We’ve looked at four tiers worth of National League Outfield Keepers. That’s 13 dudes, or at least one keeper per team in a 12-team NL-only. If you’re in a traditional keeper league — one in which you keep fewer than eight players — then we’ve probably come to the end of your more attractive keepers. So many of the remaining options are buy-low guys better acquired at a draft or auction, or they are solid performers with real flaws that don’t figure to go away. Or they are older players that you are just keeping because nobody will buy them from you.

But let’s look at the best of the rest, shan’t we?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros are moving to the American League in 2013. We’ll be breaking this down in many different ways in order to help NL- and AL-only owners prepare for the moment in the best possible manner, but… for many leagues this won’t matter much. The Astros are just that bad.

For example, mixed-league re-drafters pretty much won’t care at all. Even in 2013, are there any current Astros that will see their draft status change much with the move? Okay, Wandy Rodriguez will be in his final year of his contract and he would be a 34-year-old starter moving to the more difficult league. There’s a player that would see his draft stock drop that year. But will he even be on the Astros roster by then? He seems like a trade candidate.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the end, friends. Yes, it’s the fifth — and final — tier of the RotoGraphs keeper rankings for 2012, American League outfielder style. No doubt, owners in very (very!) deep AL-only keeper leagues may notice a name or two that they are considering as potential keepers isn’t included among the full ranks. As is, there are more players included at this position than at most others, so frankly, I’m choosing to cut things off before we have to consider debating the relative keeper merits of a recently-injured Josh Reddick, a 54-year-old Bobby Abreu and a utilityman disguised as an outfielder who goes by the name of Ryan Raburn. You’ll forgive me, won’t you? (Either that or ask me your remaining conundrums in the comments.)

If you’ve followed along this far: Congratulations! You’ve been entered to win a prize of some as yet determined, but ultimately inconsequential, value. Thanks for playing.

Let’s finish this puppy off.

Read the rest of this entry »

We are getting near the end of the AL pitcher keeper rankings and this may or may not be the last tier. These are basically the last couple of guys I would truly be satisfied keeping on my team. Everyone else is just blah and no one really stands out from the crowd. To recap…

Tier 1:
Justin Verlander
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester

Tier 2:
Jered Weaver
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
David Price
James Shields

Tier 3:
Michael Pineda
Max Scherzer
C.J. Wilson
Brandon Morrow

Tier 4:
Matt Moore
Ricky Romero
Ubaldo Jimenez
Gio Gonzalez
Derek Holland

And off we go…

Tier 5:

Jeremy Hellickson

On the surface, Hellickson had a fantastic rookie season, posting a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings. The performance even resulted in Rookie of the Year honors. However, as has been discussed quite a bit over the past month, there are a lot of questions about Hell Boy next season. You are all well aware by now about the huge discrepancy between his xFIP/SIERA marks and his ERA. That would normally be a major for me, which is why many pitchers with strong ERAs this year won’t sniff these rankings. However, I am quite confident his skills will improve enough to the point that his ERA and ERA estimator metrics will converge.

No, the strikeout rate is not going to jump near a batter per inning or above, where it sat during his minor league career. The change-up problem is very real and not going to go away overnight. However, his called strike percentage should still rise a bit next year and all he needs to do is keep his SwStk% stable to enjoy a K/9 surge. At the very least, I think his strikeout rate gets above 7.0, which will not only increase his fantasy value given his contributions in that category, but will push his xFIP/SIERA marks down to meet his ERA. I expect him to finish the year somewhere around a 3.75 ERA, which will allow him to maintain decent fantasy value, but this time backed up by his peripherals.

Justin Masterson

I was a big Masterson fan back in 2010, but the talk of him being unable to succeed versus lefties apparently subconsciously influenced my opinion. So naturally after I lose my optimism, he goes out and performs in 2011 like I expected in 2010. This time, he was much improved versus lefties, as he cut his walk rate in half, while maintaining the rest of his skill set against them. He also enjoyed better luck on balls in play and in stranding runners, and even managed to post a below average HR/FB ratio.

His SwStk% and strikeout rate did decline, which is a concern, especially since he threw his fastball about 84% of the time. Whether his slider usage rebounds next year is anyone’s guess, but it does offer the potential for strikeout rate upside. In addition, since he remains a two-pitch pitcher, any talk of him developing a change-up could be huge news. Though this would likely knock his stellar ground ball rate down a notch, it would certainly increase his punch outs and lead to even greater fantasy value.

