Your Potential 2018 Fly Ball Revolution Beneficiaries

It’s still way too early to be analyzing anything. Heck, after Tuesday’s games, the league leader in plate appearances sits at just 33! That said, batted ball type distribution does stabilize relatively quickly, compared to other metrics. So even though we’re still not even halfway toward our 80 balls in play stabilization point, it’s worth checking in on batter fly ball rates. Perhaps we’ll get an early indication of which hitters have joined the fly ball revolution and are poised for a home run surge.

I simply compared this year’s FB% to last year and sorted the difference in descending order. In order to avoid the ridiculously small samples (though admittedly, these are all tiny samples), I filtered for hitters with at least 20 at-bats. Here are the guys you care about that might very well be the subject of surprise home run spike articles sometime in the future.

Anthony Rendon’s fly ball rate has risen two straight seasons already, pushing him up among the league leaders. So although he’s not a new member of the revolution, it’s possible he’s taking his membership to the extreme. If he settles in at a 50%+ fly ball rate, 30 homers are within reach. This is especially true because his career high HR/FB rate is just 12.3%. You have to feel like there’s ample room for growth.

So Marwin Gonzalez looks like a changed man…again. He’s now swinging and missing like never before and when he does manage to make contact, is hitting fly balls at an extreme rate. As soon as Yulieski Gurriel returns, he’ll be at risk of losing playing time, perhaps significantly. The non-Gurriel infielders aren’t going to get regular days off, George Springer ain’t sitting, Josh Reddick probably won’t either, so his best chance for playing time is in left field, where he’ll be battling less established, but still potentially solid, hitters.

Luis Valbuena falls into the same camp as Rendon as a guy who had been an extreme fly-baller, but is taking that tendency up another notch so far. Unlike Rendon, however, Valbuena has always been a fly ball guy, posting marks above 40% every season since 2013. With Shohei Ohtani truly doing his best Babe Ruth impression, I worry that Albert Pujols gets pushed to first base more frequently, costing Valbuena plate appearances.

Nick Markakis is the first guy on the list that truly looks like a surprise with a sustainable FB% spike. The others were generally high already, but Markakis has always been in the high 20% or low 30% range. Markakis has never been much of a home run hitter and hasn’t even posted an ISO above .129 since 2012. At 34, it’s possible he has decided to try adjusting to see if he could extend his career as an above average offensive player.

LOL Joey Gallo. You so silly. He had generally been in the low 50% range throughout his professional career, so extreme fly ball rates are nothing new here. Imagine if he posts a 60%+ mark all season? Say hello to an easy 50+ homers.

When you already possess near elite power like George Springer, hitting more fly balls could boost your offense to the top of the mountain. In his past three seasons, he hasn’t posted a FB% above 33.8%, so he was ripe for a FB% spike. If he could sustain some or most of this surge, he’ll approach 40 homers.

I’ve ratted on Xander Bogaerts a lot in recent years, but it’s all relative to his cost in fantasy leagues. I have nothing against him as a real baseball player! So far in the early going, his batted ball profile looks like his 2014, so there’s precedent here. His FB% has really jumped around, so it’s always a shot in the dark trying to predict what you’ll get from him.

From 2011 through 2013, Eduardo Nunez hit fly balls. Then he stopped, posting a mark above 30% just once since then. His appearance here looks the flukiest, as he has simply traded in line drives for fly balls. That will revert back to normal soon enough and he’ll be back to being the stolen base contributor for the occasional homer we all remember.