2017 Ottoneu FGPts Rankings: C/1B/3B
Today we are kicking off our series on ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Joe Douglas, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).
Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value
Ottoneu FGPts-Catcher
| Rnk | Name | Team | Elig | Justin | Joe | Chad | Split | Otto | AVG | (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buster Posey | Giants | 1B/C | $32 | $26 | $33 | $7 | $37 | $30.3 | ($7) |
| 2 | Gary Sanchez | Yankees | C | $26 | $22 | $27 | $5 | $10 | $25.0 | $16 |
| 3 | Jonathan Lucroy | Rangers | 1B/C | $21 | $25 | $20 | $5 | $18 | $22.0 | $4 |
| 4 | Willson Contreras | Cubs | C/OF | $13 | $16 | $11 | $5 | $6 | $13.3 | $7 |
| 5 | Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers | C | $13 | $11 | $14 | $3 | $10 | $12.7 | $3 |
| 6 | Evan Gattis | Astros | C | $10 | $7 | $9 | $3 | $8 | $8.7 | $0 |
| 7 | Stephen Vogt | Athletics | C | $7 | $6 | $9 | $3 | $7 | $7.3 | $0 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | Blue Jays | C | $7 | $5 | $6 | $2 | $8 | $6.0 | ($2) |
| 8 | Salvador Perez | Royals | C | $7 | $2 | $9 | $7 | $11 | $6.0 | ($5) |
| 10 | Tom Murphy | Rockies | C | $6 | $3 | $6 | $3 | $4 | $5.0 | $1 |
| 11 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | C | $6 | $2 | $6 | $4 | $5 | $4.7 | ($1) |
| 12 | Wilson Ramos | Rays | C | $2 | $5 | $4 | $3 | $5 | $3.7 | ($1) |
| 13 | Brian McCann | Astros | C | $2 | $2 | $5 | $3 | $12 | $3.0 | ($9) |
| 14 | Welington Castillo | Orioles | C | $2 | $2 | $4 | $2 | $5 | $2.7 | ($3) |
| 15 | J.T. Realmuto | Marlins | C | $3 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $5 | $2.3 | ($3) |
| 15 | Travis d’Arnaud | Mets | C | $2 | $2 | $3 | $1 | $11 | $2.3 | ($9) |
| 15 | Devin Mesoraco | Reds | C | $2 | $3 | $2 | $1 | $6 | $2.3 | ($4) |
| 18 | Francisco Cervelli | Pirates | C | $2 | $- | $2 | $2 | $5 | $1.3 | ($4) |
| 18 | Matt Wieters | FA | C | $1 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $7 | $1.3 | ($6) |
| 18 | Zack Collins | White Sox | C | $- | $4 | $- | $4 | $- | $1.3 | $1 |
| 21 | Cameron Rupp | Phillies | C | $- | $3 | $- | $3 | $4 | $1.0 | ($3) |
| 22 | Chris Iannetta | Diamondbacks | C | $2 | $- | $- | $2 | $3 | $0.7 | ($2) |
| 22 | Josh Phegley | Athletics | C | $1 | $- | $1 | $1 | $- | $0.7 | $1 |
| 22 | Mike Zunino | Mariners | C | $1 | $1 | $- | $1 | $4 | $0.7 | ($4) |
| 22 | Derek Norris | Padres | C | $- | $- | $2 | $2 | $6 | $0.7 | ($5) |
| 22 | Francisco Mejia | Indians | C | $- | $2 | $- | $2 | $- | $0.7 | $1 |
| 27 | Blake Swihart | Red Sox | C/OF | $1 | $- | $- | $1 | $7 | $0.3 | ($6) |
| 27 | Miguel Montero | Cubs | C | $1 | $- | $- | $1 | $6 | $0.3 | ($5) |
| 27 | Austin Hedges | Padres | C | $- | $1 | $- | $1 | $4 | $0.3 | ($4) |
| 27 | A.J. Ellis | Marlins | C | $- | $- | $1 | $1 | $- | $0.3 | $0 |
| Total # | 24 | 23 | 22 | |||||||
| Total $ | $170 | $153 | $178 |
Observations:
- Even if all three of us are using similar projections (like Steamer), our valuation methodologies can result in differing values. The first example is here at catcher, as Joe’s values are lower than mine and Chad’s, especially at the top end (Posey is tied for the largest split in our values)
- Joe chose to include prospects that should be rostered in ottoneu in his values, while Chad and I limited ourselves to players we believe will be above replacement level in 2017
