The Change: Time to Punt? Time to Sell?

Dynasty leagues are great. In a time of year where standard leagues are losing interested members by the bushel, dynasty leagues have one last big question that keeps everyone at the table. Is it time to sell? Do I look to the future right now, or do I buy? What should the buying look like?

These things are hard to prove with numbers, but maybe some recent experience, and some help from our readers, can flush these out better for those of staring at that very decision. It’s really a look at two essential questions that face us when we’re not in the top three slots in our league, in the end.

For those of you not in dynasty leagues, the first part will still be useful — we’ll look at what sort of numbers you’ll need to show in your rate categories if you want to undo the terrible that you have done so far. If you can’t push that boulder, maybe you should re-focus on other parts of your standings.

Should I give up on that category? Should I sell?
The first thing that goes into this decision is a frank assessment of the standings. And the first part of *that* decision is a good look at how much you can really gain in the standings. Often, that decision is tough because you’re looking at ratios instead of counting stats.

So let’s take a look at my 12-team roto league. It’s not a dynasty, but it is close to the most popular settings in the game, and it can serve as a guide. If you listen to the podcast, this is the league in which I spent 20% on pitching and have been working the wire hard. My pitching is still struggling, and so the question is if I try to try and trade a hitter for pitching, or if I should continue doing what I can with the wire.

This table shows you my current ERA and WHIP, the leaders in both categories, and what I would have to do to catch the leader. The last row shows what I would have to do to gain four points in each category. There is a 1350 inning limit in this league, just to frame the analysis, and I’ve thrown 750.

	ERA	WHIP
Me Now	3.68	1.21
Leader Now	2.64	1.06
Me to Catch Leader	1.34	0.87
Me for Four Points	2.83	1.05

Trying to catch the leader from the bottom is folly, obviously, but it is serviceable to see how bad it is. Even with regression from the leader, you’d have to basically pitch better than anybody in your league has pitched to date going forward.

Even trying to milk four points out of a bad staff requires that you basically pitch like the best pitching staff in your league has pitched so far. That’s sobering. That half-season millstone hanging around your neck is very heavy. Even with a trade, it’s probably worth both a) doing this math for your league and/or b) reining in whatever cocktail napkin math you’re doing with the standings. Give yourself a point or two in the rates, and see what that does for your line.

It’s also actually useful to turn volume stats into rate stats so you understand how many you can get there. I need steals in this league, so I’ll just do it for steals here.

	SBs	SB/G	HRs	HR/G
Me Now	42	0.048	117	0.135
Leaders Now	90	0.107	128	0.144
Me to Catch Leader	48	0.187	11	0.156
Me for Four Points	16	0.107	N/a	N/a

Would you look at that. I need to be as good as the leaders to get four points in steals. At least it’s do-able. And, of course, if you trade for steals, you’ll be taking it from someone in front of you going forward. Just make sure that you’re actually moving the needle. A few steals isn’t going to solve this for me, obviously. And on the hitting side? I better just keep going, and make sure that whatever speed I get doesn’t ding me too hard. I’m not going to fix both of these issues.

In this case, I’m in fifth place and have pushed this rock as far as it might go. There are some easy points in saves, and maybe a trade could get me those steals without hurting my power, maybe I could get this 80-point team to 85 or even 90 points. The leader has 111 points. I’d sell in this case.

Look through the different standings, but try to do so with a little rigor, and don’t give yourself too many points. Because if you dream too hard, you’ll end up trading Mookie Betts for Miguel Cabrera and then finding yourself plummeting in your dynasty standings and forced to reverse course.

Tear Down or Slowly Build?
This is essentially the second part of the question, and it’s uniquely dynasty-oriented. It’s the question of how to do the rebuild. Do you trade for Franklin Barreto or Stephen Piscotty? Do you go for massive upside that’s years away, or do you try to find some undervalued young major leaguers and build for next year?

Here’s where we have to leave numbers behind, and discuss the settings of your league. Because it really depends.

My longest-term league is a 12-teamer. We have 19 starting spots and another ten bench pieces, and four or five DL slots, and then ten minor league protectable prospects. In that league, I’ve been forever, mercilessly, selling prospects since day one. I’ve won five out of eight years and have finished second twice more. I’m in second, and I just sold Addison Russell for Tyson Ross and Mark Trumbo and Brad Ziegler and didn’t even care if I lost the trade. I needed a little pitching and a left fielder and a closer and I got it.

You can be ruthless in these types of leagues for a few reasons.

For one, your prospects have to hit the very upper reaches of their projections to become playable. We’re only starting the best 228 players in the league, and three-to-six of them are usually relievers. You need Addison Russell to be one of the best 120 players in the league, and quickly, in order to make it worth holding him, especially once he becomes a major leaguer.

You can build a good team just by picking up Addison Russell the year after he debuts and isn’t kept by his owner. I actually drafted Jose Altuve in this league. Victor Martinez is my DH, Yasmani Grandal is my backup catcher, because they were on the waiver wire this year. Long gone are Chris Carter, Matt Harrison, Jeff Samardzija, Jackie Bradley, Jr, tons of prospect draft picks, and so on and so forth. Here are the players I drafted as prospects that are still on my team: 1) Mookie Betts; 2) Jung-ho Kang; 3) Matt Harvey. End list.

The deeper the league, the more this stops being true.

In my 20-team dynasty league, you can own any player that’s playing anywhere at any time. High schoolers are owned. I immediately entered the situation and sold young players, bought old players, and tried to ride veterans to the top. I peaked at third last year, slid to fifth in the first half this year, and then made the bad decision to sell Mookie Betts for Miguel Cabrera. Hey, it’s what my philosophy said to do. I can do this with the bounce-backs and the guys that weren’t top prospects, right?

Maybe not. Because with the sheer amount of prospects owned in this league, even the not-top-prospects are usually owned. I got lucky with Mookie Betts, just picking up off the wire, and I drafted Ketel Marte (and turned him into Jay Bruce and Jason Grilli) just by watching the fringes of the prospect world. But it’s pretty tough to ride Mookie Betts and Ketel Marte and all the Anthony DeSclafanis and Garrett Richardses of the world into a championship, not if you don’t have a few of the top veterans in there.

Which you won’t get on the wire. I can currently choose from Mike Pelfrey and Gregor Blanco if I want to fish around on the wire, to get my drift. And, drafting after 560 players are kept doesn’t really leave the draft as a great option for anything other than long-shot pitchers, relievers, and more prospects. I’ve drafted plenty of pitchers, but so far the best hitter I’ve drafted is Kevin Kiermaier.

With active owners, the top teams boast star-laden lineups, and the bottom teams own all the prospects. The middle is a terrible, lonely place where you just feel sad and alone and nobody wants to trade with you. Try peddling Nate Karns for a win-now veteran hitter in a 20-team dynasty if you want to see what that life is like.

So I’ve come around. It’s hard as all heck to admit you’re wrong, and try to change. I’m currently shopping Carlos Carrasco, Justin Upton, and Miguel Cabrera for prospects and I feel terrible. I can’t believe the names I’m looking at. They’re 18, they’ve got huge bust rates, most of them will never help my team. It’s nasty business for someone who’s sold almost every prospect he’s ever fallen in love with.

And yet, it’s probably necessary in the deepest of dynasty leagues. Because, next year, all my guys will be a year older, and my best prospect will be the 29-year-old Korean on the Pirates. Well, him or Alberto Triunfel.

Sigh.