My Home League: Keeper Questions
As mentioned before in these digital pages, my home league is a mixed league keeper format with 12 teams. The 29-man rosters + 10 prospect list each makes transforms what would normally be a pretty shallow league into one where it’s nearly as deep as Ottoneu. With a 5 keeper maximum, the ability to trade draft picks and built-in keeper inflation, there are a lot of wrinkles to consider when building, or for me, more accurately rebuilding. As a refresher, it’s a 6×6 league with total bases and holds as the extra categories, and on-base percentage replacing batting average. For reference, my prospect list can be found here.
A quick run down of my season goes as following:
Step 1. Blow the draft (Passing on Josh Donaldson for Stephen Strasburg hasn’t exactly worked out)
Step 2. Burn a lot of picks next year attempting to build a roster
Step 3. Probably finish no higher than fourth
Step 4. Try not cry
Step 5. Cry a lot
Step 6. Look to see what I can do in 2016
Okay, so I head into next season without my first, fifth, sixth and seventh round picks. I moved them in a deal for Carlos Santana, Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Jay Bruce and Felix Hernandez. It was huge price, but I did it relatively early in the season, May 11. Anyways, I’m hovering at sixth right now, and realistically I have no chance at a top-3 finish, so time to look ahead. I have to call up Gregory Polanco and James Paxton before the end of the season or I’ll lose them from my prospect list and they’ll eligible for next year’s draft. I’ll definitely make the call with Polanco as my first keeper at 29th round value next year, however I’m less sure about Paxton, even at 28th round value. His string of injuries plus my already strong pitching staff make me uneasy, especially if I have to use three keeper slots on pitchers.
Assuming I only go with Polanco and not Paxton, I have another four keepers to play hang on to. I have some no-brainers before the decision making process gets tough.
Corey Kluber — He was kept as my 21st rounder, as I had him on my prospect list before his breakout in the majors. Thanks Cistulli.
Scott Kazmir — This was a steal, as free agent pickups (assuming they weren’t drafted and dropped), hold a ton of value and upside. I hung on to Kazmir for the price of my 28th rounder last year. He’s being kept.
Xander Bogaerts — My 29th rounder last year. To not keep him would be a move that would and should get me kicked out of my league. Funny story, one of the owners dropped Joe Mauer during his bonkers 2009 season. Said owner is no longer in the league.
Those three players plus Polanco leave me one final keeper. The following are my options, with some pros and cons. They’re listed in order of where I drafted or picked them up. League rules require me to submit a list of potential keepers, up to 10, before I post my final five keepers. Dilemma, thy name is roto-ball.
Jake Odorizzi, 10th round — My love of Odorizzi and his 10 percent swinging strike rate is pretty well known. His strikeout rate isn’t quite what I hoped it would be, yet I can’t complain about a 3.02 ERA. Odorizzi’s 3.74 xFIP and 3.70 SIERA aren’t quite as shiny, but hanging on to Odorizzi, especially so cheap, is enticing.
Lorenzo Cain, 11th round — Cain has cut some strikeouts while maintaining his speed and average, and then to top things off he added some power this season. Via Baseball Heatmaps, Cain’s average fly ball distance this year is 285 feet compared to 260 last year, a good sign for his home run increase. That said, his .300+ AVG isn’t particularly valuable, though his current .366 OBP would be welcome on any team in the league. I’ll have to take a closer look at Cain before I do anything.
Adam Lind, 14th round— Strong value, however I feel like this season represents his upside, not normal level of play. I doubt I’ll keep him, but I’m entertaining the thought. Lind will make the preliminary list of potential keepers and that’s probably as far as he makes it.
Nick Markakis, 19th round — Basically the same situation as Lind. Markakis is 31 — he’ll be playing his age-32 season next year — and is enjoying a strong year. A .338 BABIP is helping offset his declining power numbers, however I’m not sure I can keep him, even at this price.
Marcell Ozuna, 22nd round — Here is where the real world and fantasy baseball throw me for a loop. Ozuna crushed Triple-A pitching after being demoted, and 2016 will be his age-25 season. His power upside is undeniable and if he gets traded to a team that will give him plate appearances, Ozuna could be my final keeper.
Free agent pick ups (29th round value)
Danny Valencia
Gregory Bird
Delino DeShields Jr.
Valencia is enjoying a big year, yet I’m only considering him due to his cheap price. He’ll be playing his age-31 season next year and while he’s crushed the ball this year — and his BABIP reflects that — I’m not sure I can hang on to him as one of my final five keepers.
Bird’s power upside is huge and his double-digit walk rate is very enticing. That said, I don’t see a clear path to playing time ahead of him.
DeShields is probably the one I’d hang on to among the 29th rounders. He’s basically the only center fielder on the Rangers, and as such I don’t see him losing playing time when Nomar Mazara (probably) gets called up next year.
With the core of Polanco, Kluber, Kazmir and Bogaerts, as well as post-draft call ups of Noah Syndergaard, Jorge Soler, Miguel Sano and Joc Pederson, I have a solid team, even when accounting for the huge loss of so many draft picks. I’m not sure I’ll be able to compete for the title, but with a few breaks and a strong draft I could surprise.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
This post is the longest Rotographs comment ever.
Ha! It really is. Do I get an trophy? Maybe just a “Participant” award?
