Exit velocity is an underlying skill that drives results. I like analyzing underlying skills. So let’s check in on the average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (FB/LD EV) surgers. Though the metric didn’t make it into my newest version of xHR/FB rate, it still correlates with offensive output and power.
To hell with reliable hitter sample sizes for the day and probably the rest of the season. I’ve waited long enough. It’s time to start figuring out which hitters are changing their approach and who should be targeted or dumped. By examining plate discipline and launch angle, the investigation can begin.
Last season, I kept diving into which stats point to sustainable breakouts. Two concepts stood out, plate discipline and launch angle. Concentration on changes in just these approaches removed 95% of the noise. If these two areas don’t point to a change, an owner can then see if power (exit velocity, HR/FB) or pull rate. Otherwise, just ignore the current stat line and expect some regression.
It’s still far too early to analyze a lot of the metrics we typically use to evaluate players. But underlying skills like SwStk% are meaningful more quickly than strikeout rate because the denominator increases faster. So let’s peruse the American League starting pitcher SwStk% leaderboard and discuss.
Fastball velocity changes may be getting beat to death but they are one of the few stats in which stabilize early in the offseason. I’ve created a couple tools which I use during the season to help find which pitchers to evaluate further using velocity. I have one which grades fastballs and a new pitcher injury finder.
Fastball Grades
This tool simply gives an ERA and 20-80 grade to a fastball based on its projected results from its velocity and spin. The velocity component is simple to understand. It’s hard to hit fast flying small objects. It’s even harder to hit faster flying small objects. Understanding the spin component is a little tougher.
Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers who have experienced the largest spikes in ground ball rate. In the era of the fly ball and home run, it’s more important than ever to induce the batted ball type that cannot leave the park — the grounder. Today, let’s dive into the starting pitchers who have seen their GB% dive compared to last year. Remember we’re still dealing with tiny samples here, so it’s likely the majority of pitchers regress toward their career average. But that won’t always be the case, so it’s worth trying to catch the batted ball type distribution changers early.
With the season underway, owners need to start adjusting some player’s fantasy value. Some of the tweaks can be from talent changes (e.g. increase in talent) or role (e.g. moving for a long reliever to starter). Three players, Kenley Jansen, Trea Turner, and Luke Weaver, are three such players on the move.
Though the leaguewide HR/FB rate is down (likely due in part to the cold weather), it’s clear that this fly ball revolution is here to stay. That’s bad news for fly ball pitchers, because now more of their fly balls are going to jump over the wall for a home run. The best way to keep your HR/9 rate in check is by inducing grounders. So let’s check in on the early starting pitcher ground ball rate surgers.
It’s still way too early to be analyzing anything. Heck, after Tuesday’s games, the league leader in plate appearances sits at just 33! That said, batted ball type distribution does stabilize relatively quickly, compared to other metrics. So even though we’re still not even halfway toward our 80 balls in play stabilization point, it’s worth checking in on batter fly ball rates. Perhaps we’ll get an early indication of which hitters have joined the fly ball revolution and are poised for a home run surge.
Yesterday, I took an early dive into leaguewide statistical trends on the hitting side. Obviously, it would be silly to evaluate hitters already, but not so for the league as a whole. Today, I switch over to the pitcher side. Since many of the metrics we would normally discuss are the same as for hitters that were discussed yesterday, let’s talk about pitch usage and plate discipline stats. Unlike yesterday when I was able to compare this season to just March/April of the previous four seasons, the Splits Leaderboard doesn’t give me the metrics I need. So rather than make more work for myself, all previous seasons are full season stats. Aside from velocities, it shouldn’t matter.
While it’s going to be a while before we have a large enough sample size to properly evaluate hitters, it’s actually not too early to start acknowledging statistical trends on a leaguewide basis. So let’s dive into a series of ratios, comparing where we stand after just four days into the MLB season, with the March/April numbers going back to 2014.
