Archive for Outfielders

The regular season has yet to begin, but let’s take a look at two players that are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo! leagues…

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Chris Coghlan took the league by storm in 2009, posting a .372 wOBA and earning NL Rookie of the Year honors. Though his performance line was boosted by a rather high .365 BABIP, his skills were right in line with what he had been doing down on the farm. As such, expectations were high for a solid sophomore season, but unfortunately things did not pan out, as he finished with a disappointing .322 wOBA and his season ended prematurely after a knee injury.

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On Thursday, Eno gave us the National League Outfielder composite rankings, complete with good-to-bad movie title tiers which sparked more debate in the comments than the actual rankings did. Regardless of that fact, we all will face the need, at some stage in our respective drafts, for brand name quality at closeout prices. With that in mind, in the Step Brothers Tier (which turned out to be tier 5, irrespective of your cinematic opinions), there’s Logan Morrison, who ought to come fairly cheaply and could be awfully productive relative to his cost.

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While most fantasy owners fall in love with players who broke into the elite a year ago (like Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen) or get carried away with unearthing the next didn’t-see-that-coming talent, the best way to find cheap value on draft day is to keep tabs on vets whose fantasy reps took a hit following a down year. Like these three NL leftfielders with power-hitting track records.

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Once you display a skill, you own it? That’s what the Braves and their fans are hoping applies to Nate McLouth this season. To say that last year was a disaster may actually be an understatement. A ghastly .283 wOBA from a hitter who was rather consistent over his three previous seasons was quite an unpleasant surprise. McLouth’s strikeout rate increased to the worst mark of his career, his isolated slugging percentage dove for the second straight year to a career low of .132 and his BABIP plunged to just .221.

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Aside from age, Andres Torres and Angel Pagan have much in common. Both are swift switch-hitters who impressed in brief big league playing time in 2009 and broke out while holding full-time gigs in 2010. Entering the 2011 season, the two are side-by-side in terms of outfielder ADP: according to MockDraftCentral, Torres is 56th among fly catchers, while Pagan is 57th. So, who’s the better bet on draft day?

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With our NL Outfielder rankings published today I thought I’d take a look at three speedsters who are in three distinctly different tiers.

Let’s start from the top and take a look at Shane Victorino. The Flyin Hawaiian’s 2010 campaign was a mixed bag. Yes his home runs, RBI, and stolen bases were improved over 2009, but his batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs were way down. The increase in power and decrease average and OBP look to be caused by the spike in Victorino’s fly ball rate. In 2009 it was 33.2 percent while in 2010 it jumped to 37.6 percent. That lead to a dip in his line drive percentage – from 21.7 percent in 2009 to 17.4 percent last year. The more fly balls Victorino hits the more outs he’s going to generate. He’s not a power hitter, so while the increase in home runs is nice, his value lies in his ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal bases. His BABIP was also low last season (.273), but that too be tied to the increase of fly balls hit. The loss of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley’s injury concerns may have a negative impact on Victorino’s run totals – it’s going to be harder for him to get back to scoring 100 runs a season.  If Victorino can get back to slapping the ball around the field instead of popping it up for outs, he has a good chance of regaining fantasy value in the categories you rely on him most.

Next on our list are two players similar enough that I’m going to lump them together for the sake of this post, even though their skill sets are just different enough to separate them in our tiers. Michael Bourn and Nyjer Morgan derive their fantasy value entirely from their speed. If they didn’t steal 30+ bases a year there’s no way in the world they’d be owned in any league, ever. It just so happens that Bourn has stolen 61 and 52 bases over the past two seasons, making him an extremely valuable asset. He’s one of the few players who can win you an entire category for you in any given week. A strikeout rate under 20 percent would be a welcomed addition to Bourn’s game as it would get him on base to steal more, but that’s not likely to happen. As long as he keeps his ground ball rate in the high 50 percent range he’ll be able to use his speed to his advantage, keeping his average in a respectable range (career .263) in the process.

Nyjer Morgan is in a tier below Bourn because his stolen base totals aren’t quite as high and his behavioral issues are a concern. People may look at his .253 average last season and not think Morgan is worth much as a draft pick. A closer look reveals he was actually pretty unlucky last season, even though his BABIP was a respectable .304. It was no lower than .355 in his three seasons prior. Unlike Victorino, his batted ball rates were pretty much in line with his career norms so there isn’t a noticeable reason for the decline in BABIP. Fantasy owners can expect a regression upward, back to roughly .300 batting average this season. A .290-.300 hitter with 30+ steals isn’t easy to find. If Morgan can keep himself out of trouble he can be an asset in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.

