20 Bold Predictions for 2011
This is my favorite pre-season post of the year. Nothing is more enjoyable than coming up with wacky, out on a limb predictions that just may come true. Of course, all of my bold predictions have some sort of statistical basis, so you won’t be seeing anything like “Juan Pierre hits 20 home runs”. After reading my list and nodding your head in agreement or ridiculing my crazy thoughts, feel free to share your own off the wall predictions in the comments section.
Rajai Davis hits 15 HRs– His career high in a single season is just five, but a move to the homer-happy Jays and a spring training power surge (four home runs and a .429 ISO) suggest that double digit home runs could be reachable.
Brandon Allen hits 20 HRs– With strong minor league power numbers and only Xavier Nady, Russell Branyan and Juan Miranda ahead of him between first base and the outfield, he could back into significant playing time quite easily.
Casper Wells hits 20 HRs and tallies 10 SBs– Magglio Ordonez hasn’t had 500 at-bats since 2008, Austin Jackson could take a tumble once his BABIP regresses and Ryan Raburn is no lock given his first full-time opportunity. Wells has shown impressive power and good speed during his minor league career and just needs an injury or poor play to get his chance.
Matt Joyce clubs 30 HRs– Finally has his shot at full-time at-bats, though he will likely sit against lefties. With a career fly ball rate of 48%, Joyce won’t require a hefty HR/FB ratio to hit 20 home runs, or 30 for that matter.
Ichiro Suzuki posts a sub-.300 AVG– One of these years it will happen. His contact rate was a career worst in 2010 and at age 37, you have to think his speed is going to start waning. Based on my projections, even a .330 BABIP, which is still well above league average, would result in a batting average below .300
Peter Bourjos hits 15 HRs and swipes 40 bags– Bourjos’ power spiked in 2010 at Triple-A, and that carried over during his time with the Angels. Besides excellent steals numbers, his triples rates also show a hitter with blazing speed.
Dexter Fowler outearns Shane Victorino– Nothing against Victorino, but Fowler has just as much power potential and at least as much raw speed as Shane. The depleted Phillies offense gives Fowler another boost in this comparison.
Adrian Gonzalez swats fewer than 30 HRs– It has boggled my mind all draft season that Gonzalez has been picked as early as the middle of the first round. Clearly fantasy owners are either forgetting about his shoulder surgery or think that the move to Fenway is so significant that it completely offsets it. The bet here is that the surgery saps his power early on and a possible second half recovery will not be enough.
Chris Iannetta earns top 5 catcher value– Iannetta has shown fantastic power in his career, but a terrible BABIP the last two seasons and serious impatience from the organization have conspired against him. Contact issues are a concern, but if he hits 25 home runs, then a .260-.270 batting average would be acceptable.
Jason Heyward hits fewer than 20 HRs– As much power as scouts say he has and his frame suggests, the ceiling will be quite low when you are chopping 55% of your batted balls into the ground. The contact rate should improve, but the nearly 17% HR/FB ratio will likely fall, which could put him close to the 20 home run barrier, but not over it.
Alex Gordon 30 HRs– Like Rickie Weeks who finally had the year we all expected last season, this is the year for Alex Gordon. Or so I think it is. Gordon apparently made some changes to his swing during the winter, and though I rarely pay attention to spring training results, maybe his actually mean something (5 home runs, .381 ISO).
Clayton Kershaw’s ERA exceeds 4.00– Though he has posted an ERA below 3.00 the past two seasons, his xFIP has never been below 3.80. No one has the skills to keep their HR/FB ratio at the 6.3% rate that Kershaw’s career mark is at right now. Once that rises, his ERA will jump as well. He improved his control last season, but there’s always the chance that his development does not continue in a straight line and he regresses in that area. Worse control, plus luck neutralization, and suddenly Kershaw is starting at a 4.00 ERA.
Jason Hammel outearns Ubaldo Jimenez– Did you know that Hammel’s xFIP was only .08 higher than Jimenez’s last season (3.81 to 3.73)? Hammel continues to get bitten by the BABIP bug, while Jimenez has benefitted from good fortune there as well as in his HR/FB ratio. All it takes is for these metrics to move closer to the league average and suddenly Hammel’s results would look quite similar to Jimenez’s.
