Two years ago, I introduced you to the latest iteration of my hitter xBABIP equation, this time incorporating the effects of defensive shifts. Let’s find out which fantasy relevant hitters most underperformed their xBABIP marks in 2019, suggesting the potential for dramatic upside in 2020…if the hitter maintains those underlying skills.
I’m like everyone else out there, grinding away from every little nugget to gain an edge. The following players I’ve heard something intriguing about during various podcasts or discussion. While I should trust the analysts, I don’t. I prefer to verify what they said and see if I’ll need to adjust my projections.
Hampson was a late-round darling in the previous draft season for those hoping to get some late steals. He did nothing until September when he went off with a .903 OPS and nine steals. Several people mentioned a swing change and a quick search later, I found out about the toe tap.
“I was thinking of way too much mechanically in the box this year,” Hampson said. “What (the toe tap) has allowed me to do is just be way more in rhythm with the pitcher and (get) started, and my hands and everything else are natural from there. I don’t think about what my hands are doing. There’s a lot of things that weren’t synching up with my leg kick, and now they seem to synch up more naturally.”
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Beginning with that Aug. 25 game, Hampson has hit .344 (21-for-61) with a .397 on-base percentage and a .905 OPS in 22 games (16 starts). His 19 percent strikeout rate during this span is a marked improvement from earlier. And Hampson has two homers, six RBI, 10 runs scored – he scored 23 runs in his previous 74 games – and six stolen bases without being caught during this stretch. Indeed, with 11 stolen bases in 14 attempts, Hampson is the sixth Rockies rookie with at least 10 steals in a single season and the first since Eric Young Jr., in 2010.
So what did the top tap change in his profile Here is his season divided up into three sections with his demotion on May 12th is the first division and the August 25th game mentioned in the article being the second. Try to find a smoking gun.
Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is one of Statcast’s most important additions to the Sabermetric sphere. It’s a simple premise — estimate a hitter’s deserved production based, simply, on his combinations of exit velocity (EV) and launch angle (LA) — with robust implications and applications. It’s remarkable how powerful the metric is with just two inputs.
However, the metric is not without its faults (or complaints from those who use it). Its simplicity is beautiful but inherently and knowingly lacking, accounting minimally or not at all for:
None of this necessarily serves as an indictment of xwOBA. The number of inputs you include affects the purpose you want it to serve. That is, do you want it to be descriptive or predictive? How about both? Maybe defense shouldn’t be included, then, if we can’t reasonably expect a hitter to face the same caliber of defense each year, something that is out of his control.
Today, I move on from xHR/FB rate and its components to my xBABIP equation. Every year, there are some seemingly obvious candidate to regress (like the guy who just BABIP’d .390) or improve (like the guy who just BABIP’d .210). But what about the guys hovering within range of the league average of .298? Just because their BABIP marks were close to average doesn’t mean their skills supported such a mark. So let’s discuss hitters who posted a seemingly sustainable BABIP, but xBABIP suggests the mark was either way over their head or actually below what their skills suggested.
Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss 7 hitters who could enjoy a HR/FB rate spike in 2020, assuming they maintain the component skills they displayed in 2019. Now let’s turn to the other side, those hitters who dramatically outperformed their xHR/FB rates and could be in for regression this year, unless they improve their underlying skills, or paid off Lady Luck once again to ensure fortune is on their side. As you might expect given the home run explosion, there were more overperformers than underperformers, so I had to cut it off at 6% over xHR/FB rate.
Early this offseason, I determined that Mike Matheny doesn’t hate stolen bases, but could be a boost to the Royals stolen bases. At the time, I noted to check on Joe Maddon’s tendencies but never got to it. Then, my podcast mate, Rob Silver, basically begged me to run the same analysis for Dusty Baker. After that, one of my other team owners brought up Joe Girardi and Gabe Kapler. I was done talking to people before every manager needs to be analyzed on their stolen base tendencies. The following are the numbers on the four and the results were a little surprising.
To examine the managers’ tendencies, I compared how the baserunner’s tendencies changed with or without the manager in question. There were three groups of hitters to examine
Also, I combined all the values for an overall rate.
Finally, it’s time for the main event! After weeks discussing the various xHR/FB rate components and reviewing 2019 performance, we now set our sights toward 2020. Today, I will identify and discuss a handful of fantasy relevant names that underperformed their xHR/FB rates most significantly. Remember that this doesn’t automatically mean we should be projecting a higher HR/FB rate this season. But perhaps rather than take the hitter’s actual HR/FB rate at face value, we should substitute our xHR/FB rate mark when reviewing his historical marks and making a 2020 projection.
Last week, I identified and discussed a slew of hitters whose xHR/FB rates validated their surprisingly strong HR/FB rates. Today, let’s look at some of the disappointing hitters in HR/FB rate that were validated by a dramatic decline in xHR/FB rate. Remember, an appearance here doesn’t mean these hitters should be projected to repeat their disappointing 2019 marks, as this is merely a backward-looking analysis. We need to account for additional factors when making a projection. But all else equal, the guy with an xHR/FB rate validating his disappointing HR/FB rate should be expected to have a worse chance of rebounding than the guy who suffered a disappointing actual mark, but underperformed his xHR/FB rate.
Last spring, an industry consensus emerged – if you wanted to win, you needed to invest early and often in starting pitchers. When a consensus becomes too commonplace, a profitable contrarian approach is often available. And so I explored the possibility of finding an advantage by investing in cheaper pitchers. I dubbed it nuLIMA. To be certain, it was meant as theorycrafting, not gospel. Check it out if you’d like to revisit an old idea that might still have legs.
The setup to that article still applies.
Fantasy baseball season is heating up. Dynasty drafts are escaping the early rounds, NFBC ADPs are starting to get a serious sample size behind them, and the interminable football season finally ended when Tom Brady didn’t see his shadow. If you’re waiting to get started on your 2020 baseball prep, well… stop waiting! Get crackin’.