This season has been going on for 2 whole weeks and it is time to try to take advantage of some irritable owners and small sample sizes. A great way to do this is try to pick up some extremely low valued hitters that have a low BABIP value in exchange for players with high BABIP values. BABIP will be a major factor in determining a player batting average, RBIs and runs.
It may be a bit early to analyze velocity changes as pitchers continue to build up arm strength and we are still working with tiny sample sizes, but as you could tell by now, I am a sucker for comparisons and ranking lists. We all know that velocity has a significant impact on a pitcher’s effectiveness and all else equal, the higher the velocity, the better the results. When a pitcher suddenly experiences an increase or decrease in his average fastball velocity, it could portend a change in performance, for better or for worse. Since fantasy owners sometimes jump on pitchers quickly after just one strong outing, it is important to identify the velocity changers early on before it becomes obvious in their results.
The SwStk% metric is one of my favorites on FanGraphs. We would expect the statistic to be a good proxy for a pitcher’s raw stuff, as a swinging strike is the ultimate pitch result. Therefore, it should correlate highly with strikeout rate. And intuitively, it does. From 2001-2010 using a sample size of 59 pitchers, SwStk% had a 0.87 correlation with K/9. It is not higher because luck still plays a role, and K/9 includes called strikes which obviously SwStk% does not. So now that we know SwStk% matches up with K/9 quite well, I like to rank pitchers by each to determine who might have some hidden strikeout rate upside or downside.
We held what might perhaps be the first keeper auction experts league on the 31st. The results were epic.
At least, they felt that way after so many adult sodas, so many auctions.
So many broken dreams.
On Saturday, I discussed a strategy that is rarely talked about, as on the surface, it sounds foolish. I suggested considering actually trying to buy high and sell low. I argued that buying low and selling high has become much more difficult to accomplish in recent years in this age of so much great statistical analysis that is freely available. As a result, the buy high, sell low, trade is much easier to pull off, and if executed carefully, could still pay off. However, the traditional buy low, sell high trade could still be made. Here are several scenarios in which I think this type of trade has the best chance of being pulled off.
No, the title was not a typo. Now that the season is officially underway, we will soon be greeted to message board posts from panicked fantasy owners nervous about their slow starting stars. Numerous buy low articles will be published suggesting that the listed players will be quite easy to acquire, but in practice, these players are increasingly difficult to actually pry away. When every fantasy site is recommending the same guys to go out and trade for cheaply, don’t you think the owners of these players are reading these same articles and are smart enough not to give them up so quickly? So I propose a different strategy: the buy high and sell low.
Coming off a season in which he posted a gruesome 5.18 ERA, James Shields is a favorite sleeper and undervalued asset of the statistically-inclined fantasy owner. The majority of these owners will cite Shields’ career high strikeout rate of 8.3 in 2010 as a primary reason to be bullish. In fact, I even mentioned it when I boldly predicted that Shields would post a sub-3.80 ERA in 2011. However, we are being slightly fooled by relying on that sneaky K/9 ratio.
Stealing Jeff’s format from his post yesterday, I’ll be looking at some various shortstops around the fantasy landscape. It’s been a few weeks since shortstops were discussed in these pages, aside from going over how bad they are, and while not much has transpired, there is something to be said.
The only major news coming out of the shortstop community lately is the concern over Stephen Drew’s availability for opening day due to an abdominal injury. The MRI results were negative, and while it doesn’t look like he’ll be put on the disabled list, he could still be held out a few days as a precautionary measure. The problem for the Diamondbacks, and potentially for fantasy owners, is that the team doesn’t have a suitable backup for Drew. They recently put Tony Abreu on waivers, so he could potentially be claimed by another team. That leaves utility man Willie Bloomquist, but his .299 OBP last year isn’t appealing on any level.
We have Drew rated as the sixth best shortstop this season, and we know the SS talent pool isn’t very deep so any loss to an upper tier player will be felt more so than positions.
In case Drew is out for any extended period of time here are some shortstops to consider that are owned in less than 10% of all ESPN or Yahoo! leagues.
Yuniesky Betancourt (7% Yahoo!)
I never thought I’d be writing a blurb Yuniesky, but here I am. Somehow in 2010 he managed to hit 16 home runs after never showing that much power potential anywhere throughout his career. If you believe he magically found a power stroke and will continue to hit 10+ homers then by all means pick him up. He does have a full time gig, which most players with such a low ownership percentage do not, so if anything he’ll get the at bats. His average won’t kill you (.272 career), but he doesn’t run or provide relevance in any other category.
Cliff Pennington (1.1% ESPN)
Another shortstop with job security, Pennington’s only asset is his ability to steal bases. He only hit .250 and got on base at a .319 clip in 2010, but managed to swipe 29 bases. Oakland’s offense is fairly weak once again, so Pennington should get the green light to run whenever he feels the need. For someone with no power, he would be well served to try and flip his GB (35.6%) and FB (43.0%) percentages this season. If, and it’s a big if, he’s able to do that his value will surely increase.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (3% Yahoo)
A player with multipositional eligibility (2B, SS, OF), Hairston is once again in a part time job, this time with the Nationals. He should see some at bats in a platoon with Rick Ankiel in centerfield, and will undoubtedly see action at the other up the middle positions as well. The past two seasons Hairston has averaged roughly 450 at bats and hit 10 home runs in each campaign. That type of power plays at a weak hitting position like shortstop. Playing time will be hard to pinpoint, but in a pinch there are worse options.
Most fantasy leagues allow owners a few DL spots and now it is time to begin to use those positions productively. For the past few weeks, several players were known to be injured for 2011 season (ex. Adam Wainwright), but they have not yet been placed on the official DL. In the last few days, teams have begun to officially place players on the DL and the list looks to expand a ton in the next few days as the regular season begins. Now is the time to exploit these extra roster spots. Here are a few suggestions for roster management as the DL list expands.
I will be looking at individual names as the DL expands later in the week.
This is my favorite pre-season post of the year. Nothing is more enjoyable than coming up with wacky, out on a limb predictions that just may come true. Of course, all of my bold predictions have some sort of statistical basis, so you won’t be seeing anything like “Juan Pierre hits 20 home runs”. After reading my list and nodding your head in agreement or ridiculing my crazy thoughts, feel free to share your own off the wall predictions in the comments section.