Edwin Jackson earns top 20 starter value– It is almost always noise when a player attributes better results to fixing his mechanics, but in Jackson’s case, the results overwhelmingly support this notion. When Jackson was traded to the White Sox last season, he worked with Don Cooper on his mechanics, and his skills surged (9.2 K/9, 3.15 xFIP, increased velocity).
James Shields posts a sub-3.80 ERA– Yeah yeah, I know he has been good before, but he has actually only posted an ERA below 3.80 once in his career. Last season was a disaster on the surface, but he posted a career high 8.3 K/9 and a career best 3.72 xFIP. He is an easy rebound candidate and an ERA below 4.00 should come as no surprise.
Joe Blanton outearns Trevor Cahill– Simply to illustrate just how down I am on Cahill, I decided to compare him to Joe Blanton. My projections for each value Blanton at $4 and Cahill at $0 in a standard 12-team mixed league. Of course, if Cahill could rediscover the magic that enabled him to post strong strikeout rates during his minor league days, then I will look foolish.
Jeremy Hellickson is the most valuable Rays pitcher– For most, this will come down to Hellickson versus David Price. Despite all the talk about Price’s awesome breakout season in 2010, his xFIP was a much less impressive 3.99. Hellickson has dominated at every minor league stop and posted a fantastic 4.1 K/BB ratio during his short time with the Rays last season. Some more ground balls and fewer fly balls would be nice to see, however.
Matt Thornton leads baseball in saves– Probably not that bold given that we all know how highly skilled Thornton is. But many people are still cautious about “unproven” closers. Supposed spring training competitor Chris Sale has thrown a whopping 10.1 minor league innings in his entire career and another 23.1 innings with the Sox last season. Plus, he’s a lefty. Do you really think he will steal any save opportunities from Thornton? I don’t either.
Jason Motte leads the Cardinals in saves– Ryan Franklin is a free agent at the end of the season, and not very good to begin with. The Wainwright-less Cards could struggle to stay in contention all season and decide to cash in Franklin at the trade deadline. This would open the door for Motte to do his thing.
Luke Gregerson saves 20 games– Heath Bell is also a free agent in 2012 and the Padres are highly unlikely to contend. With one of the strongest bullpens in baseball and a bevy of options to shut the door in the ninth, it would be foolish of the Pads to hang onto him. Gregerson’s skill set is superb and he should have no problem transitioning into the closer role and continuing to dominate.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Nice post. Need some help with a trade.
6×5, keeper, h2h league. OPS extra batting cat. Which side:
Stanton and Haren for Alvarez and CC?
stanton/haren
Post it at TradeBashers.com and see what the community thinks.
It’s basically a whole site dedicated to answering questions exactly like yours, Sal. You post the trade, people vote for one side or the other, and at the end of the voting you know what percent of the general community prefer one side and what percent prefer the other.
I got Edwin Jackson in the very last round of my draft.
Stanton and haren
I was actually thinking the exact same thing about Rajai Davis and 15 HRs yesterday. Glad to see I’m not alone (and not entirely nuts)!
Now these are bold! Good stuff!
I like your predictions. I hope you are wrong about Ichiro! though.
My bold prediction as a Mariner homer is that Justin Smoak hits .280 with 25+ home runs this year. He’ll be on my watch list all season in my deeper leagues.
I liked Smoak a lot better when he was a Ranger. Safeco is really going to hamper his home run potential unfortunately. It would be great if he became a star though, how badly do you want to hear him called “The Smoak Monster” on tv??
I agree about the switch from Arlington to Seattle, but Safeco is pretty good for lefties so he should do ok from the left side.
I would love to hear him called the smoak monster. I believe his walk up music is smoke over water too.
Surprisingly bearish on Heyward. I have to wonder if that 55% GB rate last year had anything to do with the thumb injury he tried playing through before going on the DL June 28th? What site can you get Minor league GB/FB rates from, looked but couldn’t find it. He hit .181/.287/.245 in June after a .337/.453/.628 May.
Have to agree on J-Hey. I have him down for .277/.382/.469 with 18 HRs, which is still pretty good, but will make him a huge disappointment given where he was drafted by so many.
I think there’s a good chance Heyward’s HR/FB% will drop a bit as the article suggests, but a far greater chance his GB% will drop. I’m not sure if minor league rates are available, but there’s very few players with anywhere near Heyward’s power profile with established GB/FB rates as extreme as his. He may not hit enough balls in the air to become a premium power hitter, but I doubt he’ll continue to hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls.
