It’s Ottoneu Cut Day!

Today’s the day. Your 2017 ottoneu keeper rosters are due prior to midnight tonight. All that advice to put off cutting your extraneous players can be ignored. Shed the bloat and corruption from your roster. See ya $35 Chris Davis. Didn’t find a taker for your $20 David Ortiz? Well, I’m not surprised. Goodbye forever Big Papi.

I’m here to offer some last minute advice as you make your decisions. Let’s talk about trade options and those oh-so-tricky borderline keepers. For more late breaking advice, check out the ottoneu strategy page.

Trades

Ottoneu trades take two days to process. This has important implications for your wheeling and dealing. Any player you acquire today via trade will be a keeper. Any player you sell today will be a keeper. Say it with me – all players traded today are automatically kept.

That means the silly “take-all-of-my-cuts” volume trade you’re offered needs to be countered to remove anybody you wouldn’t keep. In the past, I’ve also advocated trading players for nothing. I’ve got a $7 Luis Severino. Last year, he was everybody’s favorite pitching prospect – the Julio Urias of 2016. Now I can’t find any sort of return.

The $7 price tag seems reasonable for the Yankees fourth starter given the cost of other uncertain prospects. In our league, kept prospects are typically in the $5 to $20 bin. Only a few of the truly valuable $2 types can be found, and they’re usually flawed like Dylan Cozens or Rowdy Tellez. There’s a decent chance Severino will cost less to whoever wins him at auction. Therefore, I might try to find an owner to take him at no cost.

Most of today’s trades will probably be around the margins. Players in the $10-and-under bin who will play a backup depth role. Maybe a fair-priced core starter for a mid-tier prospect. Challenge trades of fringy $3 pitchers. Very few blockbusters are still in the works.

If you’re not pleased with the valuations you’re receiving, don’t be afraid to table talks until after the draft. You may discover your interest in a specific target wanes over time. Or maybe the draft offers a better value on a similar asset. However, don’t count on the draft as a panacea. Every year, my rivals tell me “oh, you want that much for Trout? I’ll do better via the draft.” They wind up paying out the nose for guys like Andrew McCutchen, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun, and Wil Myers. Yes, it could work, but not with any degree of certainty. Typically, almost every player in the draft will cost more than they’re worth.

What about offers for players you’re going to cut? There’s a temptation to take anything at all. As I mentioned earlier, I’m even open to giving away Luis Severino. However, the key is that I’d be placing Severino on a non-threatening roster. I don’t mind if they make one of my rivals pay for Severino, but I don’t want to give close competitors any sort of edge. Pay attention to where your trading partner stands on the win curve.

Tricky Keep/Cuts

My roster has a number of very difficult keep/cut decisions, particularly because I’m right up against the $400 salary cap. On my roster organizer page, I have 26 players designated as keepers at a cost of $375. That would actually give me more free cash than I had last season. I won a blowout victory so I know my build can work. My success will hinge on the play of Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and others. My drafted players will be assigned to patch holes like fifth outfielder and injury needs.

Players on my bubble include $21 Jason Kipnis, $4 Austin Hedges, $3 Raimel Tapia, $8 Carter Capps, $3 Greg Holland, and $3 Matt Andriese. The decision is basically between Kipnis or the rest. By waiting until the last minute to make my decision, I have some information about the marketplace. A $26 Ian Kinsler, $26 Ben Zobrist, and $10 Jonathan Schoop were cut. Plenty of teams need middle infielders, so it’s not as if I’m likely to get any of those players for less than their previous price. However, it’s a gamble I could take. I can also hope to acquire a big upgrade at a later date.

Of the available options, Kipnis is my preferred target. Subtle adjustments to his swing path allowed him to finally take advantage of his friendly home park. I expect a repeat of his 2016 power output. I anticipate a price tag around $30 via the draft. I value him at $26. Because I’m running a stars and scrubs machine, my decision is really between paying for Kipnis now or going cheap with several $1 volume plays like Brandon Phillips. He’s been a regular on my roster for the past two seasons.

A guy like Hedges is hard to value. His minimal major league experience suggests he may take time adjusting to the majors. I believe in the swing adjustments he made in the minors, even if his home park did provide some of the fuel for his 21 homer performance. Petco is much less forgiving to right-handed hitters. Since I have an affordable Jonathan Lucroy, rostering Hedges is a luxury depth move. Best case scenario, he builds some serious trade value with a couple hot weeks at the plate. The scouting report still includes doubts about his bat.

Tapia’s another tough prospect. He’s very blocked in Colorado, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon. A swap to a sea level stadium transforms him into just another toolsy outfielder. But if he can find regular reps at Coors Field…

Capps and Holland are coming off the Tommy John train. Steamer has Capps projected to pitch at a $25 pace over half a season, and that includes a lot of regression from his superb 2015 numbers. Holland’s a little harder to get behind at Coors Field. Sliders are negatively affected by the rarefied air. Holland is first and foremost a sliderballer. He’s so cheap that it might be worth the gamble anyway.

Last but not least is Andriese. He’ll compete for a rotation job. He probably has more ottoneu value as a long reliever, a role in which he posted a 2.38 ERA and .207 wOBA allowed. The difference was almost entirely BABIP and home run rates. As Jeff Zimmerman noted, his pitches have extreme outcomes which allows them to play up in relief.

So those are my bubble guys, and I have a firm payroll constraint to balance. For pricier picks, be mindful of available alternatives. Your rival’s needs are relevant too. It doesn’t matter if a dozen second basemen will be in the draft if your opponents need 15 of them. My other cut day decisions are all about 2018 and beyond. Unfortunately, there’s very little advice I can give. Contending for multiple years is all about balancing the present with the future. My success after this season may rely on that breakout Andriese stock or Capps returning to $30 form.