Heading into the 2011 season, there’s only sure thing about the Nationals’ outfield situation: Jayson Werth is going to play everyday. I don’t know where, he’s been playing right for the last few years but there have been some rumblings that they may use him in center, but I don’t really care. I’m interested in the team’s other two outfield spots, and how it might effect my fantasy team.

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With the National League Outfield Rankings released today, I thought I’d take on the Top 5 as seen by the collective group of RotoGraphs writers.  Now, obviously, I’m not here to give you the no brainer names and tell you to go after them in your draft.  That would be a pretty short article, no?  But perhaps I can give you a few things to think about that just might make your decision as to which one (or two) to target a little more thought provoking. Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve probably gotten a handle on how things are going here. We RotoGraph writers got together around Carson’s virtual, incredibly round table, and ranked the players. Then we smashed them together and today I’ll add the tiers. These rankings assume regular settings (but plan on seeing some articles about players that step forward in alternate settings). Once the season starts, I’ll be your NL OF correspondent, continually updating the rankings and discussing player news at the position.

RotoGraphs will also provide a list of mixed-league OF ranks. Because of the way things are set up here, we won’t be able to offer strong coverage at the position without splitting them into leagues. But we can give you a draft-prep sheet for mixed-league outfielders and will as soon as we can. And one last thing – click on the tags in the bottom right navbar and you can easily skip to the position you’d like to read about.

Caddyshack
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Holliday

Though this tier is not without questions, the questions are a lot more muted than the rest of the position. Braun’s power will hopefully regress to career levels, and even if Gonzalez is unhappy about his regression in batted-ball luck, he should be a valuable player. Holliday is the metronome, but the lineup around him is worse than you might expect, and he owns less power than you might think. Don’t sell them short, though, they’re tremendous slouches/outfielders.

Ghostbusters
Matt Kemp
Andrew McCutchen
Jayson Werth
Justin Upton
Jason Heyward
Hunter Pence

If you gotta call someone, you might as well call these guys. Every member of this tier will give you something in all five categories – and yet they may give a little something back somewhere else. Kemp’s Ks mean a lower batting average, McCutchen’s power is an open question, Werth is leaving a nice home park and has always struck out a lot, Heyward needs to stay healthy and show the power we know is coming, and Pence has to avoid the bad streak that comes almost every year.

This is Spinal Tap
Andre Ethier
Jay Bruce
Shane Victorino
Mike Stanton
Drew Stubbs
Chris Young
Corey Hart
Colby Rasmus
Martin Prado

This tier is mostly in transit. Some are on their way up, some on their way down, and all feature questions more prominently than the last group. For the most part, you won’t get a nice batting average here, and if you start falling behind in that category, you may find yourself skipping the group. That would be too bad, because someone here will dial it to eleven this year.

The 40-Year Old Virgin
Angel Pagan
Jason Bay
Aubrey Huff
Michael Bourn
Carlos Lee
Jose Tabata
Dexter Fowler
Chris Coghlan

Same as the last verse, just a little bit worse. All the veterans here are closer to extinction, and all the young guys have lower ceilings. These guys are flawed, but if they fall far enough, they’ll provide your team with value. And even limited upside is still upside – just don’t put them on a pedestal.

Step Brothers
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Marlon Byrd
Seth Smith
Will Venable
Alfonso Soriano
Logan Morrison
Nyjer Morgan
Andres Torres
Ryan Ludwick
Raul Ibanez
Tyler Colvin

This is not the time for a Will Ferrell referendum, but even his biggest fans would admit that he has better movies. Still, the movie was good for some great lines, and most of these guys will be able to hit offer some good lines for a stretch or two. Over the course of the year, you will start to see their flaws, but a few high notes is enough at their prices.

Coneheads
Cody Ross
Garrett Jones
Nate McLouth
Domonic Brown
Carlos Gomez
Jonny Gomes
Ben Francisco
Cameron Maybin
Mark DeRosa
Mike Morse
Roger Bernadina
Ryan Spilborghs
Chris Dickerson
Kosuke Fukudome
Ryan Sweeney
Brad Hawpe
Kyle Blanks

A fundamentally flawed movie and tier, you’ll still get a chuckle or two. One or two of these guys may even rise above his peers and make great movies, I mean become a fantasy regular at his position. But the odds are not in their favor this year.