Hunter Pence is probably the most extreme GB hitter of active players with power anywhere near Heyward. Even if Heyward only increases his FB% to Pence levels, and even if we don’t make any adjustments for a projected increase in contact rates or playing time, it would still only take about a 15% HR/FB% to reach 20 HR.
Obviously injury could reduce his totals, but he’ll really need to sustain an unusual batted ball profile or dip significantly in raw power to fail to reach 20 HR in a healthy season.
StatCorner.com has minor leagues rates. They were around 50% at A and A+, but 39% at AA in a slightly smaller sample size. I agree that you have to think his GB rate will drop, but it’s no guarantee of course. And hey, these were bold predicitons remember!
Billy Butler and Delmon Young are 2 guys who come to mind with great power potential but prohibitively high GB% (Although it looks like Young may be showing signs of life finally).
I think people are undervaluing Trevor Cahill so much that it is at the point where it will be tough for him not to be extremely valuable in 2011 considering where teams will be acquiring him (or for how many auction dollars). Who knows how the W-L record shakes out, but I like his overall skillset as much or more than Brett Anderson/Gio Gonzalez’s & I think his floor is safer than people give him credit for (certainly safer than either of those 2 to me).
I’d be very surprised if he isn’t a Top 30-35 starting pitcher in 2011 & I expect his K/9 to climb this year. Maybe not to the level of Jon Lester pre-2009 or something, but Cahill is a top talent who has already proven a success in MLB & I think he continues to build on that.
I’d look at him as a poor man’s Clay Buchholz. I wouldn’t touch either player personally if I can avoid it (though I took Clay for his W’s in the ottoneu league I’m in after grabbing Halladay, Lincecum, Weaver, and Chacin) but I can see the utility for other owners who are less obsessed about straight up winning the pitching categories.
Will Venable paces your Rajai Davis/Peter Bourjos projections. 100 R, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 45 SB, .280 AVG.
Great post. Like em all except for the blanton/Cahill and the Kershaw ones.
A. Escobar steals 40+.
J.Rivera goes 25/90
J.Niemann is the Rays top pitcher. Say he going to start throwing his slider again, which was his out pitch in his early days.
I like the Escobar one, though I personally don’t think it’s too bold because I had him projected for 40 last year!
If you look at the splits of Adrian Gonzalez, he’s always hit about 2/3 of his homers on the road. So if you expect him to repeat 20 road HRs again, and 20 home HRs instead of the 10 he hits at Petco, projecting 40 is pretty easy. Of course, the shoulder surgery doesn’t make that a given.
i wouldn’t consider 40 bold for him, I think it’s a lock if his shoulder holds up. 50 is bold.
I’d have to agree. The shoulder is the only question. Last year he was playing hurt and the year before when he hit 40, 28 of those 40 were on the road. Let us also not forget that playing in the NL West, your getting a lot of road AB’s at AT&T and Dodger Stadium, replace those with YSIII and Camden and the HR total could be scary.
“Let us also not forget that playing in the NL West, your [sic]getting a lot of road AB’s at AT&T and Dodger Stadium, replace those with YSIII and Camden and the HR total could be scary.”
You’re also getting just as many road ABs at Chase and Coors, two of the top 3 or 4 hitter-friendly parks in the majors.
Ok Mike, Fess up. Point us to last year’s predictions so we all can see how well you did against them…
p.s. I agree on a number of your predictions. A Gonzalez went for $43 in our keeper Rotisserie league. I loved seeing the money spent, but just a bit too much in my mind…
Yeah I was just searching for last year’s post.
The last couple of years were posted on FantasyPros911.com. Last year I think I did 25%-30% correct, which I was pleased with. It is also important to understand that sometimes the exact number may not be right, but the idea was. For example, I think I said last year that David Wright would rebound to hit 30 HRs, but he hit 29, so wasn’t sure whether count it as right or not. Technically it was wrong, but the idea was right.
I’d take 25-30% correct on projections.
Hope you’re wrong on Rajai Davis. Play in a 16 team H2H keeper, and traded him for Valverde (needed a closer, as the math tells you there aren’t 2 for each team, and I start with first three in division games, couldn’t wait too long with a hole at RP).