- Other than Posey, the catcher with the most difference in dollar values is Salvador Perez. This is also probably due to methodology, but it’s also interesting to note that Perez is relatively weak on a rate basis (wOBA, Pts/PA) but plays quite often for a catcher and very rarely is removed early
Ottoneu FGPts-1B
| Rnk | Name | Team | Elig | Justin | Joe | Chad | Split | Otto | AVG | (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 1B | $47 | $47 | $46 | $1 | $49 | $46.7 | $(2) |
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt | Diamondbacks | 1B | $46 | $44 | $40 | $6 | $49 | $43.3 | $(6) |
| 3 | Joey Votto | Reds | 1B | $44 | $46 | $38 | $8 | $40 | $42.7 | $3 |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | Cubs | 1B | $40 | $44 | $37 | $7 | $40 | $40.3 | $0 |
| 5 | Freddie Freeman | Braves | 1B | $35 | $40 | $30 | $10 | $32 | $35.0 | $3 |
| 6 | Edwin Encarnacion | Indians | 1B | $29 | $24 | $20 | $9 | $32 | $24.3 | $(8) |
| 7 | Carlos Santana | Indians | 1B | $22 | $24 | $22 | $2 | $17 | $22.7 | $6 |
| 8 | Jose Abreu | White Sox | 1B | $25 | $21 | $18 | $7 | $33 | $21.3 | $(11) |
| 9 | Hanley Ramirez | Red Sox | 1B | $18 | $18 | $17 | $1 | $18 | $17.7 | $0 |
| 10 | Chris Davis | Orioles | 1B | $16 | $21 | $12 | $9 | $23 | $16.3 | $(7) |
| 11 | Eric Thames | Brewers | Util | $12 | $14 | $21 | $9 | $5 | $15.7 | $11 |
| 12 | Brandon Belt | Giants | 1B | $15 | $17 | $8 | $9 | $15 | $13.3 | $(2) |
| 13 | Eric Hosmer | Royals | 1B | $8 | $6 | $12 | $6 | $15 | $8.7 | $(7) |
| 14 | Albert Pujols | Angels | 1B | $8 | $7 | $10 | $3 | $12 | $8.3 | $(3) |
| 15 | Gregory Bird | Yankees | Util | $7 | $6 | $7 | $1 | $6 | $6.7 | $1 |
| 15 | Victor Martinez | Tigers | 1B | $6 | $6 | $8 | $2 | $8 | $6.7 | $(1) |
| 17 | Lucas Duda | Mets | 1B | $4 | $3 | $6 | $3 | $7 | $4.3 | $(3) |
| 18 | Tommy Joseph | Phillies | 1B | $4 | $3 | $5 | $2 | $3 | $4.0 | $1 |
| 19 | Chris Carter | Brewers | 1B | $3 | $3 | $2 | $1 | $4 | $2.7 | $(2) |
| 19 | Adrian Gonzalez | Dodgers | 1B | $3 | $3 | $2 | $1 | $17 | $2.7 | $(15) |
| 21 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 1B | $2 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $4 | $1.7 | $(2) |
| 22 | Justin Bour | Marlins | 1B | $1 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $4 | $1.3 | $(3) |
| 23 | John Jaso | Pirates | 1B | $1 | $2 | $- | $2 | $4 | $1.0 | $(3) |
| 23 | Matt Adams | Cardinals | 1B | $1 | $1 | $1 | $- | $5 | $1.0 | $(4) |
| 25 | Mike Napoli | Rangers | 1B | $1 | $1 | $- | $1 | $4 | $0.7 | $(3) |
| 25 | Kennys Vargas | Twins | 1B | $1 | $1 | $- | $1 | $4 | $0.7 | $(3) |
| 25 | Byung-ho Park | Twins | 1B | $1 | $1 | $- | $1 | $9 | $0.7 | $(8) |
| 25 | Adam Lind | FA | 1B | $- | $- | $2 | $2 | $4 | $0.7 | $(4) |
| 29 | A.J. Reed | Astros | 1B | $1 | $- | $- | $1 | $6 | $0.3 | $(5) |
| 29 | Rowdy Tellez | Blue Jays | 1B | $- | $1 | $- | $1 | $3 | $0.3 | $(3) |
| Total # | 28 | 28 | 24 | |||||||
| Total $ | $401 | $406 | $368 |
Observations:
- Overall we have fairly similar rankings, with Chad’s values a bit lower than Joe’s and mine
- We made some judgement calls on players that have Util only eligibility in ottoneu. We’ve included Thames and Bird here with the 1B, but Schwarber will be included with OF (as he’s likely to earn eligibility there first)
