel may not be right to call out his player publicly, the fact that he mentioned that Victorino was swinging for the fences too often was interesting. Victorino had the worst BABIP of his career last year, and the highest fly-ball rate. These things are related, since the BABIP on fly balls is poor. Give Victorino a few home runs less and push his batting average a few ticks higher if he’s listening to his manager. Either way, he’s a decent bounce-back pick, and always shows a little power and a good amount of speed. Under-rated if you ask me.

Chien-Ming Wang to be ready for spring training
He hasn’t been useful for anything other than Wang jokes since about 2007 (or 2008 if you want to be generous), but Wang says his shoulder feels good and that he’d like to compete for a role in the rotation in spring training. Carlos Silva had some similar statistics and came to the weaker league and performed well – this Wang may not be done Chunging yet. Don’t forget about him in your deeper leagues, even if his lack of strikeouts makes his upside a little less palatable.

There’s nothing more exciting than a breakout star both in reality and in fantasy, and that’s what Carlos Gonzalez was last season. He took home the National League batting title with a .336 AVG, finished second in the circuit with 117 RBI, third with 111 runs scored, and fourth with 34 homers. Because that wasn’t enough, he chipped in 26 stolen bases as well, tied for eleventh most in the league. Players that can impact all five traditional scoring categories are rare breeds, and that’s why CarGo figures to go in the first five-ish picks of drafts this spring.

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A quick look at a post by Jack Moore at RotoHardball shows the benefit a change in lineup can make. In short, the difference between batting second and batting fifth can be as much as .33 plate appearances a game, or around 50 a season.

A quick look at the nearest newswire will show you that the Red Sox have managed to revamp their lineup in just a few short days. At issue is what the new lineup will look like, especially since the team is now so lefty-heavy. It may not mean the difference between a good and bad season, but 50 plate appearances is not something to sneeze at.

In the last week, Buster Olney famously submitted his new lineup and then Carson Cistulli updated it by using Baseball Musing’s lineup optimizer tool. These two lineups are pretty different, but there is one similarity worth discussing further from a fantasy angle.

Yes, both the stat-head lineup and the traditional lineup feature Jacoby Ellsbury in the nine-hole. Maybe one focused on his 6.7% career walk rate, and the other was looking at Ellsbury as the ‘second leadoff man,’ but the results were clear enough that they strongly suggest that’s where Ellsbury will end up. That’s not a good thing for those projecting a bounce-back for Ellsbury.

It’s not that he can’t have success at the bottom of the order. It’s just that we have to temper the plate appearances. In 2009, he racked up 693 plate appearances – and that would make the Bill James’ projection (674 plate appearances) seem reasonable. However, Ellsbury had 504 plate appearances in the leadoff spot that year, where the average player (per Tango’s The Book) has 4.83 plate appearances per game. In the nine hole, Ellsbury could expect to see 3.90 plate appearances per game. That’s almost a full plate appearance per game.

Let’s take that .93 PA per game away from his 2009 numbers then. That’s a full 150 plate appearances fewer, meaning Ellsbury might hope to approach 540 or 550 plate appearances should he play in the nine hole most days.

But we also know that this figure represents the best possible upside.

Judging from Chris Cwik’s column on Friday, Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz may be splitting some time in the outfield and at DH, provided the tam does not move one of the group in the next few weeks.

After considering this group, the best probable scenario has Cameron as more or less a fourth outfielder and Ortiz as a platoon DH. Ortiz did put up a .268 wOBA against lefties last year, his third straight year of below-average work against southpaws. That’s 200 PAs that could go to someone else next year. Drew has been injured off and on the last few years, and usually ends up around 550 PAs, which is about 100 PAs short of a full ride in right field and his position in the lineup.

Would Mike Cameron be okay with 300 PAs? That would allow Ellsbury to enjoy 550 plate appearances in center field. The team says that they rate Ellsbury’s defense as above-average, and Cameron’s defense fell off, but short-sample UZRs are not so useful. If the two of them instead split the 850 plate appearances – meaning everyone stays healthy and Cameron and Ellsbury are essentially sharing center and the leftover PAs in right and at DH – then you’re looking at 425 PAs for Ellsbury.

This is no science, but you’re looking at a range between 400 and 550 plate appearances for Ellsbury most likely, and a risk that he gets only 350 or so as the backup. That means the real best case scenario – 550 plate appearances – would have Ellsbury with 153 hits, 83 runs and 48 steals using Bill James projections. That could be helpful if his draft spot drops, but the risk – 350 plate appearances – is that he ends up with 97 hits, 53 runs and 30 stolen bases.