Didn’t love Davis, but he looks great this Spring.
I agree on Thornton, but note that he is also a lefty…
Yes, of course, which is why there would be no chance for some sort of platoon closing situation where Sale might steal some opps versus an all-righty trio.
adams will be the closer if bell is traded. gregerson is more of an option next year.
I managed Rajai pretty cheap in my keeper league. At the time, people were balking at the price (assumingly unaware of the way Toronto has transformed hitters, and his spring trainings #s… which isn’t everything to take into account, but it sure helped my decision). But I’m thinking if he can top 10 HRs, steal 40-50 and with most projections having him hovering around 80 runs, an uptick in 5-10 HRs could push that number up, even.
I’m really excited to see what he can do atop that lineup. I sure hope for big things.
I love this post, too. I believe Edwin Jackson was dropped in my standard 12 team roto a few days ago and may be a FA at this point. I should just jump on that now.
Absolutely. I was so sure I would end up with him in my league, but he went for much more than I expected. Still below my own value, but the shock that people were bidding made me stay away. I’ll hope for a slow start and a buy low opportunity, or possibly seeing him get dropped.
Love the post! Kudos for the Hammel recognition. I think this is his breakthrough season.
14 team*
Which makes it even stranger to me that someone would drop him… he’s now mine!
Very bold predictions, I give you credit for going out on a limb, especially on the Gordon pick. I’d take Kila to hit 30 HR’s before Gordon though. Good calls on Thornton and Jackson, two of my favorite pitchers this year, and they are on a loaded team.
A few of my bold predictions:
Jay Bruce will outperform teammate Joey Votto
Jorge Posada posts top 5 catcher numbers
John Axford finishes a top 5 closer
Josh Beckett suffers another 5+ ERA season
Jeremy Hellickson is the best Rays starter
Mike Moustakas is a top 10 3B by season’s end
Jason Heyward is a top 5 outfielder
Gonzalez hits with power to the opposite field. I would project a higher BABIP because he will bouncing balls off (and over) the Green Monster all season!
Hey, Podhozer, tell everyone about last year’s Justin Maxwell prediction!!!
Haha, looks like someone read last year’s article. Yeah, Maxwell was one of my big misses.
Ryan Zimmerman is fantasy’s top 3B at year’s end.
Carlos Pena hits 40 hr’s.
Adam Dunn hits 45
Not hard for Dunn since he averages 40 per year anyways.
Wait till after I take Kershaw and A-Gonz as cornerstones to my keeper league. How dare you
They will be fine.
Alex Gordon has homered off Oscar Villareal, Adam Jorgenson, Fernando Cabrera, Doug Fister, and Ramon Ramirez this spring. He’s always been able to hit AAA-caliber pitching, but I still don’t see him hitting in the majors. Also, he hit 6 HR during spring training 2009, then struck out 8 times in his first 7 games before getting injured. I can see him being a 5th OF, but I don’t know how he could manage 30 HR.
nice update, that’s something that most people won’t see. You just hear that he’s having a great spring, not who he’s doing against.
Thanks.
He hasn’t dropped quite as low as Fowler, but I also see Denard Span easily outearning Victorino.
How about the Royals will have two players top 30 HRs? They have only had 10 in their history and the last was Jermaine Dye (33) is 2000. Between Butler, Kila, and Gordon – 2 of 3 will do it.
These appear way too optimistic. Each appears less than 10% likely, which makes them ridiculous guesses rather than bold predictions. Even if the idea is obvious (i.e. Rajai Davis will hit more HR than expected this year), exaggerating the idea with outlandish projections makes it silly. Davis has hit 12 HR in his entire career.
Predicting that Hellickson will have a better season than Price is what happens when you spend all day brooding over stat sheets and forget to watch actual games.
That said, I like a lot of these predictions and they’re definitely bold.
And people are supposed to watch every team’s games…how? There is a limit to the number of hours in a day. Also, I’m not paying for MLB TV as long as they have their ridiculous blackout policies.
Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran combine for more stolen bases than Jose Reyes.
James Loney hits 28+ HR.
Nick Markakis, Mark Reynolds, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, Vlad Guerrero, Brian Roberts and Matt Wieters all hit 20+ HR.
