Super 2 Ownership Rates
Teams try to avoid having a rookie get labeled with the Super 2 status so they can pay the rookie less over their career. The call up time is coming soon, so it now looks like it may be time to pick up one of these rookies before other fantasy owners in your league.
Teams avoiding the Super 2 status usually have an idea when the deadline has passed. Last year for example both Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton were both promoted to the majors on June 8th. Generally, fantasy owners will take note of possible players that will be promoted and seem to pick them up a few days early. I never knew when owners started picking up these players, so I tracked a few of the players since this season started.
At the beginning of the season, I asked my fellow writers at Fangraphs for names of players that may be held back to avoid Super 2 status. About 15 players were mentioned and so far this season, 11 of them still remain in the minors. Here are the players I tracked:
Mike Moustakas
Dustin Ackley
Desmond Jennings
Lonnie Chisenhall
Jordan Lyles
Jason Kipnis
Jarrod Parker
Devin Mesoraco
Mark Rogers
Chris Carter
Brett Lawrie
Of these 11 players, 3 (Moustakas, Ackley and Jennings) have maintained some level of ownership rate at ESPN. Here are the ownership rates since the beginning of the season:
It can be seen from these 3 players that their ownership was higher before the season started and dropped to a minimum about a month into the season. In the last couple weeks, the ownership rate has begun to creep up. All the ownership rates are near or less than 1%, so in most leagues these players are available. I have no idea how much the rates will continue to increase (that is why I am tracking the data), but it may be time to pick up any of these players if you plan on it. I will continue tracking these players until the call ups begin and a few weeks after the call ups. I will then report back with the final results.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
This would be better if you analyzed the guys who have been picked up like Hosmer and Belt. I’m also wondering how Montero isn’t on the list.
I know that as a Royals fan, I didn’t expect hosmer to progress as fast and expected to see him in August.
Belt was in the majors to start the seasons.
Montero is probably not being held down because of super 2 status, more likely because of Yankee politics
i bet montero doesn’t come up this year unless someone gets injured, not counting a september call up.
Does anyone know when the super 2 deadline is?
The super 2 deadline is a moving target based on when other rookies get called up. I believe it’s supposed to grant second-year arbitration rewards to the top 40% of rookies from the prior year, based on service time. I might have that number wrong.
It usually falls at the end of May or early June but, as more teams are gaming the system, it has fallen back a few extra days in recent years.
Adam: It’s actually top 17 percent. But well said. Here’s the explanation from MLB:
“…a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.”
Lawrie could have a Braun-level impact when he gets the call. Kid was born to mash a baseball.
Out of these 11 prospects, which is the best bet to produce this year for my fantasy team?
Lawrie but it depends on playing every day. Jennings won’t be a guarantee imo.
I like Rizzo the most though.
Hey Jeff,
All things considered, Lawrie or Moustakas? I’m in a head-to-head points league and I have Encarnacion at 3B. I’m obviously not sure how that will turn out and I’d like to have someone in place in case it doesn’t work out.
Thanks.
I would take Lawrie first, he is a little more rounded, higher avg and sb.
Moustakas – if you need HRs and have the other stats cover, he is fine. I see him producing like Mike Stanton. It may take a while to completely come around.
What about Kyle Gibson? He most likely does not fall into Super Two talk, but do you think he’ll be called up this year or next? If this year, Sept callups or before? Thanks! I’m holding onto Lawrie not only for his bat, but also his multi-position eligibility (2b/3b) he’ll get per CBS Sports.
I am just not a huge fan on waiting for pitching to arrive from the minors (blown out arms, equally ranked position players are usually better, etc). I am not sure what the Twins will do with him since they are so far out of the race.
i’ve got ackley and jennings stashed in my 3 year keeper but considering adding lawrie (keeping beltre for 2 more year at $3, have espinosa for $2). i’m in last for steals and near the bottom in avg. stick with jennings/ackley or get lawrie hoping for a call up and regular PT?
Trade Ackley or Jennings?
All 3 are near the same talent level. Can you carry all three for a couple of weeks? People are more interested in trading for players once they are called up. See if any get called up and then bundle the rook and someone else and go after someone like Ichiro.
i’d carry all three of them if i didn’t have furcal backing up castro. (figured furcal would be claimed off waivers even if no one will trade for him). very tempted to drop eduardo sanchez or kenley jansen to get lawrie, then trade for a 3rd (stable) closer.
great article!
Lawrie is being overrated this season due Las Vegas. At least Omaha is a relatively neutral park even though it’s in the PCL. I also think Lawrie needs more time in the minors than Mous does. though Mous does have some flaws that I think will be exploited. Namely I think pitchers will try to expand the strike zone on him leading to some early struggles.
Do you even bother looking at Lawrie’s stats or do you just assume the Las Vegas Bias?
Lawrie at Home .310/.600/.967 in 100 ABs 6 HR 23 RBI 4 SBs
Lawrie on Road .391/.707/1.153 in 92 ABs 6 HR 16 RBI 6 SBs
So think what you want but he’s better on the road.
Not to mention he’s damn young for AAA.
Great premise for this article but failed execution. Neither Jennings, Ackley nor Moustakas figure to have the immediate impact that a Lawrie or a Rizzo could, and only Moustakas has dynamite power. And you can’t have a list of elite prospects without mentioning Rizzo or Montero.
ESPN ownership? Who cares? Have you ever seen ESPN’s preseason rankings of players? I count on my opponents to faithfully refer to them every spring. It goes a long way toward my having a successful draft. ESPN fantasy players are as smart as paying for a one-hour LeBron James special.
Would you drop Lowrie for Lawrie when he is called up?
Check out Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Danny Valencia, Ruben Tejada, Mark Trumbo. I do love the future Royals lineup (Eric Hosmer now).
Moustakas, and Rizzo are my top prospects, and I guess Lawrie.
Hawksit. Dont drop Lowrie for Lawrie right away hold him for a couple games and see how he plays.