And those projections are all using Bill James’ numbers, oft thought to be the rosiest of the mainstream projections.

Edit: On Saturday, this came through the interwebs:

Red Sox manager Terry Francona expects to bat Carl Crawford second or third in 2011, with Jacoby Ellsbury leading off.
“I’ll sit down with Carl, I’ll sit down with Pedey,” Francona said. “Obviously, he’s going to hit somewhere in the top of the order, second or third. But we want to have some balance, as much as we can, with Adrian and Youk following and David (Ortiz) and J.D. (Drew). There’s some things to think about.” We doubt Pedroia will be dropped in the order, so we tentatively expect him to hit second and Pedroia to bat third.

There’s a lot of risk here. I’m not even sure that more information in Spring Training will remove that uncertainty. Draft Ellsbury at your own peril.

Adam Jones always seems to get a ton of love from someone on draft day, then never lives up to the hype and disappoints. However, his transition from 2008 to 2009 was impressive, so he hasn’t always let his fans down.

After a .277-19-10 season in 2009 in which his HR/FB% was ridiculously high, Jones made some adjustments to his swing and ended 2010 with a .284-19-7 line. While that’s a pretty solid line for a 24-year old, is this what his peak will be?

Jones put up impressive power numbers while in the Mariners organization, and it may finally be transferring over. However, his problems making contact will not only plague his batting average, but limit his power production as well. Some players can get away with contact problems and still hit a ton of homers, but they hit far more fly balls and are much stronger than Jones is.

I know some owners have considered Jones a 30-30 candidate in the past, based on his raw physical tools. I’ve always seen him as someone with a ceiling closer to 25-15, basing my opinion on his performance we’ve seen, more than his physical potential.

So, you tell me: are owners tired of waiting for another big step from Jones, or are they going to give him another shot? His drop in HR/FB% with steady home run production could mean better days are ahead, but will the Average Joe know that?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Since you guys really seemed to have liked the ADP Crowdsourcing idea, we’re going to march forward and do a couple every week. Today, I’m going to tackle Jay Bruce, and the results for both Morrow and Bruce will be up tomorrow for your viewing pleasure.

Jay Bruce has always been an interesting case, at least for me. When he showed up on the scene in 2008, he showcased great power for a 21-year old, hitting over 20 dingers in just over 400 ABs. While his strikeout rate wasn’t good at the time, it wasn’t awful for a young power hitter getting his first taste of big league action. He also showed a good line drive rate, and his walk rate wasn’t terrible, either.

In an injury shortened 2009, Bruce left many of us in awe as he hit more homers in fewer plate appearances. And while his batting average was bad, it wasn’t due as much to strikeouts, as he improved his contact skills immensely. Thanks to all of these factors, as well as his young age, he had quite a bit of hype surrounding him coming into 2010 drafts.

His 2010 was disappointing on some levels, as his home run rate actually dropped and his strikeout rate rose. Yet, he still hit 25 homers and hit .281, as well as keeping his contact rates steady. There are still a lot of good signs that he’ll have a very bright future, including the fact that he’ll still only be 24 when next season begins.

I have no clue how owners are valuing him coming into 2011, so I need your help. Have the masses grown tired of waiting for Bruce’s breakout, or are they willing to give him one more shot? Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your answer, click here.

A couple of weeks back, I was talking to the great Carson Cistulli, and he posed an interesting question: Peter Bourjos, or Juan Pierre? Now, because of the nature of the conversation, I had to answer on the spot without thoroughly researching the topic (I’m not going to tell you what I originally answered quite yet, because I don’t want to spoil the punchline). However, it was such a good question that could be very relevant come next season, it deserves to have a bit more time put into it.

This past season, Pierre did what he’s always done when he has a starting job: be a fantastic fantasy asset. At 32-years of age, Pierre set a career high in stolen bases with 68. He also showed some of the best contact skills of his career, with a whiff rate of a mere 2%. While his contact skills stayed intact, Pierre had trouble hitting line drives, instead hitting the ball on the ground and lowering his batting average to a .275 mark. And, as always, you aren’t going to get any production in the RBI or HR categories from Pierre, but he did score over 95 runs for the White Sox.

