Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla

Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson

Non Keepers
Neil Walker
Dustin Ackley
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa (link)

Brian Roberts – Brian has probably the highest up and downside of any 2B going into the 2012 season. He missed most of 2011 with a concussion. If he is able to play full time and at full strength, he could put up 10+ HR and 25 SB. Also, he could barely play at all in 2012 (see Justin Morneau). There is no way he can be counted on for any production in 2012, so he should not be kept. I love him as a buy low candidate on draft/auction day though.

Read the rest of this entry »

With Matt Kemp’s $160 million extension in the news today, it’s time to take a closer look at what his 2012 will look like. After all, the near 40/40 man went sixth overall in last week’s RotoWire industry mock draft (which I will write up on Wednesday), so it’s highly relevant in more ways than one.

Thankfully, we roto-heads don’t have to worry about his defense. Or at least, most of us don’t. Some of us play in leagues with separated outfield positions, so his defense will be relevant. But, considering his value is highest to the team if he can remain a center fielder, let’s assume that he will be CF-eligible for the next three years or so.

Read the rest of this entry »

Those following the shortstop keeper posts have noticed Hanley Ramirez’s absence. Excluding Ramirez was intentional, as his ranking process deserves its own post.

From 2007-2010 he dominated the shortstop position, and fantasy baseball as a whole. Ramirez hit .319/.394/.532 and averaged 26 home runs, 82 runs batted in, and 36 stolen bases. Entering 2011, Ramirez’s production had made him a no-doubt top tier choice year in and out. Exiting 2011, Ramirez is something of a question mark. In addition to a .712 OPS, Ramirez missed the final two months after having surgery to repair his right shoulder—the same shoulder that was operated on after the 2007 season. Ramirez reportedly injured the shoulder diving for a ball in early August, but missed 15 games in June with sciatica and numbness issues. Seemingly healthy, Ramirez looked like his old self in abusing the month of July to the tune of an .896 OPS, providing no answers to whether the sciatica issue relented, or if something else contributed to his poor first three months.

Ramirez did improve each month, although, it’s hard not to when you put up a .558 OPS in April and .666 in May with his talent level. Concerning is Ramirez’s continued decline in power. His isolated power dipped from .239 in 2008 to .175 in 2010, with a .201 offering in 2009. Reports suggest Ramirez is hale and hearty, but it’s hard to be optimistic that a player with two shoulder surgeries and a steady decline in power output is going to bounce back to form.

So, where does that leave Ramirez? If you think he rebounds to an MVP caliber level once again you’d obviously put him in the first tier. What if, like me, you have reservations? I’m inclined to believe he belongs in the second tier with Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus and Jimmy Rollins. There are some pessimists out there; would placing him in tier three along with Emilio Bonifacio, J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta make sense? A reasonable argument can be made for each scenario, and that means Ramirez, who is a polarizing figure in the real world, is now the subject of much debate in fantasy, too.

All keeper leagues have their own unique rules. Over the next few weeks, I will look over a few different formats to show some ways to take advantage of different systems. Here are the rules for one type of league. They are close to the rules for a couple of leagues I am in:

Each team is allowed up to a certain number of keepers (I will use 9 as an example). For each keeper, the highest round draft pick will be lost. For example, if you keep 6 players, you will not draft until the 7th round, losing picks in rounds 1 to 6. A player can be kept forever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Almost everyone who played in an ottoneu league got some upsetting news last week when arbitration results were posted. I, for one, was pretty unhappy to discover that Eric Hosmer was no longer on my FanGraphs Experts League team.

But I can take solace in the fact that I am far from alone, particularly when it comes to Hosmer – nearly 43% of Hosmer owners found themselves without their young first basemen as of November 1. And he isn’t the only player whose owners should be starting a support group.

