ADP Crowdsourcing: Adam Jones
Adam Jones always seems to get a ton of love from someone on draft day, then never lives up to the hype and disappoints. However, his transition from 2008 to 2009 was impressive, so he hasn’t always let his fans down.
After a .277-19-10 season in 2009 in which his HR/FB% was ridiculously high, Jones made some adjustments to his swing and ended 2010 with a .284-19-7 line. While that’s a pretty solid line for a 24-year old, is this what his peak will be?
Jones put up impressive power numbers while in the Mariners organization, and it may finally be transferring over. However, his problems making contact will not only plague his batting average, but limit his power production as well. Some players can get away with contact problems and still hit a ton of homers, but they hit far more fly balls and are much stronger than Jones is.
I know some owners have considered Jones a 30-30 candidate in the past, based on his raw physical tools. I’ve always seen him as someone with a ceiling closer to 25-15, basing my opinion on his performance we’ve seen, more than his physical potential.
So, you tell me: are owners tired of waiting for another big step from Jones, or are they going to give him another shot? His drop in HR/FB% with steady home run production could mean better days are ahead, but will the Average Joe know that?
Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I know it says standard 5×5 scoring but my league counts walks and I can’t get past his 5% walk rate 😛
Torii Hunter clone.
In Torii’s 2000 season he had 5 HRs and 44 RBIs.
In Torii’s 2001 season he had 27 HRs and 92 RBIs.
Hope you were giving props to Adam Jones, otherwise you look like a fool. Also Torii was 25 when he started the 2000 season.
Though Hunter’s only hit over 30 once, at age 31.
Hunter’s high for SBs was 23.
We have to remember that he is still technically very young. He is a few years away from his probable peak at around ages 28-33. So it isn’t unheard of that he will improve to have peaks around 30 HRs, strong defense, and some steals. The steals are what is up for question though. Although he does have very good speed which allows him to chase down most balls and expand his range into LF and RF, he hasn’t quite translated that into actual SBs. It seems to be partly timidity and partly a previous managerial decision. Only Roberts seemed to have the green light to go at anytime he saw fit. Under Showalter, it is yet to be seen. Going forward until further notice, for fantasy reasons, I think you have to think of Jones as a possible SB threat, but not likely, for now.
Though with a player like this, if he plays with better bats around him, he can improve in a hurry. Much like many of the Orioles young batters, I think a lot of their improvements depends on their acquiring a legitimate big bat, or not. Much of Jones’ quick improvement in ’09 had to do with him batting at #2, in front of veterans who were known commodities, and were being pitched around. Much of those stats came in the first half. When pitchers stopped pitching to Jones, and he evened out, and has since been dealing with his need to lay off balls that have become more frequent. He did show some significant improvement in that in ’09, but it is an ongoing process. I think it’s not unreasonable to presume that he moderately improves his strikeouts and judgment, which should also translate in another year of improvement.
Nick Markakis 2.0
Not really.
Markakis is a good player with solid 5 tools more or less, but they are very different in terms of their speed and batting eye. Markakis from Day 1 was a very strong batting eye. Jones is not. It’s obviously his weak point that he needs to work on. As far as speed, even though Markakis has good speed, he isn’t the same class of speed as Jones. Both have strong arms, defense, and strong power potential.
I will always give a shot to a player with Adam Jones’s skill set. If not for his production but for the opportunities that might arise from streaks or any such good luck in my favor. That said I choose other outfielders known to give me steady production in the HRs, RBIs and BA categories (SB if Juan Pierre is the best option left). He’s only 25 and the results should pay off soon.
Steroids aren’t the answer.
Touche.