NL Outfield Position Battle: The Nationals

Heading into the 2011 season, there’s only sure thing about the Nationals’ outfield situation: Jayson Werth is going to play everyday. I don’t know where, he’s been playing right for the last few years but there have been some rumblings that they may use him in center, but I don’t really care. I’m interested in the team’s other two outfield spots, and how it might effect my fantasy team.

Washington has four players vying for two spots. Each guy has their own strengths and weaknesses (in fantasy terms), so let’s review each now…

Rick Ankiel

A 3.2 WAR pitcher as a rookie, Ankiel has amassed just 3.6 WAR as a position player since resurfacing in 2007. He is what he is; a low average (.232 over the last two years) hitter with some pop (.156 ISO) and platoon issues (.341 wOBA vs. RHP, .301 vs. LHP). Ankiel’s battled some injuries (an oblique issue plus a quad strain) that have cut into his playing time over the last two years, but he’s best suited for platoon/fourth outfielder/pinch-hitting duties anyway. At best, you’ll get double digit homers and maybe 70 RBI. Maybe.

Nyjer Morgan

Last year was in interesting one for Morgan, who made more headlines for his attitude and various tantrums than his play. After hitting .307 with a .369 OBP and 42 steals in 2009, he slipped down to .253/.319/34, which is still pretty good. Some BABIP luck should have his AVG back up, maybe not to .300, but to a .280-ish, which has value given the potential for 40 steals. As long as your league doesn’t deduct points for jerks, Morgan’s a fine option if he plays.

Roger Bernadina

Just 26 years old, Bernadina’s overall performance in 2010 is suspect at best: .246/.307/.384 with 11 homers and 14 steals. A mid-summer hot streak saw him hit .287/.351/.495 with four homers in 112 PA, and surprisingly enough he showed a reverse split (.332 wOBA vs. LHP, .300 vs. RHP), though that’s a sample size issue more than anything. Bernadina has crushed Triple-A pitching (.321/.391/.462), and Marcel foresees some improvement this season: .251/.317/.391 with ten homers and 13 steals. There’s some breakout potential here, but playing time could be an issue.

Mike Morse

The former infielder and Seattle Mariner, Morse broke out in a big way last season, hitting .289/.352/.519 with 15 homers in 293 PA. The right-handed hitter demolished lefties (.423 wOBA) and figures to have done enough to at least get himself some playing time as a platoon guy in 2011. Morse won’t steal you any bases, but he’ll give you a solid average and double-digit homers on the cheap.

The Verdict

Morse and Bernadina platooned in right field most of last year, at least until Josh Willingham’s knee injury forced both into everyday duty late in the season. Ankiel’s the grizzly veteran, so that alone might earn him some playing time. Morgan will probably get another chance to show what he’s got after a down 2010 but a stellar 2009.

In my uninformed opinion, I think we’ll see Morgan handle center field duties on an everyday basis while Morse and Ankiel platoon in left. The $126M man slots in right, and Bernadina becomes a highly used bench bat. If Morgan’s not up to the task, it’s likely the Morse/Bernandina platoon goes back into effect with Ankiel and Werth playing the other two spots in some order.

Anyway, Morgan is the guy with most fantasy value because of the steals, so if you target any of these guys on draft day, it should be him. Bernadina has potential, but I always let those guys show what they’ve got before pouncing. We know all about Ankiel, and Morse is on the wrong side of the platoon when it comes to playing time. I expect it to be a rather fluid situation all season, meaning whoever’s playing the best at the moment gets the playing time, which sucks for fantasy purposes.