Read the rest of this entry »

This week we move onto tier four of the American League starting pitcher keeper rankings. This appears to be the last of the tiers comprised of pitchers who could still truly remain targets in mixed leagues. We also welcome our first rookie into the mix, which is always exciting. As a refresher, here is how the first three tiers went…

Tier 1:
Justin Verlander
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester

Tier 2:
Jered Weaver
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
David Price
James Shields

Tier 3:
Michael Pineda
Max Scherzer
C.J. Wilson
Brandon Morrow

Without further ado…

Tier 4:

Matt Moore

Many years ago, rookie pitchers were banned from my fantasy teams. Given the existence of TINSTAAPP and the unreliability of the young and inexperienced, it was relatively easy to avoid these pitchers in mixed leagues. However, I have seen the light and I now evaluate rookies on an individual basis and no different than any other pitcher. Moore is currently the top pitching prospect in baseball and looks to have a rotation spot with the Rays heading into 2012. Amazingly, the 23-year old lefty has never posted a K/9 below 11.5 at any minor league stop, or during his super short stint with Tampa Bay this season. His control has also been good, and it looks like he will be around league average in inducing ground balls.

He is not going to average nearly 96.0 miles per hour with his fastball as a starter all year, but I would guess he settles in between 93 and 94, which is still fantastic, and even more so for a lefty. Yes, it was only over 9.1 innings, but man that 14.2% SwStk% is ridiculous. That might have a little to do with the quality of his stuff in this early PITCHf/x look that finds that his fastball has a lot more movement than average, while his curve ball could be a lethal strikeout pitch. Obviously, don’t go crazy with your expectations, but any pitcher with this type of strikeout potential and history of punch out rates deserves all the hype he gets.

Ricky Romero

I am a fan of Romero and took an in-depth look at him last month. Pitchers who combine a good strikeout rate, decent enough control and induce tons of ground balls are the type I want on my fantasy team. Though I do think he has a bit of strikeout rate upside, a low-7.0 rate is essentially what pushed him into this fourth tier, rather than the third. His ERA is going to jump back into the mid-3.00’s next season as his luck runs out, but he should generate good fantasy value once again.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Jimenez was one of the toughest pitchers for me to rank. Of course, that is no surprise after I called him the head-scratcher of the year. I am not all too concerned about his inflated ERA. Most of that was just poor fortune. What does scare me is the huge drop in velocity. Falling from 96.1 miles per hour to 93.5 is a dramatic decline and not to be taken lightly. It killed his SwStk%, which fell below 8.9 for the first time ever and actually came well below the league average. In addition, the Indians infield defense is not supposed to be very good, though Jimenez’s GB% was at its lowest mark since 2007. There are lots of question marks here, but we know what he is capable of and so I could not possibly justify ranking him any lower. And since his missing velocity is a mystery, he certainly wasn’t going to be ranked any higher.

Gio Gonzalez

For the second year in a row, Gonzalez outperformed his SIERA and xFIP rather significantly. The ballpark probably has a bit to do with it, but I am still betting his true talent level is closer to these metrics than his actual ERA the past two seasons. His poor control means he will never help your WHIP and playing in front of a mediocre offense is going to limit his wins, even if he has won 31 games the last two seasons. That suggests a downside of just a two-category contributor, which is why he is not ranked higher. Of course, he is still plenty valuable with that strong strikeout rate and above average ground ball percentage.

Derek Holland

Holland likely saw his perceived value increase with his overall postseason performance, when he posted a 3.38 ERA. His skills this year were solid all around, yet unspectacular. However, the most exciting observation is that of his fastball velocity. It jumped 2.1 miles per hour, which is huge. Surprisingly though, the increased velocity did not lead to a spike in his SwStk% or K%. Fastball velocity has a pretty strong correlation to strikeout rate, for obvious reasons, so if he could sustain the jump, I would expect his strikeout rate to rise, potentially returning to the 8.0 range. His control may regress a bit next season given his mediocre F-Strike%, but a better strikeout rate will offset that, and his slight ground ball tilt could lead to an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range.