- Thames is tied for the second highest split in values (behind Freeman), and is certainly the highest variance name on this list. The projections are quite rosy (and Chad’s values as presented here are informed primarily by Steamer), but Joe and I are more cautious about the slugger
Ottoneu FGPts-3B
| Rnk | Name | Team | Elig | Justin | Joe | Chad | Split | Otto | AVG | (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nolan Arenado | Rockies | 3B | $47 | $46 | $45 | $2 | $35 | $46.0 | $11.0 |
| 1 | Kris Bryant | Cubs | 1B/3B/OF | $46 | $50 | $42 | $8 | $40 | $46.0 | $6.1 |
| 3 | Josh Donaldson | Blue Jays | 3B | $47 | $46 | $44 | $3 | $39 | $45.7 | $6.6 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | Rangers | 3B | $24 | $23 | $26 | $3 | $21 | $24.3 | $3.7 |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | Mariners | 3B | $22 | $21 | $19 | $3 | $21 | $20.7 | $(0.4) |
| 6 | Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 3B | $17 | $21 | $21 | $4 | $22 | $19.7 | $(2.6) |
| 7 | Miguel Sano | Twins | 3B/OF | $21 | $19 | $18 | $3 | $16 | $19.3 | $3.3 |
| 8 | Justin Turner | Dodgers | 3B | $19 | $18 | $19 | $1 | $8 | $18.7 | $10.8 |
| 9 | Evan Longoria | Rays | 3B | $19 | $16 | $18 | $3 | $21 | $17.7 | $(3.5) |
| 10 | Maikel Franco | Phillies | 3B | $14 | $8 | $20 | $12 | $11 | $14.0 | $3.5 |
| 11 | Mike Moustakas | Royals | 3B | $10 | $11 | $17 | $7 | $8 | $12.7 | $5.2 |
| 12 | Jake Lamb | Diamondbacks | 3B | $14 | $12 | $11 | $3 | $7 | $12.3 | $4.9 |
| 13 | Jung Ho Kang | Pirates | 3B | $14 | $9 | $12 | $5 | $11 | $11.7 | $1.2 |
| 14 | Todd Frazier | White Sox | 1B/3B | $11 | $6 | $9 | $5 | $15 | $8.7 | $(6.4) |
| 15 | Pedro Alvarez | FA | 3B | $10 | $4 | $9 | $6 | $4 | $7.7 | $3.6 |
| 16 | Jose Ramirez | Indians | 3B/OF | $7 | $7 | $8 | $1 | $6 | $7.3 | $1.4 |
| 17 | Nick Castellanos | Tigers | 3B | $5 | $11 | $3 | $8 | $8 | $6.3 | $(2.1) |
| 18 | Ryon Healy | Athletics | 1B/3B | $3 | $8 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5.0 | $(0.1) |
| 19 | Joey Gallo | Rangers | 1B/3B | $4 | $1 | $3 | $3 | $8 | $2.7 | $(5.7) |
| 19 | Martin Prado | Marlins | 3B | $1 | $1 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $2.7 | $(1.9) |
| 21 | Yulieski Gurriel | Astros | 3B | $1 | $4 | $2 | $3 | $9 | $2.3 | $(6.5) |
| 22 | David Wright | Mets | 3B | $2 | $- | $3 | $3 | $8 | $1.7 | $(6.6) |
| 22 | Nick Senzel | Reds | 3B | $- | $5 | $- | $5 | $- | $1.7 | $1.7 |
| 24 | Pablo Sandoval | Red Sox | Util | $1 | $2 | $- | $2 | $4 | $1.0 | $(2.6) |
| 24 | Jeimer Candelario | Cubs | 3B | $- | $3 | $- | $3 | $3 | $1.0 | $(2.3) |
| 24 | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 3B | $- | $3 | $- | $3 | $- | $1.0 | $1.0 |
| 27 | Travis Shaw | Red Sox | 1B/3B | $- | $1 | $1 | $1 | $4 | $0.7 | $(3.5) |
| 28 | Cheslor Cuthbert | Royals | 3B | $- | $- | $1 | $1 | $4 | $0.3 | $(3.4) |
| 28 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | 3B | $- | $1 | $- | $1 | $- | $0.3 | $0.3 |
| Total # | 23 | 27 | 24 | |||||||
| Total $ | $359 | $357 | $361 |
Observations:
- Our closest batch of values yet, with the exception of a couple players with large splits
- Maikel Franco has the widest range in values here, as Steamer is quite a bit higher on him than other systems. There’s plenty of upside there, and Franco may be a bit of a post-hype guy right now
Any questions or comments about these rankings? Let us know in the comments!