You should give that back.
Im not sure why youd even think about markakis or lind. They are both old, and would they really go higher in next years draft?
Yeah, things shallow out quickly for hitters. Five keepers + prospects really hurts the player pool.
I think id go polanco/delino with the last two.
At their prices i like delino more than cain, hes been consistently atop the order and they probably end up with similar OBPs/SBs.
I could see keeping Ozuna too, the power potential is nice that late.
an important question is how many of these last guys you will be able to keep NEXT year
There’s not limit to how long you can keep someone, their price just goes up each year.
For example, Trout was kept at 29th last season, and was bumped up to a 19th round pick this year.
I was referencing the actual number of keepers you may keep. I imagine you have prospects that you will have to keep next year, so perhaps this last keeper you choose won’t even be kept next year. That would allow you to maximize the one year value of this keeper spot
Cain or Ozuna. And based on the 11 round keeper value disparity I’d lean Ozuna.
but with all the keeper inflation, it could be more like an 18th round pick vs. 29th round pick. Still 11 rounds, but there’s a premium on getting the better talent
I would definitely go with Cain, I am a strong believer in him maintaining this form for probably 2 more years. Ozuna is too risky imo, and Odorizzi is out because like you mentioned using 3 keeper spots for SPs is not good.
CAIN – easy peasy
Certainly Cain and Polanco are the way to go, I would think.
Question about the prospect rule, as I may want to add such a thing into my own league somehow:
Can you call up a prospect at any time during the year (and they inherit the 29th round price for the following yea), or only during the draft before the season begins? And I assume once you call them up, there’s no demoting them back to your prospect list… regardless of their MLB actual status.
Yes, you can call up your prospect any time and he is kept at 29th round value. And yeah, no going back down on a prospect list once you call them up, regardless what their club does to them in real life, like Ozuna.
I’m keeping Bryant and Price (mandatory pitcher). Which leaves one out of Gomez, Betts, and Sano. I just traded for Betts, so I’m thinking him. 7X6 H2H. Extra hitting cat is total bases.
Mandatory pitcher keeper? Hmm, interesting. Do people keep a token late round reliever to skirt the rule?
Unfortunately, you keep them as your first three rounders. The commish (a friend) is so resistant to change it’s ridiculous. I already got him to add another keeper, and I’m working on him coming into the 21st century.
What do you think?
Sorry, so distracted by the rule I forgot to answer!
I’d keep Sano over Betts as 3B isn’t as deep as OF. Betts losing 2B really hurts.
Is it worth it to keep Felix Hernandez as a second-round keeper next year? I have no doubt he’ll be good but after this season the price is looking a bit steep. I have some good young hitters (Rizzo, Trout, Springer, Grichuk, M. Franco and D. Peralta) and one pitcher (Kluber) who I am thinking I would bring better value.
Second round is a bit high for me. Weird to say that about Felix, but yeah.
DeShields, if he keeps 2B. Cain is choice #2.
Now help me pick 4, standard ESPN $260 budget, with OBP, 14teams:
$1 Schwarber
$1 Corey Seager
$1 Justin Turner
$9 Kluber
$11 Jose Fern
$15 Puig
$27 Rizzo
I think Schwarber is automatic. So is Kluber. Then I think Fernandez (barring health) and Seager.
Schwarber, Kluber and Seager are no doubters.
I’d go Rizzo next, because in 14-teamers I’ll take premium bats and not look back. I wouldn’t argue much with Puig over Rizzo, but I have a lot of concerns about Puig.
Schwarber, Kluber, Fernandez, and Rizzo. I like Puig, but I think those 4 guys will have the largest differential between expected cost/value and your keeper cost. (This assumes that Fernandez comes back and shows he’s healthy)
I don’t keep Corey Seager at this point. I’m not sure if David thought it was Kyle.
DeShields even if he doesn’t play 2B ever again, his BB and XBH potential could be elite among the SB guys.
I’m in a pretty standard 12 team 5×5 H2H where we each keep 3. I’ve got Rizzo, Tulo, Altuve, Marte, Arenado, and Schwarber. Ideas?
Schwarber, Tulo then Altuve for me. Give me all of the up-the-middle players who can stick.
I only mentioned him as an afterthought, but Schwarber is already the #2 catcher in any league, isn’t he?
David Wiers: telling others how to win their league while never finishing in the money in his home league, ever. <3
3rd in 2010 bro!
I’d go Cain, Dave. But I need some help myself- as of now would you keep Grichuk in the 12th or Granderson in the 15th?
Should mention its a 15 tm Roto.
Grichuk for me.
Valencia is interesting. He’s been a platoon bat but is looking great this year. The A’s though – they love platoons and messing around with playing time. Inconsistent playing time is frustrating as an owner. Fun for rate stats, but counting stats suffer.
Of the choices you listed, the answer is Cain. No need for analysis.
14 team OBP Keeper League, can keep 5 each year and give them a contract up to five years (can only give 1 contract of each length, so only 1 5 year contract, 1 4 years and so on).
Im definitely keeping Sale and Rizzo (both 3 years left). Schwarber (5 years), Sano (4 years) and Hosmer (3 years) would be my new contracts. Would you change any of those three for one of the following list: Grichuk, Soler, Belt, Lindor, Tyson Ross?