Let’s finish up the fourth tier since we managed to get past the two most polarizing players (Shane Victorino and Matt Holliday) without starting a land war in Asia. These are the last National League outfielders that you can keep and feel comfortable about it — and they have their own discomforting details. You might describe both parts of this fourth tier as the group you’d like to trade if you can get strong (younger) value back in your keeper leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

I know a lot of you have been asking about Hanley Ramirez’s whereabouts in these tiers. I’ve purposely excluded him simply because I honestly don’t know where to include him. I’ll have a whole discussion on his rank come Friday. You can hurl your insults at me then. For now, on to Tier Four.

Alexei Ramirez $9

There may not be a more consistently mediocre hitter than Ramirez. Over the last three seasons his wOBA’s are .319, .322 and .319. He’s hit 15, 18 and 15 home runs. He’s driven in 68, 70 and 70 runs. His stolen base total was cut in half this past season, but from 2008-2010 it was 13, 14 and 13. It’s safe to say he likes duplicates. His plate discipline and batted ball numbers have been steady as well. He’s not a star and really doesn’t have the potential to be one. What is he? He’s an average shortstop who benefits from playing in a hitter friendly park. There will be no surprises one way or another in keeping Ramirez.

Yunel Escobar $5

Speaking of average shortstops, Escobar fits that bill nicely. Where Alexei Ramirez is lacking in average and on-base-percentage, those are areas Escobar does well. I’m overlooking his 2010 season for a number of reasons. Excluding that year he’s never hit below .288 nor had an on-base-percentage under .366. His career 54.9 percent ground ball rate takes away any power potential he may possess. He was greatly helped by the Rogers Centre in 2011, hitting .321/.416/.480 there; a .226 point difference in OPS from his road games. Escobar was a pleasant surprise in 2011, flying under the radar and going later than he probably should have in most drafts due to his rocky 2010. He’s the last of the shortstops you should consider keeping.

Alcides Escobar $4

The only asset Escobar possesses on the offensive side of things is his speed. He stole 26 bases last season and has stolen as many as 42 at the Triple-A level. He had some hot streaks last season, posting a .357 wOBA in June and a .372 in September. In the other four months he failed to muster anything higher than a .278. If you’ve drafted properly Escobar shouldn’t be starting over any other shortstop you have in a standard league. Unless you’re desperate for steals, he’s more of a bench player and profiles to a fringe starter in deeper leagues.

Ian Desmond $4

Being a slightly better version of Alcides Escobar isn’t a compliment. They each cannot hit for average or take a walk, but Desmond hits for more power, granted he’s not exactly Tulowitzki-like in that category. Unlike Escobar he failed to have any exceedingly good months, peaking with a wOBA of .348, otherwise riding along in the sea of obscurity. He has a minor league track record of hitting success, but in his two full MLB seasons that has yet to translate. There’s double digit home run potential and he’ll steal you ~20 bases, but he’s below par in runs, runs batted in, average and on-base-percentage.

Using Zach Sanders’ super-fantastic-shiny-new Fantasy Value Above Replacement auction value tool, we’ve covered just about every last third baseman worth his salt. This will be the last installment of the third base keepers as we’re pretty well out of keepers to discuss.

To recap, Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria made up the very thin first tier.

The second tier looked like this:

Brett Lawrie
Pablo Sandoval
Ryan Zimmerman
Adrian Beltre
David Wright
Aramis Ramirez
Kevin Youkilis

Third Tier:

Alex Rodriguez
Mark Reynolds
Michael Young
Chipper Jones
Edwin Encarnacion
Ryan Roberts
David Freese
Mike Moustakas
Read the rest of this entry »

Allow me to state up front that this was easily the most difficult tier to get a handle on. Within this volatile batch lies a smorgasbord of youngsters on the rise and vets on the decline, as well as versatile across-the-board accruers and single category studs.

Before we unveil this tier, I must first extend my appreciation to Dayton Moore for swooping in to my rescue — just in time, no less — so I wouldn’t have to rank my arch nemesis, Melky Cabrera, who for the record would have slotted in at the end of this crop. I think.

Read the rest of this entry »