Archive for Ottoneu

Buying Generic: Platoon Outfield Bargains

In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

2016 Stats
Name Ottoneu Avg. PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP wOBA v LHP wOBA v RHP wOBA
Mr. Name Brand $12.72 476 13.20% 27.30% 0.249 0.296 0.246 0.352 0.290 0.386 0.360
Mr. Generic 1 $4.88 464 8.40% 30.40% 0.259 0.261 0.225 0.300 0.222 0.343 0.329
Mr. Generic 2 $4.22 438 11.00% 20.30% 0.167 0.282 0.249 0.342 0.219 0.340 0.331

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Buying Generic: When the Top-Tier is Gone

In Ottoneu, the top tier of 1B usually cost a pretty penny. Whether it’s Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, or Anthony Rizzo – the clear top tier will likely cost $40 or more in FGpt leagues for 2017, and I would not be surprised if any of these 4 clear $50. Maybe you really like Freddie Freeman and want to add him to the mix. It’s certainly defensible given Freeman’s ridiculous 2016. However, after that group things get a little more congested. Edwin Encarnacion is another name who will likely come up. He has helped round out the upper echelon of 1B for the past few seasons, but projections have him taking a slight step back. Either way, you will probably be left pushing $30 for the likes of E5 come march. So what do you do when you are left on the outside looking in a as the top 1B come off the board? Today I want to look at two options who can help if roster construction leaves you pinching pennies at 1B.

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My Ottoneu 2017 Resolutions

It’s always been amusing to me that the calendar flipping over from one year to the next has been an impetus for people to dedicate themselves to life changes and betterment goals. The start of a new year is a line in the sand that we sometimes draw to say “This year will be different!”. With that as my inspiration, I’d like to share a handful of resolutions I’m making for the 2017 season of ottoneu:

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How To Win Your Ottoneu Auction

As we close out 2016, we’re nearing that point in time where we look forward to what the future holds and then solidify commitments about changes we plan to make.  From a fantasy perspective, there are few things to look forward to more than the annual Ottoneu auction, so whether you’re anxiously anticipating your very first or are committed to improving upon your second or tenth, preparation is everything.  As in life, you rarely get the chance to make a second first impression, so recovering from a poor draft can be a challenge that plagues you all season long.  

I covered the mechanics (many of which have since been upgraded) of the Ottoneu auction last year here.  We’re still roughly one month from the keeper deadline (1/31), but today I want to offer some practical suggestions (especially for those new to the game) for how to begin preparing for your auction draft.  If you’re thinking about playing Ottoneu for the first time in 2017, leagues are forming daily here and here.

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A Quick Analysis of 2016 Hitter Projections

I’ve been using projections to create dollar values for my fantasy leagues for more than ten years, and even understanding how to convert projections into dollars is just half the battle. The other half is deciding which projections to use in the first place. Should you use only one set of projections? Or multiple? Should you use the freely available projections here on FanGraphs? Or should you pay for projections from other sources? I’m not going to answer any of those questions definitively, but let’s take a look at a handful of projection sources and compare their projections to 2016 actual results.

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Buying Generic: Aged Bias

On Wednesday, we took a look at two 2B who appear very similar while possessing vastly different average salaries throughout the Ottoneu universe. While Kipnis and Forysthe appeared nearly identical in many ways, today I want to look at two outfielders who are similar in several regards, but not nearly as identical as Wednesday’s test-cases.

2016 Results
Name 2017 Age Ottoneu Avg. BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Mr. Name Brand 27 $52.49 10.60% 29.80% 0.249 0.290 0.240 0.326 0.489 0.344 114
Mr. Generic 37 $14.72 8.20% 16.70% 0.215 0.253 0.246 0.322 0.461 0.335 109

One of the major differences between today’s Mr. Name Brand and Mr. Generic is their respective ages. Why is this important? If you’ve played Ottoneu (or any dynasty slanted format) for any amount of time, you will likely find that the majority of owners are biased against the aged. While age is typically viewed as a premium, this can be detrimental when pricing comes into play as owners will chase after the shiny, younger, new toys. Given the 10 year age difference between our name brand and generic option, it is likely that these two will never be considered in the same tier.