1st = ridiculous, not bold
2nd = ridiculous, not bold
3rd is a possibility if you take out Roberts.
Homer Bailey emerges as the best pitcher in the Reds’ rotation. Check out the stats in his second half last year.
Jon Papelbon loses his closer job within the first 3 weeks of the season.
The Oakland Athletics rotation emerges as the best in baseball (Including the Phillies).
Coco Crisp returns to his glory days, posting numbers like he did in Cleveland.
Daric Barton puts up a .375 wOBA, and still gets ripped on for not having enough power for the position.
The Yankees finished 4th in the AL East, behind Tampa, Red Sox and Blue Jays.
Chipper Jones has a renaissance year, reaching 500 at bats for the first time since 2007 (last time before that was 2003).
1st- highly unlikely
2nd- possibile, but unlikely
3rd- highly, highly unlikely
4rd- possibile
5th- insanity, Blue Jays are probs the worst in the division, and the Yankees probs beat the Rays too with offense
6th- posslbe, don’t know how great a 500 ab’s they would be
Nate McLouth wins comeback player of the year award.
Pennington and jed lowrie finish as top 10 ss in standard 5 x 5 scoring.
Mike or anyone else. Prediction on Kila’s homerun total this year?
My official projection is 23 in 500 at-bats. That would prorate to 28 given 600 at-bats.
I find it hard to believe that a pitcher who will presumably be on a strict pitch count and an innings limit will be more valuable than the reigning AL Cy Young runner-up. Unless, of course, the Rays are stupid AND lucky. As most analysts worth their salt realize, innings matter, a lot.
My official projection and resulting dollar values have Price earning $15 in 215 innings and Hellickson $12 in just 180 innings. So that’s close enough to make it totally possible Hellickson outearns Price even given the innings difference.
Except Hellickson is not going to approach anywhere NEAR 180 innings. Only if Rays are stupid and lucky, and I know they are not stupid. 150 innings is probably the best you can hope for. He is not David Price, yet.
I think you’re crazy on the Kershaw prediction, lol. Clearly you don’t see him pitch very often. I hope you were watching tonight.
You could watch a pitcher pitch all you want, but the bottom line is that no pitcher has the skills to keep his HR/FB ratio at the level Kershaw’s sits at during his short career. Since you are suggesting that you watch Kershaw pitch all the time, what makes his stuff and ability to pitch so different than any of the other top pitchers in the game whose HR/FB ratios generally sit around 10%?
For one, the park. You didn’t say his xFIP would be over 4.00, you said his ERA would be, so it matters.
Secondly, xFIP doesn’t account for IFFB% well at all. Hence, his tERA the last two years have been 3.10 and 3.06. Not sure what his SIERA is, but i’m sure it would be in line.
I don’t think there’s much indication he’s going to have an ERA over 4.
I think he’s more likely to regress than progress, if nothing else than because it’s hard to go LOWER than a 2.9 ERA.
In his entire professional career the highest ERA of his career was 4.26, which was in half a season at the MLB level in his rookie year. The next highest in the majors is 2.91 last year and 2.79 the year before that. What indication do you have that he will suddenly have an ERA a full point higher than the last two seasons other than the fact that he has a low HR/FB %? Kershaw is only getting better each year. That’s not to say, like Chad said, he will have a BETTER ERA this year, because I’m guessing he will have around a 3.00-3.10 ERA, but that he’s been doing this for 2 and a half years in the majors with the same success level, so why wouldn’t he be able to sustain it? Because of the league average? Pitchers like Kershaw, Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Hanson, etc… aren’t average, so I don’t think they should be expected to regress to a league average in very many categories.
The last season or so he’s been using a slider which has become extremely effective, and essentially ditched the curve that he was hugely known for since he was drafted. Unfortunately the curve hasn’t been a big strikeout pitch or go-to pitch in tough situations, but the slider is better than most of us expected the curve to be. And if Dave Cameron is right about Kershaw throwing the slider harder on average, then he may start being even more effective. You take that into consideration as well as the fact he’s done a great job since his 2nd start in May of 2010 to limit his walks, and it would make a lot more sense to believe he will have an ERA similar to 09 and 10 rather than over a 4.00 ERA.
