Archive for Keeper Strategy

A few people have asked to see the breakdown of certain positions in our recent staff mock draft, and since I am loathe to turn down good suggestions for content this time of year, here are your National League starting pitchers in the order in which they were picked. Remember that this is a keeper draft, so age played a big role in some of these picks. Picks are labeled with (Round.Pick)

Clayton Kershaw (2.8)
Roy Halladay (2.10)
Cliff Lee (3.3)
Tim Lincecum (3.10)
Cole Hamels (3.11)

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Oops. I messed up. Although I was aware that the FanGraphs mock draft on Sunday night used a keeper format, I missed the dynasty aspect. That’s what happens when you arrive just before your first round pick and can’t see the pre-draft banter. That makes quite a difference and would have dramatically changed my strategy. But hey, I still think my team would win in 2012! They would just collapse due to old age soon after. Here is a refresher of my (now flawed) strategy and my first three picks. Now let’s get to my remaining picks from the first ten rounds…

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Monday, Chris Cwik introduced a series of columns we’ll be doing on Sunday’s RotoGraphs mock keeper draft by looking at rounds 1-3. I’ll be analyzing rounds 4-6 today; this is the point where strategies started to diverge a little bit with respect to how much risk teams were willing to take on and how much to focus on youth over the need to win in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

As more trades, free agent signings and roster moves happen, I’ll continue to look at the resulting impact on prospects for the 2012 season. In this edition…

Why the Cubs’ acquisition of David DeJesus is a good thing, whether Jonathan Papelbon killed the fantasy value of a Phillies’ relief prospect and how owners are going to wind up hating Chien-Ming Wang.

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We got the RotoGraphs team together for a mock dynasty draft, the results of which I believe you can see here. (Just remember that Brandon Wood is a placeholder for Nolan Arenado, Anthony Vasquez = Danny Hultzen, Hector Gomez = Jurickson Profar, and Anthony Slama = Trevor Bauer.)

My team seems strong and young, at least to me. My core infield is Dustin Pedroia, Mike Morse, Brett Lawrie and Elvis Andrus, and I love starting the draft with the infield at the premium positions. Got some love in the outfield for my Jay Bruce pick earlier today, and even though I waited longer than anyone not named Podhorzer for starting pitchers, I ended up with Michael Pineda, Dan Hudson and Ricky Romero. Maybe I’ll write about all this in the future.

But maybe the most interesting thing, at least today, is that I took Ryan Braun with my second-round pick in this dynasty league mock.

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Last night, the RotoGraphs crew got together and conducted our first mock draft of the season. The draft, held at Mock Draft Central, was a standard 5X5 keeper/dynasty league draft. Rosters requirements were as follows: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, CI, MI, UTIL, 9 P, 5 BENCH. Throughout the week, we’ll have articles analyzing the draft. I’ll kick things off with my thoughts about the first couple of rounds.

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We FanGraphers decided we couldn’t wait any longer. Why wait until March when you could draft NOW?! Not only did we mock it up last night, but we assumed a keeper league. WOAH. We gathered 12 of our most intelligent, hilarious and handsome writers, used standard roster sizes minus one catcher and drafted five reserves. I know you are dying to find out how the action unfolded, but before I begin the process of unveiling the winning team (mine, obviously), I will share my keeper league philosophy/strategy for the draft.

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C.J. Wilson is headed from the 2011 American League Champs to the 2011 American League West Division Runners-up (somehow, I don’t think they will be raising that last banner in Anaheim any time soon). This has huge implications for the division – the Angels finished 10 games out in 2011, with Wilson producing a WAR of 5.9. Move those 6 wins off the Rangers and put even half of them on the Angels, and you have yourself an awfully tight race.

But there are rather large implications for fantasy owners, as well. Wilson’s ERA, WHIP, K, and Wins — the traditional Roto stats — will all be impacted by the move, as will stats like HR, 2B, 3B, and BB, which impact many leagues, including most ottoneu leagues. There are a few things a fantasy player should look at in evaluating this type of change, and Wilson to LAA presents a unique change where some of the changing factors are easier than normal to isolate. Of course most of you can probably predict that a move to Anaheim will help Wilson’s value, but that isn’t really the point — this is also a chance to look at how to evaluate the impact of a scenery change on a pitcher.

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‘Tis the season of wheeling, dealing and spieling.

Baseball’s Hot Stove season gets all sorts of coverage. Among the general questions that can be applied to just about any scenario are: Which big name is rumored to be signing here? What trade chip would be a perfect match there? And does Buster Olney ever actually sleep?

While the transactions of note generally involve big leaguers signing with or being traded to new teams, one angle that often gets overshadowed is how those moves effect prospects. Sometimes, an inking or a deal by the parent club can be good news for minor leaguers, but many times, that’s not the case. What looked only yesterday to be a clear path to playing time for a prospect ready to contribute, instead has suddenly become a circuitous detour along a bumpy road with indecipherable signage, more than a few potholes and the ultimate destination — the majors — nowhere in sight.

With that in mind, buckle your seat belts as we take a look at a pair of young players whose 2012 stocks have been impacted head-on by some recent moves.

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No, not Thanksgiving dinner leftovers. Two weeks ago for my last keeper rankings post, I wasn’t sure if tier five would be the final tier. Well, I have decided, it was. So now it is time to take a look at those that just made the cut, or the leftovers, if you will. To refresh your memory…

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