The $38 price difference across Ottoneu leagues also confirms this – and while age is not the only reason for this price gap – it should help us determine that Mr. Name Brand is priced as if he is one of the most elite players in Ottoneu. While both are power hitters, our name brand option displays otherworldly power, but also strikes 13% more than our generic option. He also had 40 points of BABIP on Mr. Generic. Let’s dig a little deeper.

xStats Differences
Name FgP/G ISO xISO Diff BABIP xBABIP Diff wOBA xOBA Diff
Mr. Name Brand 5.22 0.249 0.234 15 0.290 .318 -28 0.344 .351 -7
Mr. Generic 4.77 0.215 0.213 2 0.253 .306 -53 0.335 .367 -32
SOURCE: xStats.org

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Buying Generic: An Undervalued 2B

Many times in fantasy baseball owners fall victim to name brands. While having familiarity with a player is necessary, often we don’t dive deeply enough into a player’s performance to get a clear idea of how much more valuable he is than his peers. Due to this, we will often pay more for something than we otherwise would if we were truly aware of it’s value. Today, I want to talk about the 2B position and one name brand that will likely cost much more in your annual Ottoneu auctions, or in trades, than a much cheaper generic option.

2016 Results: Name Brand v. Generic
Name Avg $ PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA xOBA wRC+
Mr. Name Brand $22.00 688 8.70% 21.20% 0.193 0.324 0.275 0.343 0.469 0.347 0.339 117
Mr. Generic $6.00 567 8.10% 22.40% 0.180 0.314 0.264 0.333 0.444 0.336 0.351 113
SOURCE: xOBA courtesy of Andrew Perpetua at xStats.org

Any guesses? While the two players are strikingly similar, Mr. Name Brand certainly played more, with about 120 extra PAs over our and more power than Mr. Generic. However, the price difference is immediately evident. Across Ottoneu leagues, owners paid $16 more for our name brand option for roughly equal production across the board. The K/BB numbers are nearly identical, with both producing good power and higher than average BABIP results. While Mr. Name Brand bested Mr. Generic by 11 points of wOBA, xOBA (a statcast based  equivalent for  wOBA based on expected batted ball results) actually had our generic option with a 12 point advantage.  Final answers? Going once… twice? Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Top 50 Fantasy Prospects: First Look

Jon Gray.  Alex Bregman.  Michael Fulmer.  Edwin Diaz.  Yoan Moncada.  Willson Contreras.  Josh Bell.  Blake Snell.

The young players listed above are hot commodities right now in keeper leagues like Ottoneu. These players are the building blocks of hope for many eager fantasy owners looking to turn the corner from rebuilding to contention over the next season or two.  Each of these players were also well outside the top 50 prospects listed in Chris Mitchell’s KATOH Top 100 prospect ranking posted almost oneyear ago.

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Bargain Shopping: Five for $5

Last week fellow writer Justin Vibber and I struck the following deal in the Ottoneu Champions League:

530-weaver-trade

The goal today is not to go into the details of how this big trade came together (though I’d be happy to in the comments for those that want to know), but it is to focus on a very small piece of the puzzle: Luke Weaver.

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Blockbusting Ottoneu Style

Regular ottoneu enthusiasts may recall my retooling efforts from last winter in FanGraphs Staff Two. Here’s the short version. After going all-in to win the 2015 campaign, I was left with a very talented and very expensive roster. I needed to slice more $150 off my payroll without affecting the product. I was open to rebuilding, but I always prefer to contend.

The easy way out was to trade one or both of Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. Unfortunately, my leaguemates and I have very different ideas about the value of expensive, hyper-elite players. I guess it makes sense that they gravitated to my roster. I had to re-equip the hard way – by making a flurry of incrimental moves.

One year later, I get to claim success. The 2016 season may have been my most successful victory yet. Now I’m attempting the same stunt once again. I entered the offseason with $510 spread across 42 players. Of that, only a couple low cost players are obvious cuts. Time to get to work.

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