12/4/19

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THE NON-TENDER TEAM

• C: Josh Phegley (3:03)
• 1B: C.J. Cron (4:55)
• 2B: César Hernández (14:55)
• 3B: Maikel Franco (23:12), Travis Shaw (31:40)
• SS: José Peraza (39:11)
• OF: Domingo Santana (45:08), Kevin Pillar (50:36), Steven Souza Jr. (59:33)
• P: Blake Treinen (1:06:22), Taijuan Walker (1:07:00)
• Ranking the Hitters (1:08:00)

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I was originally going to cover all of these moves (sans the Miami ones because they hadn’t happened yet) yesterday when I wrote up San Diego’s busy offseason, but that might’ve been pushing 2500 words so I broke it up into two pieces. Let’s get caught up on the latest offseason deals:

Mike Moustakas to Cincinnati

While the terms of deals aren’t a major concern for us in the fantasy realm (at least until they start to play a role in dictating playing time), it feels like Moose is finally getting the money he deserved the last few years. After making $12.5 million the last two seasons for production worth at least three times that, he’ll be paid $64 million over the next four seasons to play in Cincinnati and make a more permanent move to the keystone. With Eugenio Suárez locked in at 3B, Moose will now be an everyday 2B and also cement Nick Senzel’s future in CF.

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A total of 53 players were non-tendered prior to Monday night’s deadline, and a number of fantasy-relevant players were included in that group. Domingo Santana and C.J. Cron fit that description, and if they can successfully come back from injury, so may Steven Souza Jr., Taijuan Walker and Aaron Sanchez.

What is less clear is whether Blake Treinen, José Peraza and Kevin Gausman can still be called fantasy-relevant. They certainly were as recently as 2018, but each of them fell so far in 2019 that they failed to make the top 500 in ADP in the 2 Early Mocks. Yet, upon closer examination, all three have the potential to have comeback seasons in 2020. Even though they may not get much attention in fantasy circles this offseason, I’ll make the case as to why each is deserving of a spot on your late-round flier or watch list.

Blake Treinen

In 2019, Treinen lost all of the gains he made in his strikeout and swinging strike rates in 2018, and he even lost his long-held knack for getting grounders. This combination led to the escalation of Treinen’s ERA from 0.78 to 4.91 and to him losing the Athletics’ closer role to Liam Hendriks. The loss of whiffs is likely related to a decrease in average sinker velocity from 98.0 to 96.7 mph, as well as a drop in average sinker spin rate form 2371 to 2250 rpm. He was generally locating his pitches higher (see below), which would explain his middling ground ball rate (42.8 percent) and HR/9 ratio (1.38).
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We’ve actually enjoyed a pretty busy offseason thus far. Today, I’m focusing specifically on the big moves of the Padres and then tomorrow I’ll dive into the other moves including the big news this afternoon that Mike Moustakas is headed to Cincinnati.

Padres get Trent Grisham and Zach Davies; Brewers get Luis Urías and Eric Lauer

Grisham actually joins a relatively crowded outfield with Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, and Franchy Cordero also on board, though given how active the Padres have already been this winter, I wouldn’t be surprised if they had plans to clear the logjam a bit before the spring. Grisham’s season obviously ended on a down note with the fielding flub that hurt the Brewers in the wildcard game, but now he gets a fresh start in San Diego.

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In a shocking free agent move, the Chicago White Sox have signed Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73 million-dollar deal. Several teams were said to be in on Grandal as he was not only the best catcher available this offseason, but also one of the very best catchers in all of baseball. After showing some flashes with San Diego, Grandal broke out with the Dodgers and wound up with a healthy 116 wRC+ over his four seasons in LA.

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The Braves continued the upgrading of their bullpen, which they began at this year’s trade deadline, by signing Will Smith on Thursday. In inking the lefty to a three-year, $40 million deal with a fourth-year team option, they added a reliever who struck out 96 batters over 65.1 innings and recorded 34 saves for the Giants in 2019. Smith’s ex-teammate (and now new teammate), Mark Melancon, was effective as the Braves’ closer down the stretch this season, but I was probably not alone in assuming that Smith would go into spring training as the team’s new closer.
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I’ve been slow at combing trough and reporting on any actionable fantasy news. I had to draw a line today since I had dozens of additional articles to go through. Here is some useful information with more to come Monday.

• The Reds are mudding up their playing time situation by trading for Travis Jankowski and picking up Freddy Galvis’s 2020 option.

• Aaron Hicks eventually had Tommy John surgery and will miss a few months to start next season.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, the team announced.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters there is an eight-to-10-month timeframe for Hicks’ recovery.