Also, his fastball is insanely good. From 2009-2011 he is 2nd in the league for fastball value, slightly behind Matt Cain and right ahead of Felix, Lee, and Lilly. The slider, if you were wondering, is 7th in that same time span. Also, even though he doesn’t use the curve all that much anymore, he is still in the top 25 in value for that pitch as well.
I’m no expert, but I could take Kershaw with you all day. From 2009-2011 he’s 6th in IFFB% as well, again similar to what Chad pointed out. His tERA has been very good because of this. He has a 42% Fly ball % in that same time span, but you don’t see a good portion of those going to the track and almost going out. Basically he’s not teetering on the brink of doubling his HR/FB %.
Sure, it could happen. No doubt. But is it likely to? I’d put my money on no.
Kershaw pitches half of his games at Dodger Stadium and a significant number in SD and SF.
His career HR/FB is 6.2%. I don’t expect much regression when compared to other pitchers in the NL West:
Billingsley (Career HR/FB) = 7.6%
Lincecum = 7.2%
Cain = 7.0%
Kuroda = 8.4%
Latos = 8.6%
Wow… it appears that most SD, SF, and LAD pitchers HR/FB are well under 10%. Whodathunkit?
You make it sound like there is no difference between 6.2% and 8.6% or even 7.2%. Kershaw had 225 FBs last year, a difference of just one percent is 2.25 more HRs. Assuming he allows an average of 2 ERs per HR, that’s 4.5 more ERs allowed, which would have raised his ERA last year to 3.10. 2% difference? 3.30 ERA. Now, I’m not saying I think he’s going to have an ERA over 4 all of a sudden, but given that he’s had pretty damn good luck the past two years (BABIP of .269 and .275), I don’t think it’s a ridiculous prediction.
I’m predicting a major injury for myself due to my nagging sore elbow. I will post 56 innings, 59 hits, 22 walks, 25 ER, 47 K, 4 W, 3 L. My boy Hiroki Kuroda will post these stats because he will be completely healthy: 267 IP, 203 H, 50 BB, 76 ER, 304 K, 23 W, 9 L.
I don’t agree with Kershaw. I think I will get the closers job from Kimbrel in a couple of months, finishing with 72 IP, 51 H, 24 BB, 88 K, 15 ER, and 26 SV
I think I’ll produce 87 IP, 106 H, 24 BB, 52 ER, 3 W, 8 L, ad will be optioned to the minors just after the All-Star Break
I have decided to hit for power, so a .233 BA and 27 HR will be in order.
I’ve decided to start hitting lefties better, so a .312 BA, 48 HR, 144 RBI, and a .430 OBP should be around my season average for the next 10 years (if I stay healthy)
HEY THANKS FOR THE VOTE OF CONFIDENCE, BOSS.
In all seriousness, thank you to Pod for giving me the nuts to take a gamble on Edwin.
When he was a FA in my league (14 team, standard 5×5 roto, 1 DL spot)– and I actually don’t know if he was cut or simply ignored in the draft (which would be kind of stunning, but as is he’s only owned in 59% of yahoo leagues even though I fully expect that to jump a lot overnight)– I had Jake Peavy on my roster, and then Brad Lidge hit the DL spot as well. I instantly dropped Peavy and DL’d Lidge, and picked Edwin up. There’s been no looking back, although I did drop Lidge and reclaim Peavy, only to drop Peavy again to DL Matusz and pick up Britton off of waivers.
As of now I sit approx. 13 points in first with 107.5 points in my league, and can’t wait ’til the standings roll over this morning after Edwin’s crazy outing.
I certainly can see him being a top-10 pitcher in the AL when things are said and done, especially if he can hold up. Seeing 120 pitches this early is worrysome to a degree, but Gio threw that many a few days ago, and at least Edwin has some familiarity with being up in that zone (149 in his no-no for instance).
I hope he can stay healthy and doesn’t wear down. The longer he pitches like this, the longer I can have a potential fantasy ace on a team who had virtually no one to fill that role (Danks or Ervin Santana were my best SPs on an offense-packed team– until Edwin went on this tear).
Heyward’s high GB percentage was largely due to the thumb injury, which was bad in June but really bothered him the entire year. I can’t find the stats on it, but as someone who watched him the entire year, I can say that this is definitely true. It’s more likely that he hits 30 HR this year than he doesn’t hit 20.
Looking foolish on Cahill so far.