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Justin is a life long Cubs fan who has been playing fantasy baseball for 30+ years, and an ottoneu addict since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @justinvibber.
Where’s Myers for 1B?
Myers has OF eligibility. He will be ranked there.
I’m surprised to see Jaso listed as the Pirates 1B. Would love to get your thoughts on Josh Bell (or does he still have OF eligibility?)
Bell has OF eligibility. He will be ranked there.
Shoot, I cut $3 Alvarez, in large part because I think he’ll end up with even fewer at bats than last year. I think he would have been higher if I thought he’d get 500pa. What are you thinking he gets?
It’s really impossible to say while he remains unemployed. When he does play I think he’s a valuable UTIL option. The good news is Alvarez may not go for too much more than $3 at auction (in two super early first year auctions he went for $1 and went undrafted in the second).
My ranking of Alvarez specifically takes into account the lack of certainty with playing time. If he was playing a full slate of PAs, I would have him much higher.
The projections on Alvarez look pretty solid, but I would have cut him at $3, as well. Same issue with Wieters, Carter until this week, and some others – if you don’t have a job, I can’t really pay much for you.
surprised Bour is just a buck or two, assuming daily lineups.
Projections are low on him, and when I ran numbers based on platoon splits a few months ago, he did look better. But you are betting on something of a breakout, rather than the projection itself. That said, I traded for a $5 Bour in my FanGraphs Points league this off-season, then traded him again – to Justin.
Yeah I like Bour, but if I’m going into a first year auction (or trying to compete in a returning league) I think there are better ways to spend a few bucks at 1B.
Really minor quibble, but why does Joe think Vlad Jr is worth a buck? He’ll only be 18 this season. I can’t imagine the Jays will even promote him to AA this year.
On the other side, I was surprised only Joe ranked Senzel. I think the Reds will give him 250-300 ABs this year.
Re: Vlad – I am with you. I would consider owning Vlad if my options were really slim late in a draft, just in case he explodes to start the year, but he is really far away for my liking and I doubt I’ll own him anywhere.
Re: Senzel – I don’t think the Reds will rush him – they are not good enough to justify burning a year of control when they could let him grow slowly. A September cup of coffee seems most likely to me (dude has not even seen high A yet, remember). He’s a guy who should be owned, for sure, but I expect no useful production this year.
Re: Vlad.
I have heard Majors by 20 multiple times. That said, the 4 3B prospects I rank are Senzel, Candelario, Devers, Vlad. I don’t expect anything from him this year, but he’ll get helium and be an easy trade chip or hold next year at $2.
Basically I am ranking every prospect I would buy in these rankings. So far you have Senzel, Collins, Candelario, Devers, Mejia, Tellez, Vlad. They may have zero MLB impact. BUt still worthwhile.
Gotcha. Makes sense. I was reading this more as a 2017 ranking than 2017 and beyond.
Where is Bregman – 3B – Hou?
I imagine Bregman will be ranked as a Shortstop, and quite highly.
yes, and yes
Will you guys publish rankings for 5×5 too?
I was just going to ask this
The standard RotoGraphs positional rankings (OF was released today!) are 5×5 based rankings.
But those don’t have wonderful dollar values like this does!