This makes him pretty much unknowable except in leagues with unlimited DL slots.
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With so many trades going down, I’m just going to go through a few and what it means to their rest of season fantasy value

Trade 1

• Astros get Zack Greinke
• Diamondbacks get Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Joshua Rojas

Zack Greinke: The Astros grabbing Greinke made all kinds of waves in the real baseball world but in the fantasy game, Greinke gets a small value boost. The deal is that he’s already a start-every-game player and he locks himself even more as one. His owners don’t have to do anything but pat themselves on the back for drafting him in the spring.

Josh Rojas: Of the players coming to the Diamondbacks, Rojas is the only one with any 2019 fantasy impact and it’s small. Alex Chamberlain has a soft spot for Rojas since he’s made the Peripheral Prospects twice. While not touted at all, he’s a nice power (15 MILB HR), speed (28 SB) threat with a good batting eye (12% BB%, 14% K%). He’ll need to be called up first but if he does, owners should take notice, and monitor his playing time.

Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer: No 2019 value.

Trade 2

• Phillies get Corey Dickerson
• Pirates get a PTBNL and cash

Corey Dickerson: This trade would normally be made at the second trade deadline. The Phillies would add some outfield depth as they near the playoffs. So now, they are adding Dickerson (.931 OPS) to take Adam Haseley’s (.811 OPS) spot in left field until Jay Bruce (.825 OPS) returns from the IL.

The problem is that these three (and Bryce Harper) all bat left-handed. No obvious platoons exist. It might take a week or two to see if the trade creates anything actionable. Owners need to be watching this lineup closely to see how the playing time gets allocated.

Trade 3

• Brewers get Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz
• Giants get Mauricio Dubon

Ray Black: The 29-year-old Black just throws smoke with his fastball averaging 99 mph this year. The problem with his fastball is that he doesn’t exactly know where it’s going (in the minors, his BB/9 top 9.0 several times) and when hitters do square it up, it flies for homers. In two partial major league seasons, the fastball has a 15% SwStr% and 22% GB%. Besides the fastball, he also features a slider with an 18% SwStr% and 57 GB%.

Black has had some issues staying healthy which have limited his major league chances. He’s not going to immediately slot into the closer’s role but I’d not be surprised if he does at some this season with Josh Hader going back to the fireman’s role.

Drew Pomeranz: The Giants were forced to remove Pomeranz from the rotation even though he was dominating hitters with a 10.7 K/9. The strikeouts were his only positive trait with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 helping lead to a 5.86 ERA. Most owners are just going to dismiss him but I’m intrigued to see if the Brewers tap into his potential.

One obvious change is to get rid of a pitch or two. His pathetic sinker is the obvious drop. While his change has been better this season (10% SwStr%), it has been historically bad (6% SwStr%). He could go four-seam (11% SwStr%), curve (10% SwStr%), and cutter (12% SwStr%) and be a serviceable streaming option. The Brewers added Wade Miley at the deadline last year, got him refocused, and now he’s one of the biggest surprised of 2019

Mauricio Dubon: Shelly Verougstraete covered Dubon in detail in a separate article. All I will say is don’t sleep on him one bit. I’ve been hoping he could get some major league playing time since he was with Boston. A five-tool player which will be mixed-league worthy if he could just get on the field.

Trade 4

• Astros get Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, Cal Stevenson
• Blue Jays get Derek Fisher

Aaron Sanchez: Like Pomeranz, Sanchez has struggled to keep a reasonable ERA (6.07) with all the walks (4.7 BB/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9). By just logging onto his player page, I can see the first adjustment the Astros will implement, drop his s(t)inker. It’s only getting a useless 47% GB% and 5% SwStr%.

On the other hand, his four-seamer has an 8% SwStr% and a flyball inducing 35% GB%. After the Astros got rid of Gerrit Cole’s sinker, Sanchez’s sinker will some be history. Besides the sinker, his good curveball (15% SwStr%) and OK change (10% SwStr%) provide a swing-and-miss alternative to finish off batters.

It seems like Jose Urquidy is the odd man out of the Astros rotation with the additions Zack Greinke and Sanchez. If Sanchez can’t adjust and continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Urquidy gets moved back into the rotation.

Derek Fisher: I don’t understand this pickup at all for the Jays. In 312 major plate appearances, he’s hit 10 HR, .201/.282/.367, 35% K% with 9 steals. While the being a power-speed threat is nice, he’s not much of a hitting threat. A sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to cut it in the majors. He’s Quad-A bat who may get on a hot streak once or twice during his career and become fantasy relevant.

Joe Biagini: A nice bullpen arm but has some fantasy value before the trades as the backup to Ken Giles. Now he has no value.

Cal Stevenson: Again, Shelly Verougstraete wrote him up.

The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

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In the aftermath of last Thursday’s trade that sent J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins to the Phillies, I’m started to look into how much of a hit Jorge Alfaro’s fantasy value would take going from Citizens Bank Park to Marlins Park.

The exercise turned out to be a convoluted mess. Ultimately, it led to a finding that could prove useful in identifying players who are due for spikes or dips in their power numbers.
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