Projecting Carlos Gonzalez
There’s nothing more exciting than a breakout star both in reality and in fantasy, and that’s what Carlos Gonzalez was last season. He took home the National League batting title with a .336 AVG, finished second in the circuit with 117 RBI, third with 111 runs scored, and fourth with 34 homers. Because that wasn’t enough, he chipped in 26 stolen bases as well, tied for eleventh most in the league. Players that can impact all five traditional scoring categories are rare breeds, and that’s why CarGo figures to go in the first five-ish picks of drafts this spring.
At the time of this writing, 46 fan projections have been submitted for Gonzalez (click here to submit yours). The FanGraphs faithful have him hitting .304/.358/.544 with 30 homers, 105 RBI, 99 runs scored, and 25 steals next season, production that’s down a tad from 2010 but still qualifies as elite. For what it’s worth, Bill James has him at .308/.357/.545 with 28 HR, 101 RBI, 101 R, and 22 SB, so everyone’s pretty much in agreement about what they think he’ll do next season. As good as CarGo is and as good as we think he’ll be going forward, there are some warts in his game worth mentioning…
He made sweet, sweet love to Coors Field last season.
At his home ballpark, CarGo hit a whopping .380/.425/.737 in 2010, a .487 wOBA that trailing only Josh Hamilton’s .506 mark among hitters in their own park. Just eight of his 34 homers came away from Coors, unsurprising when you consider that he produced 60.2% non-ground balls at home and just 54.1% on the road. Can’t hit homers if you’re beating the ball into the dirt.
The Coors Field effect is nothing new here. Troy Tulowitzki has a considerable home/road split (.440/.377 wOBA), as has Todd Helton for most of his career. It’s just the way it is. I don’t buy for a second that 287 road plate appearances in 2010 is enough to tell us that CarGo is a product of Coors that would be not much more than a slightly above average hitters elsewhere.
He doesn’t like to walk.
Gonzalez drew just 32 unintentional walks in 587 plate appearances last season, or one for every 18.3 trips to the plate. He offered at 37% of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone, 18th most in the game. His OBP will be tied rather closely to his AVG, so keep that in mind if you’re in an on-base league.
He can swing and miss with the best of ’em.
CarGo whiffed on 11.1% of his swings in 2010, essentially matching his 11.5% career mark (yes, I know it’s a brief career). It’s a rate that was on par with noted hackers like Jeff Francoeur, Vladimir Guerrero, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Strikeouts are fine if he makes up for it in other facets of the game, which Gonzalez certainly does, but I’m always skeptical of players that don’t walk often and swing and miss a bunch. That’s not to say he’ll turn into Frenchy 2.0, but pitchers are going to give him less to hit going forward if they know he’ll chase.
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The Rockies have a pair of bonafide, young superstars on their hands, and both CarGo and Tulo figure to come off the board early when drafts begin in a few weeks. The projections favor Gonzalez going forward and there’s very little reason not too. I wouldn’t obsess about the Coors Field factor, but part of me is slightly concerned about the lack of plate discipline. Maybe I’m just paranoid after watching Pablo Sandoval swing through pitches at his eyes all season long…
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
The walk rate will scare me off. Anything below a 6% walk rate scares me off.
I agree that his walk rate was horrible, and that he seems to be the prototypical BABIP-inflated hacker. But, looking at his monthly splits, the months when he was hitting the best were also the months where he posted an above average BB%. It wouldn’t be the first time a hacker developed plate discipline partway into his career.
Even if his BABIP drops, if he continues his “trend” of lowering his K%, and develops a 9% BB%, then he could post a higher OBP/wOBA this year with a lower average.
Just by watching him play all last season, it seemed like he developed more patience towards the end of the season, I haven’t looked at his splits, but that observation makes me feel better about him learning to take bad pitches more frequently.
I’m terrified of him turning out to be the athletic version Pablo Sandoval next year, but even a .280 AVG with 25 – 30 HR’s 90 – 100 R/RBI and 20+ SB puts him up there.
Jeff,
Normally, I’m right there with you but the power/speed is totally legit. Reminds me of the old Alfonso Soriano package. I think the talent completely overrides the walk rate. He’s very aggressive and wants to crush every pitch which is what I want from my fantasy outfielders. He’s not hitting .336 again, but .300? I watched him a lot as he was carrying my team and I can tell you the guy can hit anything out, not just fastballs.
If I can get this guy in the 2nd round, I’m celebrating.
Derek
I don’t think there’s a chance he lasts into the second round. I’ve seen him go as high as third in some mocks.
I was thinking Kemp as a comparison, but Soriano is a perfect comp. The key is determining when Gonzalez will fall off the planet if he can’t develop some plate discipline. I just can’t see reaching for him with other options available.
For what it is worth – Cargo did post the most walks by month in August and September.
I live in Colorado and watch the Rockies a fair amount. It seems his patience is developing a bit – over the course of the season he seemed to wait for better pitches. He will never be a 100 walk a season guy, but I think he will be better then Soriano with respect to plate discipline.
Should have read your comments before I posted my reply. It’s good to know I wasn’t alone in my observations. Rox will be a fun team to watch again next season, too bad I just moved to the DC area!
The Nationals are fun to watch too. I’m even a little serious. I go see 10-15 games a year.
I’m actually excited by them and Baltimore this year. Young energetic teams brimming with potential. As long as the tickets aren’t outrageously priced I’m sold!
Every time the nickname CarGo is used, I will state how I feel. CarGo is a bad nickname.
It’s the lazy nickname syndrome. First syllable of 1st name and 1st syllable of last name mashed together. Or we could just call him Carlos Gonzalez?
CarGOD is more appropriate!
Brad Hawpe gave him the nickname “Little Pony” last year.
I’d love to see his pre/post all-star splits from last year, along with all other players, in one nice purdy table.
Can anyone provide a link that shows that?
Consider the following:
1) Didn’t settle into 3rd in the order until late June
2) While batting 3rd, his walk rate was about 7.8%
3) While batting 3rd, he had a slash of .358/.404/.664
4) His best hitting happened to coincide with Tulo coming back (and hitting 3rd)
5) His walk rate those last 2 months was about 9.8% (K% dropped to about 20%)
I will not consider that. It is meaningless.
Y!’s Funston has Gonzalez several picks ahead of Ryan Braun. I think last year we saw Gonzalez’s best and what is probably Braun’s floor. Despite his relatively poor year, Braun still ranked in the top 10 in roto scoring. I don’t doubt Gonzalez’s abilities, but I think some people are drooling too much like they did with their Matt Kemp projections last offseason. Carlos Gonzalez will be a first round pick in almost all drafts, but he should not be taken ahead of Ryan Braun.
His “best” last year also included 44 games at lead-off where he hit .290/.318/.466 vs 3rd when he went 358/.404/.664. So we’re actually only seeing about 90 games of his “best” in those numbers.
For me personally, Braun and Gonzalez are very interchangeable going into next year.
Step one. Don’t listen to Funston.
Question: I just got offered Brian Matusz and Justin Upton for Carlos Gonzalez. Am I crazy for not immediately making the deal?