On the other side of the debate, Bourjos was called up by the Angels at the beginning of August, with the hopes that he’d provide good defense in centerfield and be an offensive spark plug. While he wasn’t a spark plug, he sure was offensive. He barely reached the Mendoza Line in just under 200 trips to the plate, thanks to a bad strikeout rate and a lack of anything close to consistent line drives. However, he did steal 10 bases in his limited time in the bigs, getting caught three times in the process.

Bourjos also displayed some surprising power, hitting 19 homers in 648 total trips to the plate between Triple-A and the majors. The power production was something new for Bourjos, but it could continue to be in play as he matures. However, his power may limit his ability to hit for a high average, as he put the ball in the air far too often for a player with terrific speed. If he levels out his stroke a bit, his .228 BABIP is bound to skyrocket.

At the time, I told Carson that I’d rather have Juan Pierre, because he’s a known quantity who should continue to provide consistent production for at least two more seasons. After looking at Bourjos and Pierre a little more closely, I’m going to stick with Pierre for the time being. I’d like to see what Bourjos does with a larger sample, mainly to see if he works on leveling his swing instead of going for bombs (which Sam Miller of the OC Register thinks he will). If he can do just that, I might have a change of heart.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I continue my look at some of your ideas.

Travis Snider
Snider made some nice strides on the field this year, but he had a hard time staying in the lineup. He improved his contact rate, started to hit lots of liners, and still showed us that he can hit for power. He’s really young (will be 23 next season), and I think he’ll continue to get better next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.335, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. I don’t know if he plays a full season, but I’m not banking on it. He’s a nice risk to take, and a good piece to keep in your possession.

Jay Bruce
I thought he was going to hit 30+ homers this season, as did most people, and his ADP reflected that. He ended up doing pretty well for himself, and a big August and September will drive his value up once again. He has the potential to consistently hit 30 bombs, but please remember that he’s only 23 at the moment.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.365, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s only a year or two from putting it all together and getting picked in the third or fourth round.

Desmond Jennings
Everyone thinks that he’ll be handed the LF job once Crawford signs elsewhere this winter, and there’s no reason to think otherwise. His value comes down to how you think he’ll adjust to major league pitching, because we know he can run if he just reaches base.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.340, 5 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. Personally, I don’t like keeping guys just for steals, but I’m not going to let my prejudice tell dictate my response here.

Andre Ethier
The Dodgers outfielder started out hot, but had some injury troubles and cooled off later in the year. He still ended the year with over 20 bombs, a good average and respectable counting stats. He’s right in the middle of his peak, so now’s the time to own him.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.365, 28 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. Odds are that you got him in the seventh round, and that price is right. It’s no bargain, but you’re not overpaying.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part three of your requests.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Carlos Beltran
Coming back from offseason knee trouble, Beltran showed some promise that could leave owners hopeful heading into 2011. With an extra offseason of rest, could Beltran actually return to his old self? A move out of center field could help the former star, and who knows if the new Mets’ management will do the right thing.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 14 HR, 8 SB
Verdict: Cut. I’d rather have an outfielder without knee problems. Don’t buy into his name value.

Colby Rasmus
I was pretty high on Rasmus coming into the season, picking him up as a bench option in as many leagues as possible. If he wasn’t drafted, he was grabbed off the waiver wire early on thanks to a hot September. He slowed down, and Tony La Russa isn’t his biggest fan, but he still managed over 500 plate appearances for the second straight year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 25 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. Don’t trick yourself into thinking he’s a .300/30/30 guy, though. He never will be.

Drew Stubbs
Stubbs is a classic example of what most owners view as a replacement level fantasy player. He’s always on the waiver wire, usually owned by a few different teams, because he’s such a tantalizing talent. His counting stats are great, and I think he’s going to be a 30/30 guy at some point in his career. His strikeout rate is just plain ugly, so he’ll have to put some work in if he wants to become more of a complete player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.340, 25 HR, 35 SB
Verdict: Keep. His power and speed combo is too good to ignore.

Jacoby Ellsbury
After being viewed as a heel by most Red Sox fans, Ellsbury could very well be in a different uniform when 2011 begins. After stealing 70 bases in 2009, Ellsbury followed it up with 7 steals this season. He still has a ton of speed, and could easily swipe 50+ bases again next season.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 40 SB
Verdict: Cut. If you wanted Ellsbury this year, you had to take him in the second or third round. I’m not willing to pay that price again.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.