Before agreeing to join Chad Young in the management of his dynasty franchise, I had never really co-managed a team. There were a few situations in which I drafted a team and handed it over (and vice versa) but never a true collaborative process. In a properly deep league (like dynasty), having an associate is an enjoyable experience.
A couple weeks ago, I lamented the state of trading in my dynasty league, The Devil’s Rejects. I run a team with Chad Young in this 20-owner, 45-player roster, keep-28 league. At the time of my last piece, Chad and I had run into a snag. When we tried to trade good veterans for prospects we were told to take a hike. When we tried to trade prospects for good veterans, we were told to take a hike. Frustrating…
Tell me if this sounds familiar. You try to acquire a top prospect using a high quality established veteran – say J.D. Martinez or Charlie Blackmon. You’re quickly rebuffed. Sensing the possibility of market distortion, you try to sell your top prospects – like Nomar Mazara. You’re offered piles of dross.
Or how about this? You try to sell an over-30 core player. Crickets. You try to buy an over-30 core player. You’re told, and I quote “there’s no one on your roster that would get Robinson Cano.” Said roster still includes Martinez, Blackmon, Mazara, and many other quality keepers.
We’ve had our first big offseason trade in the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two. Chad Young and prospect guy Marc Hulet combined for a doozy. In the aftermath of the trade, Chad and I discussed the relative value of his players versus similar guys I had available. While I’ll refer to our ottoneu league, today’s topic has implications for most keeper leagues.
On the ottoneu Slack community, this week featured an interesting debate on the merits of spending on Mike Trout at an ottoneu auction. There were two things posited about Trout:
I disagreed, arguing that unless the market was messed up, paying fair value for any player should not hurt you unless that player underperforms. Agreement was not to be found, so data needed to be found instead.
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There is just over a week left in ottoneu arbitration (11/14 deadline!) and rather than rehash what Brad Johnson and I have stated in the past, I thought I’d look at arbitration from the point of view of the allocation target.
I’ve gone ad nauseum about what I try to do when I make my allocations, but it can be valuable to relfect on my reactions to what my teams are getting hit with. If something causes me angst, it’s probably a good way to go after my opposition, too.
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First base prospects are probably the easiest to analyze for fantasy and dynasty purposes. At other positions, particularly up the middle, we’re left to guess future production. Some guys grow, some just adjust well to major league pitcher (Joe Panik), and others linger for years before flashing upside (Zack Cozart). Unlike those skilled positions, a player does not become a first base prospect if he’s not already demonstrating serious talent at the plate.
With that in mind, let’s talk about my four favorite first base prospects. Three of these guys are adjacent to the majors which means they’re owned in any self-respecting dynasty league. This article isn’t about guys you can find for free, it’s meant to highlight the biggest up-and-coming names at the position.
Last week, Brandon Warne reviewed his FanGraphs Staff League ottoneu team, and noted my second place team (man, I hate typing that) was a hard-to-explain $295 over the cap, pre-arbitration.
A commenter wondered “how badly CY mortgaged the future with that payroll.” I responded that I didn’t, really – but the question is, how? Every year, ottoneu owners go for broke, swapping their farm for elite talent, assuming the next step is a rebuild. This is my look at how spent big but feel set to reload rather than rebuild.
This past season may end up going down as the year of the prospect. So many good rookies got their promotion to the majors like Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Noah Syndergaard, and Lance McCullers. It is time to look at finding the next batch of rookies. By using just a handful of minor league stats, I have created basic prospect rankings for 2016.
I have played around with prospect rankings for a while and just recently publish my 2015 ZOBRIST rankings which looked at older potential hitter breakouts. I have had some personal player rankings using just the player’s stats, but nothing worth publishing. Well, I finally took the few step forward by stealing some ideas from a couple of my fellow writers. First, I was able to add position values to the rankings after helping Carson Cistulli work on his minor league WAR values. The final piece came after reading a recent article by Tony Blengino at ESPN where he gives credit to the player’s age compared to the level’s average age.
Earlier today, we published my conversation with Joey Votto about aging, and within the post is a graph that didn’t necessarily fit the narrative but should contain an interesting tidbit for we fantasy players.
Take a look at this graph again, except instead of looking towards the end of the graph where the old guys are hanging out, look at the beginning of the graph. Under 25, it looks like hitters with pull percentages under 45% have a little more growth left in them than their pull-heavy counterparts.
