ADP Crowdsourcing: Jay Bruce
Since you guys really seemed to have liked the ADP Crowdsourcing idea, we’re going to march forward and do a couple every week. Today, I’m going to tackle Jay Bruce, and the results for both Morrow and Bruce will be up tomorrow for your viewing pleasure.
Jay Bruce has always been an interesting case, at least for me. When he showed up on the scene in 2008, he showcased great power for a 21-year old, hitting over 20 dingers in just over 400 ABs. While his strikeout rate wasn’t good at the time, it wasn’t awful for a young power hitter getting his first taste of big league action. He also showed a good line drive rate, and his walk rate wasn’t terrible, either.
In an injury shortened 2009, Bruce left many of us in awe as he hit more homers in fewer plate appearances. And while his batting average was bad, it wasn’t due as much to strikeouts, as he improved his contact skills immensely. Thanks to all of these factors, as well as his young age, he had quite a bit of hype surrounding him coming into 2010 drafts.
His 2010 was disappointing on some levels, as his home run rate actually dropped and his strikeout rate rose. Yet, he still hit 25 homers and hit .281, as well as keeping his contact rates steady. There are still a lot of good signs that he’ll have a very bright future, including the fact that he’ll still only be 24 when next season begins.
I have no clue how owners are valuing him coming into 2011, so I need your help. Have the masses grown tired of waiting for Bruce’s breakout, or are they willing to give him one more shot? Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your answer, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
You all will laugh at this comment, but a year from now, you’ll look back at and say “Wow, Chris was right.”
Jay Bruce will be a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011.
I wouldn’t laugh at that, because it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. That’s the problem with Bruce, we don’t seem to have any idea what he’ll do.
I said Round 9–assuming a 12-team non-keeper mixed league. Chris seems a bit too confident regarding Brucey Bruce; Jay is still young and his statistics indicate that he still has quite a bit of maturing to do as a hitter. The tools are there and he COULD put everything together in 2011, but I think that most people are going to be too scared of the low average to take him in the 7th round or earlier. If I was in a keeper league, I’d easily rank Bruce in the top 40 overall, though.
After hitting .280 this year, are most people going to be scared by his batting average? I don’t think they will, but that’s just me.
You are right, I forgot how hot he was down the stretch, I might bump up my vote up to Round 7 then.
I think the real problem with Bruce is HE doesn’t have any idea what he can and will do. Seems lost when he talks and I am sure Dusty is not giving him the guidance he needs/deserves as a potential young superstar.
Dynasty league, 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG. Would you rather have Scherzer or Bruce?
Bruce.
JAY BRUCE WILL BE A SUPER STAR.
Fun fact, Mr. Bruce hit 16 HR in his last 113 AB.
where are the morrow results?
ADP currently 92 on Mock Draft Central
FWIW, Bruce’s injury in 2009 was a broken wrist that he suffered in July. Most Reds fans I knew didn’t expect Bruce to have much power early in the year as wrist injuries usually take a good year to heal completely (if they ever heal completely). It appears that it was 13 months for Bruce before he regained his power stroke, as almost exactly 13 months later, he went on a tear and hit 15 HR in his last 121 PA.
Funny thing is that was also around the time when the Reds traded for Jim Edmonds, who had some conversations with Bruce on the bench, and so the media basically gives all of the credit to Edmonds for Bruce’s turnaround.
Either way, I wouldn’t be too concerned about his power drop. That should have been expected after the wrist injury. He may not reach full superstar status in 2011, but he’s going to be good and he’s obviously made progress every year in the big leagues, which is a good sign for his future.
Best young player in baseball.
Bruce’s K% still scares me, but I also agree that 2011 is going to be his breakout season. Bruce has a terrible start to 2010, with a .146/.217/.171 on April 17th. From that point on, Bruce hit .292 with a .521 SLG. This is similar to Dustin Pedroia’s 2007 season (same age as Bruce in 2010). Pedrioa was .147/.294/.224 on May 1. Pedrioa finished the year with a .317 avg and .442 SLG. Pedroia then had an MVP 2008.
I don’t see Bruce all of sudden stop striking out, but his power more than makes up for it, and I think Bruce will go .300 35HR 120RBI in 2011.
That, or I will get burned drafting him again…
Will they move Bruce up in the lineup? I can’t see his numbers changing significantly if he’s batting 5 or 6th in the lineup.
I think where a player is in the batting order gets overanalyzed. Yes if he say he were to be moved from 6th to 5th in the lineup it might add a few rbi and runs. But really, if he adds say 5rbi/5runs is that really going to change your opinion on him? Runs/RBI’s are much harder to predict in general for position players anyways compared to avg/hrs/sbs imo.
I believe Bruce is trending in the right direction. He hit .277 (.308 BABip) in 179 PA against lefties last season, with an .899 OPS (actually higher than his OPS against righties). He hit 12 home runs in half the plate appearances against lefties (13 against righties).
That’s progression.
In ’09, he hit .210 with a .643 OPS and 2 HR in 112 plate appearances against lefties (.229/20/.825 vs. righties). I don’t want to be overly optimistic, but I think he’s making tremendous strides as a hitter.
Or, maybe he’s just waiting to crash back down to earth against left handed pitching. I guess we’ll see.
many of you seem to be forgetting his BABIP was .334 last season. his BA will not be able to remain around the .280 range. it is due to regress.