Early 2018 Fly Ball & Line Drive Exit Velocity Surgers
Exit velocity is an underlying skill that drives results. I like analyzing underlying skills. So let’s check in on the average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (FB/LD EV) surgers. Though the metric didn’t make it into my newest version of xHR/FB rate, it still correlates with offensive output and power.
| Player | 2018 HR/FB | 2018 FB/LD Exit Velocity | 2017 FB/LD Exit Velocity | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 14.3% | 97.0 | 89.3 | 7.7 |
| Howie Kendrick | 11.1% | 100.3 | 93.3 | 7.0 |
| Jose Abreu | 23.1% | 102.1 | 95.4 | 6.7 |
| Jed Lowrie | 17.6% | 97.5 | 91.4 | 6.1 |
| Eric Thames | 33.3% | 100.1 | 94.0 | 6.1 |
| Dixon Machado | 0.0% | 95.4 | 89.4 | 6.0 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 16.7% | 96.7 | 90.8 | 5.9 |
| Javier Baez | 28.6% | 99.9 | 94.0 | 5.9 |
| Mike Moustakas | 14.3% | 98.1 | 92.3 | 5.8 |
| Francisco Lindor | 7.7% | 98.4 | 92.7 | 5.7 |
| Yoan Moncada | 9.1% | 99.3 | 93.6 | 5.7 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 23.5% | 97.9 | 92.5 | 5.4 |
And to think that this EV reading doesn’t include Starling Marte’s perfect 5 for 5 day yesterday with a homer. Aside from an elevated IFFB%, all his skills have surged. It’s quickly looking like last year’s down performance was the fluke.
Jed Lowrie, power hitter? Like Marte, this mark doesn’t even include his performance yesterday when he homered. Only three teams in his career has he posted a HR/FB in the double digits, and never higher than 11.4%. At age 34 (tomorrow), it’s hard to believe he’s suddenly doing something differently. I’d figure this is just an early season hot streak.
So is Eric Thames just a fast starter or just another data point to stop paying so much attention to split half stats? I lean toward the latter.
Dixon Machado is the most interesting name so far. He’s the only one on here who has yet to homer, but is hangin’ around the big boys in EV. His fly ball rate is also way up, so perhaps he’s quietly another new participant of the fly ball revolution, but with results that have yet to materialize? He has never shown any power in the minors, so it would take a huge leap of faith to forecast any sort of offensive or power breakout now from this early EV and FB% surge.
Well hey, it’s about time Xander Bogaerts shows off the power that everyone knew he had. Too bad he’s stuck on the DL, but the early signs are that he should return to his 2016 performance level.
A depressed BABIP has somewhat hidden what has been a complete breakout for Javier Baez. A walk rate spike coupled with an improved strikeout rate, a jump in FB%, and massive power. I would still worry about all the swinging and missing, but he’s shown this kind of power once before in the minors.
It’s been an odd season so far for Francisco Lindor. On the one hand, his EV and Hard% support his power growth, and suggest his HR/FB rate should get back into the teens soon enough. On the other hand, he’s swinging and missing more than ever before, which has led to a career high strikeout rate, and the FB% spike he enjoyed last year has not been sustained. If someone is beginning to doubt the power spike from last year, buy. But remember that he’s unlikely to hit fly balls at a 40%+ clip again, so 30 homers isn’t looking good.
Strikeouts were always the concern with Yoan Moncada and he’s doing nothing so far to quell those concerns. The power (along with a massive 52% Hard%), suggests that HR/FB is heading into the teens in short order. But if he continues to swing and miss like he has, he’s going to kill you in batting average, or worse, find himself back in the minors.
After his fifth homer yesterday, DJ LeMahieu deserves an entire article. If you want confirmation of the newest fly ball revolution participant, he looks like it. His FB% has surged to a career high above 30%, the first time it has exceeded 24.9%, and he’s pulling those flies more than ever before. I’ve literally never “bought high” in my life before, but if there was a player to buy high on whose value I don’t think is that high, he’s it.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
On your blurb about Moncada you cite his Hard%. Is there a way to factor his Hard% into his K%? His Hard% is sort of inflated because he doesn’t make a lot of contact. Simply dividing the two seems like a bad idea.
hard hit % is a measurement of how well you hit the ball once you make contact, isn’t it?
Sure, your point might be true that Moncada is making contact less often, but that doesn’t really matter when considering his hard hit %.
Your post seems to imply that hard hit % could be artificially inflated by his lack of contact, and I just don’t think that’s how the statistic works. I could be wrong, though.
This is correct. You might argue that a high K% means the denominator in Hard% is smaller and more prone to fluctuation. This is true. But it’s not misleading and is completely unaffected by K%.
You’re looking for something like Hard% per PA instead of per BIP. You can get close by multiplying Hard% by (1-K%).
And I agree it can be more useful. I don’t particularly care if someone’s Hard% is 100% if they’re striking out 50% of the time.
lindor’s GB% is almost exactly what it was a year ago. his LD% is really high, but atleast he’s not hitting the ball on the ground again 50% of the time.
Stupid me for not realizing that. Those liners are going to either become grounders or flies, but a similar grounder rate to last year is a good sign that the majority become flies. With all those liners and ZERO pop-ups, it’s crazy his BABIP sits below .300.
His average launch angle is a lot lower though, and his GB/FB is higher. Still not back to pre-2017 levels at least.
baseball savant has his xwoba at .438- he’s destroying the baseball
Heads-up, Javier Baez has been intentionally walked 4 times so far (because he bats 8th). He has managed just 2 unintentional walks in 51 non-IBB PA.
Good call. He was intentionally walked 15 times last year too. Once you strip out the IBB, his unintentional BB rate is not really any different.
I’ve heard the HR rate is down…is this true? Cold weather, or has the ball reverted somewhat? if the latter…do we have to be concerned about the Lindor’s of the world now having warning track power?
Not necessarily related to this article but does it make sense to do a “pitch location“ article? My hypothesis is that with the swing plane change those pitchers that have started to throw high strikes may be able to neutralize the swing change and generate more Ks and pop ups.
No offense… this is why I called out Dixon in your other article, to which you quickly dismissed.
Right, because there are no results. His underlying skills point to better days ahead, but you certainly can’t say it’s been a hot start.
No results in terms of HR. He was 1 shy of the MLB lead in 2B at that point. And I also called out the underlying skills specifically. “Statcast data show’s he’s hitting the ball harder than ever in a better launch angle”… good article, just sayin’
One of the most interesting tidbits (for this Jays fan) from looking at exit velocities this year, is Luke Maile. The guy has been terrible his whole career. Lots of K’s, no walks, groundball hitter, middling exit velocities (85.2 MPH avg). This spring he cut his K’s down significantly, increased his walks significantly, and has been crushing the ball in the air. It’s a small sample but everything off of his bat has been a rocket and he’s using all fields. He’s averaging 97 MPH on his 12 batted balls (5th in MLB among hitters with 10+ batted balls), including two doubles at 109+ MPH which each set a new career high in EV by quite a margin). He’s had three swings-and-misses all season (75 pitches), and walked twice. I know it seems crazy, but I think he’s possibly, maybe, a pretty good hitter now.