Could Johnny Damon Enjoy Tampa Bay?

It looks like the Rays are close to an agreement with Johnny Damon. While the move isn’t a front-line kind of thing, there are some slight positives that might make the player interesting in most fantasy leagues. As with the player, though, each possible reason for optimism comes with huge asterisks.

Though he isn’t the most powerful outfielder, Damon’s .130 ISO last year was a precipitous drop from his .207 the year before and was slightly below his near-league average .149 career ISO. The difference meant he didn’t hit double-digit home runs for the first time since 2001. We shouldn’t overstate the case for his new home park, though, as they treat left-handers virtually identically. Left-handers enjoyed a 90 park factor for home runs in Detroit, and an 89 in Tampa – but his overall offense may fare a tiny bit better, as lefty wOBAs are suppressed by four percent in Detroit, and three in Tampa. A few more doubles would treat his batting average better, at least.

Now, the lineup around him also provides some reason for optimism. The Rays scored 51 more runs than the Tigers last year. An increase around 7% to Damon’s runs and RBI would have been welcome, since he also failed to score 90 for the first time since 1998. But this possible positive is also mitigated by a negative. The Rays’ lineup famously lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena over the offseason. Even without “chicken littling” the Rays’ chances to be competitive in 2010, it seems the two offenses may be closer together this season.

Last, we come to Damon’s speed. He hasn’t been a true speed daemon since the early aughts, and he only lost one stolen base off of 2009’s total, but his speed score has stayed above average (5.7 last year, 5.0 is average). He’s also stolen 23 bases in the last two years, against only one caught stealing. Here, the lineup effect may actually be somewhat significant – the Rays stole a league-leading 172 bases last year, the tigers only 69. It’s not too much of a stretch to expect a few more stolen bases next year.

All in all, the effect will be muted by the mere fact that Damon is another year older and should decline some accordingly. That isn’t to say, however, that he might not hit few more doubles, cross the plate a couple more times, and steal a handful more bases. The underlying true talent could decline, and yet his fantasy stats could see an uptick. If Damon hits .280 with a .360 OBP, double-digit home runs and twenty stolen bases, would he be useful in your league?