I hate closers. Despise them. Maybe this is a result of being an Indians fan. Jose Mesa tricked me into thinking he was lights out, then imploded at the worst possible time (although we all know Tony Fernandez deserves more of the blame). Maybe it is the endless stream of closing mediocrity I have had to watch since then. But since you are reading this on Rotographs and not an Indians blog, you have probably guessed that this really stems from fantasy baseball.

Before I dive too deep, let me begin by saying that if you are playing in a traditional 5×5 league, you can probably ignore this. If your league counts Saves but not Holds, you probably should not hate closers. I finished 4th from the bottom in saves in the lone 5×5 I played last year, and that is not where you want to be. However, if you are not playing in a league that places an extraordinary value on saves, this may be for you. It is mostly written from the perspective of the ottoneu FanGraphs Points scoring, but applies to any league where holds and saves are relatively equal (or both worth nothing).
Read the rest of this entry »

Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla

Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson

Non Keepers
Neil Walker
Dustin Ackley
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa (link)

Brian Roberts – Brian has probably the highest up and downside of any 2B going into the 2012 season. He missed most of 2011 with a concussion. If he is able to play full time and at full strength, he could put up 10+ HR and 25 SB. Also, he could barely play at all in 2012 (see Justin Morneau). There is no way he can be counted on for any production in 2012, so he should not be kept. I love him as a buy low candidate on draft/auction day though.

Read the rest of this entry »

With Matt Kemp’s $160 million extension in the news today, it’s time to take a closer look at what his 2012 will look like. After all, the near 40/40 man went sixth overall in last week’s RotoWire industry mock draft (which I will write up on Wednesday), so it’s highly relevant in more ways than one.

Thankfully, we roto-heads don’t have to worry about his defense. Or at least, most of us don’t. Some of us play in leagues with separated outfield positions, so his defense will be relevant. But, considering his value is highest to the team if he can remain a center fielder, let’s assume that he will be CF-eligible for the next three years or so.

Read the rest of this entry »

Those following the shortstop keeper posts have noticed Hanley Ramirez’s absence. Excluding Ramirez was intentional, as his ranking process deserves its own post.

From 2007-2010 he dominated the shortstop position, and fantasy baseball as a whole. Ramirez hit .319/.394/.532 and averaged 26 home runs, 82 runs batted in, and 36 stolen bases. Entering 2011, Ramirez’s production had made him a no-doubt top tier choice year in and out. Exiting 2011, Ramirez is something of a question mark. In addition to a .712 OPS, Ramirez missed the final two months after having surgery to repair his right shoulder—the same shoulder that was operated on after the 2007 season. Ramirez reportedly injured the shoulder diving for a ball in early August, but missed 15 games in June with sciatica and numbness issues. Seemingly healthy, Ramirez looked like his old self in abusing the month of July to the tune of an .896 OPS, providing no answers to whether the sciatica issue relented, or if something else contributed to his poor first three months.

Ramirez did improve each month, although, it’s hard not to when you put up a .558 OPS in April and .666 in May with his talent level. Concerning is Ramirez’s continued decline in power. His isolated power dipped from .239 in 2008 to .175 in 2010, with a .201 offering in 2009. Reports suggest Ramirez is hale and hearty, but it’s hard to be optimistic that a player with two shoulder surgeries and a steady decline in power output is going to bounce back to form.

So, where does that leave Ramirez? If you think he rebounds to an MVP caliber level once again you’d obviously put him in the first tier. What if, like me, you have reservations? I’m inclined to believe he belongs in the second tier with Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus and Jimmy Rollins. There are some pessimists out there; would placing him in tier three along with Emilio Bonifacio, J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta make sense? A reasonable argument can be made for each scenario, and that means Ramirez, who is a polarizing figure in the real world, is now the subject of much debate in fantasy, too.

All keeper leagues have their own unique rules. Over the next few weeks, I will look over a few different formats to show some ways to take advantage of different systems. Here are the rules for one type of league. They are close to the rules for a couple of leagues I am in:

Each team is allowed up to a certain number of keepers (I will use 9 as an example). For each keeper, the highest round draft pick will be lost. For example, if you keep 6 players, you will not draft until the 7th round, losing picks in rounds 1 to 6. A player can be kept forever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Almost everyone who played in an ottoneu league got some upsetting news last week when arbitration results were posted. I, for one, was pretty unhappy to discover that Eric Hosmer was no longer on my FanGraphs Experts League team.

But I can take solace in the fact that I am far from alone, particularly when it comes to Hosmer – nearly 43% of Hosmer owners found themselves without their young first basemen as of November 1. And he isn’t the only player whose owners should be starting a support group.

Read the rest of this entry »