Everybody is looking foolish on Cahill thus far. Don’t understand how experts solely look into numbers and not watch how a player plays, or count in the ability to grow. But, regardless, Cahill showed potential to K and get GB outs in the minors…so nothing that shocking here. At keast to non-experts.
Although I’ve posted good numbers, I still only have 1 homer. But my owners t hank you for putting my name on your preseason projections.
Kershaw is currently looking at a BABIP of .295, which is .02 higher than in 2010, and a HR to FB ratio of 11.1%, and his ERA is 3.12. Plus, in the last two years, he’s been a lot better in the second two thirds of the season than in the first third. Considering how hard he is to hit, it’s hard to imagine his HR to FB ratio will go anywhere but down, and since his career has started, his walks have only gone down, so the chances are that his ERA will go below 3.12, and there looks to be nearly no chance his ERA goes above 4.
I make you look good…
Hey moron, how’d that Kershaw prediction work out?
Yeah, that’s what I thought.
How’d that Ichiro, Gordon, Bourjous, A-Gonz, Heyward, James Shields prediction work out?
Yeah I keep telling the authors here they underestimate Kershaw and they don’t listen. Every year I tell them Kershaw is only gonna get better and every year they project a regression. They completely ignore the pattern where Kershaw’s WHIP has fallen EVERY SINGLE YEAR. If you look at my posts last year and the year before and the year before I keep telling them Kershaw will be a top SP as soon as 2011-2012.
Next year these authors will either expect another non existent regression or act like they never doubted Kershaw. But these guys are David Price fans. They keep overhyping Price and underestimating Kershaw. And as I told them Price’s 2010 season was a fluke (again you can check my comments before the season to see this) and they again rated Price the better SP. Yeah how’s Price doing too? Kershaw 20-5 2.27 ERA and Price 12-13 with a 3.34 ERA.
I think 90% of the users here know more than the authors. The authors just play favorites there is no science behind their predictions. Even Billy Beane followed player trends.
Also the reason I prefer HS players over college players in general is the fact that if their not well known in HS then there are some issues with them that takes them being in college to figure it out.
For instance
David Price has good stuff but his childish attitude may prevent him from reaching his potential. It’s apparent he is childish too. The pitching poorly in the minors one year because he didn’t wanna be there. The telling his minor league teammates he was the star. Him not wanting to play in another All-Star game so he made up an injury to avoid playing in it but was find to pitch his scheduled start. His not being able to handle pain with him getting hit on his non throwing part of his body which wouldn’t affect his pitching performance but didn’t wanna deal with it. But he was fine to go his next start. If he ever matures he could be great, but right now he’s looking like the Manny Ramirez of starters.
Jered Weaver had great stuff but had an attitude and lacked control in high school. He had to go to college to mature and learn control. But the worry there is his attitude could come back one day.
Justin Verlander I believe had to go to college to deal with control problems as well.
Stephen Strasburg has a 92-95 MPH fastball which is average for a RHP. He went to college where his coaches had him overthrow allowing his fastball to reach 100 MPH. Which if you don’t know overthrowing can shorten your big league career. Anyways he comes back from injury and his manager tells him to throw normal to prolong his career and only over throw when needed, his fastball goes back to 92-95 MPH. He still has other pitches that can assure him a lower ERA but he’ll more likely end up more like Greg Maddux than Nolan Ryan. Which is still great but he’s not gonna strikeout out 10 per nine innings unless he is overthrows. And he wouldn’t of been a first round pick even after college had he only thrown a 92-95 MPH.
So yeah people need to examine things. Kershaw I knew would be better than Price even though Price was a number 1 overall pick because Price was a nobody coming out of HS where as Kershaw was a top 10 pick and the first HS pitcher taken. Clayton Kershaw will be better than Strasburg in the end and will be better than David Price in the end. I have also been on record saying before Strasburg even threw his first pitch that Kershaw was the better starter and that Strasburg would be injury prone unless he stopped overthrowing. People called me crazy on both accounts, but I was right on both accounts.
So you *knew* Kershaw was going to be better than Price *because* he was the first high school pitcher taken in the draft and Price was a “nobody” out of high school? Did you also know that Chris Volstad was going to be this freaking awesome since he was the first HS pitcher taken the year prior?
haha… Clayton’s ERA exceeds 4.00?
Maybe a reconsidering?